豆一冲高回落，豆粕短期反弹 2026年3月3日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主力2605合约年后再次冲高，最高触及4794后回落调整，刷新阶段新高点。现货价格继续上涨，富锦大豆市场 价由4440元/吨涨至4560元/吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面转为升水。 豆粕主力2605合约年后震荡反弹。豆粕现货价格回落，张家港43粕由3060元/吨跌至3010元/吨附近。基差震荡走弱， 盘面贴水回落。 （1）国产大豆销售迟滞，拍卖暂无。据钢联：截至2月27日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比维持39%，环比持平；安徽大豆 余粮占比维持45%，环比持平；河南大豆余粮占比维持49%，环比持平；山东大豆余粮占比维持50%，环持平。高价下， 大豆销售陷入迟滞，全国地区余粮均大幅高于去年同期。国储大豆拍卖暂无。 （2）中国后续买美豆存疑，油厂大豆到港逐渐恢复。美最高法院裁定特关税非法，而特加征全球关税至15%反制， 中方后续买美豆存疑；3月底至4月初，特或访华，贸易谈判不确定性高。当前美豆成本较南美大豆不具备优势，南美巴 西大豆迎来上市。近期暂无进口大豆拍卖。油厂大豆到港量逐渐 ...

豆类期货月报 盘面震荡偏强运行 关注月底种植意向指引 主要观点 2025 年中国累计进口大豆总量为 11183.3 万吨，同比增 678.82 万吨，增幅为 6.46%。Mysteel 数据统计预计 2-4 月份我国大豆进口到港量分别为 500.5、480 和 950 万吨，目前整体供应预期依旧宽松，油厂进口大豆及豆粕库存处于历史 同期高位。需求端，截至 2 月 27 日，下游饲料企业豆粕库存天数为 9.89 天， 环比下降 2.7 天。上周国内油厂开机逐步恢复，但下游养殖亏损，补货情绪一 般，基本维持刚需采购。目前下游企业物理库存水平与去年同期基本持平。 后市展望。基本面，目前巴西大豆处于收割阶段，USDA2 月份报告上调本年度巴西 大豆产量至 1.8 亿吨，预计将再创历史纪录。阿根廷产量预测维持 4850 万吨，南 美整体丰产。美国大豆将于今年二季度开始种植，USDA 论坛展望预估 2026 年美豆 种植面积 8500 万英亩，同比增加 4.7%。国内方面，去年累计进口大豆增加，当前 供应宽松，国内进口大豆及油厂豆粕库存均处于历史同期偏高位。综合，全球大豆 产量增加是盘面上行承压的主要原因，但考虑蛋白粕价 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Next week (July 21 - July 25), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to move upward. For soybean meal, the fundamentals of US soybeans are improving due to the hope of Chinese purchases and the trade agreement between the US and Indonesia. The current weather forecast indicates that from late July to early August, the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will decrease and the temperature will be high, which may also support the price. For domestic soybeans, the spot prices are stable, and the fundamentals such as the good growth of new soybeans have not changed much. The futures market should focus on technical aspects and the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Price Movement**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the US soybean futures price first declined and then rose. The decline was due to good weather and a high excellent - good rate in the producing areas, while the increase was because of the market's expectation of Chinese purchases, the US - Indonesia trade agreement, concerns about high - temperature weather, and the boost from the rising price of US soybean oil. There was also a large - scale export sales order of 120,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for 2025/26 delivery on July 16. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.73%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.69% [1]. - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: According to the USDA export sales report, in the week of July 10, for the 2024/25 US soybean export shipment, it was about 280,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 30%; the cumulative export shipment was about 46.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.48 million tons (about 23.9 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 270,000 tons (about 500,000 tons in the previous week); the next - market - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 530,000 tons (about 250,000 tons in the previous week), with a total of about 800,000 tons (about 750,000 tons in the previous week), which was in line with expectations (350,000 - 1 million tons). The current - crop - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were 0 (0 in the previous week), and the next - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were also 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - **US Soybean Excellent - Good Rate**: According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of July 14, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 66% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and a market expectation of 67% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: As of the week of July 18, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of the futures crushing profit increased week - on - week [2]. - **US Soybean Producing Area Weather Forecast**: According to the July 19 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (July 20 - August 3), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher (precipitation will decrease starting from July 21) and the temperature will be high, with a slightly positive impact [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Price**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean meal futures price mainly rose. The strong sentiment in the domestic market and the rebound of the US soybean price at a low level drove the domestic soybean meal futures price to break through and rise. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 2.69% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 132,500 tons, compared with about 131,600 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 185,000 tons, compared with about 184,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average weekly basis of soybean meal was about - 160 yuan/ton, compared with about - 144 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 88 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of July 11, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 790,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 7% and a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to decrease slightly next week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.31 million tons (2.3 million tons in the previous week and 1.9 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 65% (65% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (July 19 - July 25), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.24 million tons (1.97 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 63% (56% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Price**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean futures price mainly rose. The spot price was stable, the fundamentals did not change much, and the market trend was affected by the overall sentiment of the soybean and commodity markets. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main a2509 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.15% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,240 - 4,340 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in some parts of Inner - Pass regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,660 - 4,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **New Soybean Growth**: The growth of new soybeans in the Northeast producing area was good, and farmers in many areas had high - yield expectations for new soybeans. The price of old soybeans was stable, but the trading was slow due to weak demand [5]. - **Demand in Sales Areas**: The demand in the sales areas was weak, mainly for essential needs. Market dealers said that the trading volume of domestic soybeans was slower than that of the same period last year because high temperatures in many areas suppressed the terminal demand for soybean products. There was still essential demand in the market, and some dealers had restocking needs [5].