1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Douyi 2605 reached a new high after the Spring Festival and then pulled back. The spot price continued to rise, and the basis strengthened. The main contract of Doupo 2605 rebounded after the Spring Festival. The spot price of Doupo declined, and the basis weakened [4]. - High - priced domestic soybeans have sluggish sales, and Douyi may adjust at a high level. There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. South American soybeans will be on the market with price advantages. Domestic port soybean inventories are rising, and there is no auction for now. The oil mill's startup rate has not recovered, and Doupo inventories continue to decline, so Doupo will have a phased rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The main contract of Douyi 2605 reached a high of 4794 after the Spring Festival and then pulled back. The spot price of rich - brocade soybeans rose from 4440 yuan/ton to around 4560 yuan/ton. The basis of Douyi strengthened, and the futures price was at a premium. The main contract of Doupo 2605 rebounded after the Spring Festival. The spot price of Zhangjiagang 43 - protein Doupo fell from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3010 yuan/ton. The basis of Doupo weakened, and the futures price discount decreased [4]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean Situation - As of February 27, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang was 39%, in Anhui was 45%, in Henan was 49%, and in Shandong was 50%, all remaining unchanged from the previous week. High - priced soybeans have sluggish sales, and the remaining grain in the whole country is much higher than the same period last year. There is no state - reserve soybean auction for now [4]. 3.3 Import and Supply Situation - There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. The US Supreme Court ruled that special tariffs are illegal, and the US has counter - imposed a 15% global tariff. There is high uncertainty in trade negotiations as the US may visit China at the end of March to early April. Currently, the cost of US soybeans is not competitive compared to South American soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans are on the market. There is no import soybean auction recently. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills is gradually recovering, and port soybean inventories have stopped falling and started to rise. As of February 27, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.339 million tons, and port soybean inventories were 6.3 million tons, both rising from the previous week [4]. 3.4 US Soybean Situation - The US Agricultural Outlook Forum expects the new - season planting area of US soybeans to increase to 85 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%). The conflict between the US and Iran has affected agricultural products due to the strong crude oil market. The strong US soybean oil has boosted US soybeans, and the rising fertilizer prices may increase planting costs and be transmitted to agricultural products [5]. 3.5 Oil Mill Situation - As of February 27, the startup rate of oil mills was 16.19%, rising from the previous week but still not fully recovered. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5.967 million tons, rising from the previous week. The output of Doupo was 465,000 tons; the Doupo inventory of oil mills was 701,200 tons, continuing to decline from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts of Doupo were 2.9152 million tons, also continuing to decline. The inventory days of Doupo in feed mills were 9.89 days, down from the pre - Spring Festival high [5]. 3.6 Feed Demand Situation - In the breeding industry, the pig price is low, and breeding may fall into full - scale losses again. As of February 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan per head, close to losses; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 159.65 yuan per head, with losses increasing. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, continuing to decrease; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, with a year - on - year increase of only 0.5% and a month - on - month decrease for the first time in recent years. In January, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, and the culling rate decreased significantly; the output of piglets increased, but the sales volume decreased; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased again month - on - month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has fallen, and breeding has suffered losses again. In January, the sales volume of chicken chicks continued to increase, and the culling of old chickens remained at a high level. In January, the inventory of laying hens decreased again month - on - month but was still at a high level. Due to losses, breeding enterprises may be cautious about restocking again. The current high inventory still supports feed demand, but losses may lead to further capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [6]. 3.7 Market Outlook - High - priced domestic soybeans have sluggish sales, and can be supplemented through auctions and imports, so Douyi may adjust at a high level. There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. South American soybeans will be on the market with price advantages. Domestic port soybean inventories are rising, there is no auction for now, the oil mill's startup rate has not recovered, and Doupo inventories continue to decline. Doupo will have a phased rebound [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in global soybean production is the main factor putting pressure on the upward movement of the futures market. However, considering that the price of protein meal is at a relatively low level, the short - term futures market for meal may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA planting intention report at the end of the month [2][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, both the domestic and foreign futures markets showed a strong upward trend, with the foreign - market US soybean performing stronger than the domestic market. By the end of the month, the May contract of Dalian soybean meal closed at 2,833 yuan/ton, up 2.39% for the month, and the May contract of CBOT soybeans closed at 1,170 cents per bushel, up 8.61% for the month [3][9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The USDA February report made limited adjustments. The 2026/27 US soybean planting will start in May this year, and the planting area is expected to rebound. The February forum outlook estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 85 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [3][11] - **South American Soybeans**: Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage. The USDA February report predicted that the Brazilian soybean output will reach a record 180 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5 million tons. As of February 21, 2026, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 32.3%, lower than 36.4% in the same period last year, and the weather in the next two weeks is favorable for the harvest. The USDA February report predicted that the Argentine soybean output will remain at 48.5 million tons. In the next two weeks, the产区 will still be hot and dry, and there is a possibility of output reduction, but South America as a whole will still have a bumper harvest [3][11] - **China**: In 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 111.833 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7882 million tons, an increase of 6.46%. Mysteel data shows that the estimated soybean imports in China from February to April are 5.005 million, 4.8 million, and 9.5 million tons respectively. Currently, the overall supply is expected to be loose, and the inventories of imported soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills are at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of February 27, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 9.89 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 days. Last week, the operation of domestic oil mills gradually resumed, but the downstream aquaculture was in a loss, and the replenishment sentiment was average, mainly maintaining rigid demand purchases. Currently, the physical inventory level of downstream enterprises is basically the same as that of the same period last year [2][16] 3.3 Market Outlook - Currently, Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage, and the USDA February report raised the Brazilian soybean output to 180 million tons, which is expected to set a new record. The Argentine output is predicted to remain at 48.5 million tons, and South America as a whole will have a bumper harvest. US soybeans will start planting in the second quarter of this year, and the USDA forum outlook estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 85 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In China, the cumulative soybean imports increased last year, and the current supply is loose. The inventories of imported soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. Overall, the increase in global soybean production is the main factor putting pressure on the upward movement of the futures market, but considering that the price of protein meal is at a relatively low level, the short - term futures market for meal may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA planting intention report at the end of the month [2][19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Next week (July 21 - July 25), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to move upward. For soybean meal, the fundamentals of US soybeans are improving due to the hope of Chinese purchases and the trade agreement between the US and Indonesia. The current weather forecast indicates that from late July to early August, the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will decrease and the temperature will be high, which may also support the price. For domestic soybeans, the spot prices are stable, and the fundamentals such as the good growth of new soybeans have not changed much. The futures market should focus on technical aspects and the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Price Movement**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the US soybean futures price first declined and then rose. The decline was due to good weather and a high excellent - good rate in the producing areas, while the increase was because of the market's expectation of Chinese purchases, the US - Indonesia trade agreement, concerns about high - temperature weather, and the boost from the rising price of US soybean oil. There was also a large - scale export sales order of 120,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for 2025/26 delivery on July 16. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.73%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.69% [1]. - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: According to the USDA export sales report, in the week of July 10, for the 2024/25 US soybean export shipment, it was about 280,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 30%; the cumulative export shipment was about 46.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.48 million tons (about 23.9 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 270,000 tons (about 500,000 tons in the previous week); the next - market - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 530,000 tons (about 250,000 tons in the previous week), with a total of about 800,000 tons (about 750,000 tons in the previous week), which was in line with expectations (350,000 - 1 million tons). The current - crop - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were 0 (0 in the previous week), and the next - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were also 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - **US Soybean Excellent - Good Rate**: According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of July 14, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 66% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and a market expectation of 67% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: As of the week of July 18, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of the futures crushing profit increased week - on - week [2]. - **US Soybean Producing Area Weather Forecast**: According to the July 19 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (July 20 - August 3), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher (precipitation will decrease starting from July 21) and the temperature will be high, with a slightly positive impact [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Price**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean meal futures price mainly rose. The strong sentiment in the domestic market and the rebound of the US soybean price at a low level drove the domestic soybean meal futures price to break through and rise. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 2.69% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 132,500 tons, compared with about 131,600 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 185,000 tons, compared with about 184,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average weekly basis of soybean meal was about - 160 yuan/ton, compared with about - 144 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 88 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of July 11, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 790,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 7% and a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to decrease slightly next week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.31 million tons (2.3 million tons in the previous week and 1.9 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 65% (65% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (July 19 - July 25), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.24 million tons (1.97 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 63% (56% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Price**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean futures price mainly rose. The spot price was stable, the fundamentals did not change much, and the market trend was affected by the overall sentiment of the soybean and commodity markets. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main a2509 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.15% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,240 - 4,340 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in some parts of Inner - Pass regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,660 - 4,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **New Soybean Growth**: The growth of new soybeans in the Northeast producing area was good, and farmers in many areas had high - yield expectations for new soybeans. The price of old soybeans was stable, but the trading was slow due to weak demand [5]. - **Demand in Sales Areas**: The demand in the sales areas was weak, mainly for essential needs. Market dealers said that the trading volume of domestic soybeans was slower than that of the same period last year because high temperatures in many areas suppressed the terminal demand for soybean products. There was still essential demand in the market, and some dealers had restocking needs [5].