Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have declined due to easing tensions in the Middle East, with London spot gold closing at $3,337 per ounce (down 1.9% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 772 yuan per gram (down 0.9% week-on-week) [1] - The market is closely monitoring the risk of renewed U.S. tariffs, which could boost safe-haven demand for gold if significantly increased [1] - The U.S. "Great Beautiful" Act has been signed, which will increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, maintaining a loose fiscal stance [1] Group 2: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 [2] - Despite short-term resilience in employment data, the job creation structure is unhealthy, heavily reliant on government and education sectors, while small business hiring remains low [2] - The outlook suggests potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, supported by expectations of weakening employment and rising unemployment [2] Group 3: Future Signals for Gold ETFs - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs include trade negotiations and tariff developments, as well as the People's Bank of China's gold purchasing activities [2]

Group 1 - The long-term drivers for gold prices remain supportive, but there is hesitation for upward movement due to high price levels [1] - The recent decline of the US dollar has contributed to a rebound in gold prices, with expectations for further upward movement if US employment data indicates a weaker economy [2] - The ongoing credit crisis in US Treasury bonds and the trend towards de-dollarization support a long-term bullish outlook for gold [2][3] Group 2 - Central bank purchases of gold have significantly increased, with over 1,000 tons bought in the past three years, indicating a shift in market dynamics where gold is viewed as a store of value and diversification tool [3] - The weak US dollar and pressure from the current US administration for interest rate cuts are interrelated factors supporting gold prices [3] - Market focus remains on upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The recent 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction was disappointing, with a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking the second instance in history where the winning yield exceeded 5% and the largest tail risk in six months [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid high fiscal uncertainty and low policy credibility [1] - Concerns over the U.S. high debt levels and the potential expansion of the deficit due to the proposed "Beautiful America Act" are seen as fundamental reasons for the weak auction results and a new wave of selling U.S. dollar assets [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding debt of the U.S. federal government reached $36.2 trillion, with foreign investors holding slightly over $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [3] - The allocation of U.S. debt to foreign investors, including central banks, has dropped to the lowest level since 2019, at only 58.88% during the latest 30-year bond auction, continuing a trend of decline since October of the previous year [3] - Japan and the UK, both facing turmoil in their bond markets, are the top two foreign holders of U.S. debt, with Japan increasing its holdings by $4.9 billion in March 2025, while China reduced its holdings by $18.9 billion, falling to the third-largest holder [3] Group 3 - China has been gradually selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, which is viewed as a warning to the U.S., and has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April 2025 [6] - The increase in gold reserves reflects China's trend towards diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, while its significant U.S. debt holdings are a result of decades of trade surpluses with the U.S. [6] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed a strong desire for the U.S. to reassess various tariff measures, particularly on automobiles, which are crucial for Japan's economy [6][9]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周整体缺乏宏观数据的显著指引，市场情绪表现也较为谨慎。不过周中特朗普一度重新强调对欧盟的关税税率应该有 5 0 %，此番 言论使得市场陷入短期的r is k o ff情绪之中，黄金显著反弹，铜价回落的幅度并不深。随后市场可能更加担忧对于铜增加2 5 %的关税 税率，导致COMEX铜价显著上涨，地区之间的价差再次扩大。 1、上周金铜显 著走强 上周海外市场不确定性较前期再次增强，主要因美债信用危机引发市场担忧，同时特朗普再度提及关税问题，威胁对欧盟商 品直接征收 5 0% 关税引发欧盟强烈反对，市场避险情绪由此回升，贵金属价格随之反弹。中长期来说黄金的上行趋势并未 改变，海外不确定性持续叠加美元的信用逻辑依然支撑金价走强，关注海外潜在流动性风险。 基本金属市场复盘 （一）COMEX/沪铜市场观察 上周 COMEX铜价震荡偏强，上周铜价整体仍然缺乏显著驱动，周内大部分时间横盘震荡为主，缺乏宏观数据的显著指引， 市场情绪表现也较为谨慎。周中特朗普一度重新强调对欧盟的关税税率应该有50%，此番言论使得市场陷入短期的risk off情 绪之中 ...

美债又崩了！ 5月15日，美债收益率集体大涨，各期限收益率均超4%，30年期美债收益率逼近5%大关、10年期美债 收益率升破4.5%关口。 01 见 本次美债抛售与4月有何区别？ 这一幕，让人不禁联想起上月的情景。那么，这两轮美债抛售有何异同点？ 据人民日报分析，4月以来美长期国债收益率快速上升及其导致的市场巨震，主要受四重因素驱动： 一是美国政府滥施关税引发美国经济再通胀预期； 二是外国投资者购美债意愿进一步下降； 三是美国债收益率单边飙升导致国债基差交易快速平仓； 四是美国债作为全球安全资产的声誉被严重削弱。 人民日报进一步分析， 不排除未来几个月内美长期国债收益率继续显著上升的可能性 ，这无疑将给美 自身带来更多风险。美债信用严重降低，最终动摇的是美元霸权根基。 02 机构观点不一 国内机构对美债看法存在分歧。 中金公司指出，4月下旬以来美国关税态度有所软化，5月12日中美贸易谈判取得重大进展，提升风险偏 好，美股与美元都明显反弹，但这并没有解决美元美债避险能力下降的问题，如果再次面临负面冲击， 美元资产可能仍比较脆弱。此外，特朗普政府减税政策可能导致美国债务加速扩张，利空美债，进一步 弱化其避险功能， ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 28 日 黄金战术调整与战略机遇：从关税缓和到美债 信用溢价的再定价 ——"黄金时代"贵金属系列报告（三） | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 戴璐 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021475 | dailu@gtht.com | 报告导读： 从观点上，我们给出判断：短期黄金正在面临调整压力。 本文主要在逻辑层面进行了梳理，在回顾了今年以来黄金核心主驱动之后，我们认为 1）美国关税谈判 角度正在从"情绪拱火"切换至"缓步解决"，后续美方或面临较大的谈判让步可能。2）美国经济的现实数 据尤其是硬数据（剔除调查类数据）不差，基准利率预期难以快速下行，美联储天然的滞后性导致其降息动 力有限，黄金上涨想象空间亦短暂被限制。3）美债方面短期不具备"流动性风险"和"系统性风险"，10Y 4.5%一线不看向上突破，前期黄金涨势中交易"美债信用危机"的涨幅面临调整。 而往后看，我们认为这样的调整仅是战术层面的，战略层面黄金的趋势上行难言轻易结束（我们将在 后续报告探讨黄金资金 ...