Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the furnace - starting rate in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall industrial silicon start - up rate is expected to peak, and supply pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand side: Organic silicon demand is stable, recycled aluminum alloy maintains rigid procurement, and polysilicon demand is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Overall: If supply decreases and polysilicon demand improves, the industrial silicon market may reverse at the price bottom. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are key variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Supply side: In October, polysilicon production is expected to be flat month - on - month, with a loose supply pattern and increasing futures warehouse receipts, which may suppress the market [10]. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is slowing down, and procurement demand is limited. The industry's high - inventory situation persists, and the de - stocking cycle has not started [10]. - Overall: In the short term, if there is no strong policy by the end of November, the polysilicon futures may be under pressure. In the long term, its trend depends on policy strength [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8925 yuan/ton, down 0.28% daily and up 0.11% weekly. The trading volume and open interest have different degrees of change [12]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts also show certain trends [13]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different weekly changes, with some showing increases and some decreases [19]. - The prices of mid - stream and downstream products such as industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, and polysilicon also have corresponding fluctuations [19]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of different grades of industrial silicon in the East China region shows seasonal characteristics. The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 49,963 hands, with different changes in each delivery warehouse [26][31]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,260 yuan/ton, down 1.43% daily and 6.35% weekly. The trading volume and open interest also change [33]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts have their own trends [33]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry, such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, have different degrees of change [39]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis rate of the polysilicon main contract shows seasonal characteristics. The basis of the main contract is 2170 yuan/ton, with a significant daily increase. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7870 hands [44][45][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current macro sentiment is positive, and the overall commodity market is strong. With the increase in both supply and demand of industrial silicon and the rise of polysilicon prices, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term, and the downside risk is limited [3][5]. - For polysilicon, policy expectations have sparked market speculation. Before the measures are implemented, the market can repeatedly speculate on the rectification expectations, which will have a substantial positive impact on future deliverable brand companies. However, after the measures are implemented, the market will react according to the measures, and one should be vigilant about the situation of "strong expectations, weak reality" [11][12]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated and strengthened this week. The weighted index contract closed at 9,709 yuan/ton, up 11.54% week-on-week. The trading volume was 957,248 lots, down 50.89% week-on-week, and the open interest was 568,379 lots, down 50,087 lots week-on-week. The spread between SI2509 - SI2511 maintained a back structure, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 683 lots to 49,710 lots [3][15]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market quotes of the silicon industry chain were stable this week. The supply side saw stable silica prices, and the market quotes of industrial silicon and silicon powder increased overall, with a weekly increase of over 20%. The operating rate of industrial silicon increased slightly, and the output increased by 605 tons week-on-week. On the demand side, the organic silicon market quotes increased by 14.75% week-on-week, with a stable operating rate and high current output. The aluminum alloy market was still in the off - season, with stable quotes and downstream procurement on demand. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.755 million tons, the aluminum alloy inventory increased, and the recycled aluminum alloy inventory decreased [3]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentally, industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, and the pressure of oversupply persists. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the resumption of production expectations are gradually being realized, with a risk of further inventory accumulation. The improvement in polysilicon profits is expected to drive the demand for industrial silicon, but one should be vigilant that if the "anti - involution" measures are implemented and enterprises adjust production such as production cuts, it will suppress the demand for industrial silicon. The linkage logic between industrial silicon and polysilicon in the second half of the year can be divided into two stages: the first stage is dominated by integration expectations, and the second stage is the verification period after the measures are implemented [3]. - **Nanhua's View**: The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing, and with the rise of polysilicon, it will drive industrial silicon to fluctuate and strengthen. In the short term, the decline of industrial silicon is limited, and it should be viewed with a bullish and fluctuating mindset [5]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on industrial silicon at low prices in the short term; pay attention to the opportunity to sell put options [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising electricity prices will increase the production cost of industrial silicon; the cost side has limited room for further contraction in the short term, and there is strong cost support; the resumption of production expectations of downstream enterprises are gradually being realized, increasing the demand for industrial silicon [7]. - **Negative Factors**: As the wet season approaches, the decrease in electricity prices will increase the operating expectations of factories in the southwest region, and the production capacity will be released as scheduled; if the polysilicon industry integration is successful, the demand for industrial silicon will further decrease; high inventory suppresses market prices, and the de - stocking process is slow [8]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened this week. The weighted index contract closed at 51,319 yuan/ton, up 16.62% week-on-week. The trading volume was 1,238,561 lots, down 28.91% week-on-week, and the open interest was approximately 322,759 lots, down 25,674 lots week-on-week. The spread between PS2509 - PS2512 maintained a back structure, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 240 lots to 3,020 lots [10][15]. - **Industry Performance**: The supply side of the photovoltaic industry chain performed well this week. Polysilicon and the downstream silicon wafer segment maintained their quotes. The raw material market improved, with the silicon powder price increasing week-on-week and active market transactions. Large polysilicon manufacturers held back supplies to support prices, and the N - type polysilicon price index increased by 1.71%. The output of polysilicon enterprises increased week-on-week. On the demand side, the N - type silicon wafer market quotes increased by about 4%, and manufacturers started to support prices due to the increase in raw material quotes. The battery cell and component market quotes remained stable. The weekly output of the silicon wafer market increased by 0.1 GW week-on-week. In terms of inventory, the polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.85 GW week-on-week, and the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased by 6.02 GW week-on-week [10]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expectation of lower electricity prices as the wet season approaches is expected to reduce the production cost of polysilicon. At the same time, the production schedule in July increased month-on-month, and the supply increment is continuously being released. The downstream is affected by the photovoltaic rush - installation tide, which has overdrafted future demand in advance, resulting in limited expected demand growth in the second half of the year. The inventory side continues to face high inventory pressure of silicon materials and downstream products, and the market de - stocking process has not shown a substantial marginal improvement, and inventory consumption still takes time. From the "anti - involution" logic analysis, if an effective integration agreement can be reached in the industry in the future, it is expected to reverse the current dilemma of the polysilicon industry. The current market speculates on the supply - side reform expectation in advance, pushing up the polysilicon price, which is expected to improve the situation of polysilicon production enterprises in advance and increase their production enthusiasm [11]. - **Nanhua's View**: Policy expectations have triggered market speculation enthusiasm. Before the measures are implemented, the market can repeatedly speculate on the rectification expectations, and the increase in futures prices will have a substantial positive impact on future deliverable brand companies. However, after the measures are implemented, the market will react according to the measures, and one should be vigilant about the situation of "strong expectations, weak reality" [12]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Pay attention to the positive spread trading opportunity between PS2509 - PS2512 [13]. - **Positive Factors**: The industry may introduce a capacity integration and elimination plan in the future. If a substantial integration agreement is reached in the industry, it is expected to promote the improvement of the polysilicon industry pattern; the current situation of high open interest in the near - month contracts and a small number of warehouse receipts [14]. - **Negative Factors**: If the industry integration and elimination plan fails to be implemented and enterprises continue their current normal production rhythm, the inventory will continue to accumulate [14]. 2. Prices and Spreads - **Futures**: Provided the price, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, as well as the price data of some industrial silicon and polysilicon - related products [15]. - **Spot**: Included price trend charts of silicon - related products such as silica, industrial silicon, and silicon powder in different regions [24][25][27]. 3. Upstream - Industrial Silicon - **Operating Rate**: Showed the seasonal operating rate data of metal silicon and industrial silicon in different regions [30][31]. - **Output**: Presented the weekly output data of industrial silicon in different regions, including Xinjiang, the northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The total output increased by 605 tons week-on-week to 41,560 tons [33][35][37]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.755 million tons to 71 million tons. Also provided the seasonal inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions [38][39]. 4. Downstream - Organic Silicon - **Operating Rate and Output**: Showed the monthly production volume of organic silicon DMC and the monthly export volume of primary - form polysiloxane [47]. 5. Downstream - Silicon Aluminum Alloy Primary Aluminum Alloy - **Operating Rate and Output**: Provided the seasonal operating rate, monthly production volume, and weekly social inventory data of primary aluminum alloy [49]. Recycled Aluminum Alloy - **Operating Rate and Output**: Showed the seasonal operating rate, monthly production volume, and weekly factory - level inventory data of recycled aluminum alloy [51]. 6. Downstream - Polysilicon Polysilicon - **Operating Rate, Output, and Inventory**: Provided the seasonal operating rate, weekly output, and total inventory data of polysilicon, as well as the average cost data of the polysilicon industry [53][54]. Silicon Wafer - **Output and Inventory**: Showed the weekly output and inventory data of silicon wafers [58]. Battery Cell - **Operating Rate, Output, and Inventory**: Provided the seasonal operating rate, monthly output, and weekly inventory data of photovoltaic battery cells [60][62]. Component - **Operating Rate, Output, and Inventory**: Showed the seasonal operating rate, monthly output, monthly export volume, and inventory data of photovoltaic components, as well as the monthly output data of N - type and P - type components [64][66][67].