1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年09月23日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间：8000-9000 | 32.0% | 87.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少，企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | 出期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].