Group 1 - The new order revealed at the Davos Forum indicates intensified competition and resource battles, with commodities showing a "polarized" pattern driven by supply-demand mismatches and policy expectations [1] - Precious metals are in a solid bull market, with silver showing better elasticity due to rising Fed rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - Silver's demand is surging due to photovoltaic needs and global inventory shortages, with domestic export controls widening the supply-demand gap, targeting a price of 25,000 yuan/kg for silver [1] Group 2 - The energy and industrial metals sector is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with a confirmed oversupply in crude oil leading to a downward price adjustment [1] - Copper is supported by AI computing power and electricity grid investment demand, with limited supply growth from mines, making it a strategic long position [1] - Aluminum benefits from reduced costs and capacity constraints, presenting a stable long position choice [1] Group 3 - Current data shows that U.S. employment and inflation are slowing, but some sectors are improving under the influence of Fed rate cuts, leading to a cautious outlook [3] - Concerns over trade friction and geopolitical risks are driving funds to preemptively allocate to precious metals, supporting prices amid rising forecasts from major global institutions [4] - The market is expected to be influenced more by U.S. economic data affecting Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disturbances, with gold maintaining a strong oscillating trend above the 20-day moving average [4]

据环球网综合多家外媒报道称，美国财政部长贝森特向美国国会致信表示，联邦政府的现金储备以及将债务控制在法定限额内的手段可能在8月耗尽。他敦 促美国国会采取行动，在7月中旬、国会休会前提高或暂停债务上限生效。美国《财富》杂志网站报道称，美国已于今年1月初触及当前36.1万亿美元的法定 债务上限，财政部一直在采取所谓的非常规措施以避免联邦债务可能出现的违约。 鲍威尔（资料图） 美国联邦储备委员会连续第三次宣布不降息后，美国总统特朗普8日抱怨说，跟美联储主席鲍威尔打交道就像"对着一堵墙说话"。 同一天，美国副总统万斯 在接受采访时称，鲍威尔"几乎在所有事情上都错了"。这是自今年1月和3月会议以来，美联储连续第三次不降息。鲍威尔当天对特朗普对他近期的批评"不 屑一顾"。他警告称，"如果已宣布的大幅提高关税措施持续下去，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓和失业率上升"。 特朗普对鲍威尔的威胁，在一定程度上挑战了美联储的独立性。世界各国之所以接受美元作为世界货币，很大程度上是出于对美联储的信任。俗话说，"流 水的美国政府，铁打的美联储"。美联储的独立性与稳定性是美元信誉的重要基石之一。尽管鲍威尔坚称特朗普无权解雇他，但媒体爆 ...