Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is soybean meal [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on August 6, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Core Viewpoint - The domestic and foreign markets are diverging. The increase in the FOB quotation of Brazilian soybean exports has led to a steady increase in import costs. The view that the mid - term center of soybean meal will move up remains unchanged [7] 5. Content Summary by Section 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3050, the opening price was 3052, the highest price was 3089, the lowest price was 3051, the closing price was 3065, with a gain of 15 and a gain rate of 0.49%. The trading volume was 573,708, the open interest was 1,487,930, and the open interest change was 24,470 [6] - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3021, the opening price was 3022, the highest price was 3047, the lowest price was 3016, the closing price was 3023, with a gain of 2 and a gain rate of 0.07%. The trading volume was 881,233, the open interest was 1,275,203, and the open interest change was - 83,385 [6] - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3060, the opening price was 3059, the highest price was 3084, the lowest price was 3053, the closing price was 3061, with a gain of 1 and a gain rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 119,894, the open interest was 630,336, and the open interest change was 4,891 [6] - **Market Analysis** - The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract at 995 cents. The Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months, which depressed the demand outlook for US soybeans. The growth of the new - season US soybeans was good, with a good - excellent rate of 69% in the latest week, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some tolerance. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening [7] - Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline [7] - Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, in a state of wide - present and tight - future. The import window for US soybeans was in the fourth quarter. As time approached, there were topics and themes for soybean meal to rise. However, China had started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans had recently decreased. Although the cost of imported soybeans in China was expected to rise in the fourth quarter, the room for imagination might be relatively limited [7] 5.2 Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report** - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, 76% in the previous week, 85% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 86%. The pod - setting rate was 58%, 41% in the previous week, 57% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 58% [10] - **USDA Export Inspection Report** - As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than expected. The previous market forecast was 250,000 - 460,000 tons, 427,734 tons in the previous week (revised from an initial value of 409,714 tons). The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 1, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 266,883 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period of the previous year [10][11] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation** - As of the week ending July 30, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 67.84%. As of the week ending July 29, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 60.3%. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages. Late - sown rapeseed was in the mid - flowering stage, and the earliest - sown rapeseed had fully set pods [11] 5.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][16][18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Next week (July 21 - July 25), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to move upward. For soybean meal, the fundamentals of US soybeans are improving due to the hope of Chinese purchases and the trade agreement between the US and Indonesia. The current weather forecast indicates that from late July to early August, the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will decrease and the temperature will be high, which may also support the price. For domestic soybeans, the spot prices are stable, and the fundamentals such as the good growth of new soybeans have not changed much. The futures market should focus on technical aspects and the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Price Movement**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the US soybean futures price first declined and then rose. The decline was due to good weather and a high excellent - good rate in the producing areas, while the increase was because of the market's expectation of Chinese purchases, the US - Indonesia trade agreement, concerns about high - temperature weather, and the boost from the rising price of US soybean oil. There was also a large - scale export sales order of 120,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for 2025/26 delivery on July 16. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.73%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.69% [1]. - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: According to the USDA export sales report, in the week of July 10, for the 2024/25 US soybean export shipment, it was about 280,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 30%; the cumulative export shipment was about 46.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.48 million tons (about 23.9 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 270,000 tons (about 500,000 tons in the previous week); the next - market - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 530,000 tons (about 250,000 tons in the previous week), with a total of about 800,000 tons (about 750,000 tons in the previous week), which was in line with expectations (350,000 - 1 million tons). The current - crop - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were 0 (0 in the previous week), and the next - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were also 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - **US Soybean Excellent - Good Rate**: According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of July 14, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 66% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and a market expectation of 67% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: As of the week of July 18, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of the futures crushing profit increased week - on - week [2]. - **US Soybean Producing Area Weather Forecast**: According to the July 19 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (July 20 - August 3), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher (precipitation will decrease starting from July 21) and the temperature will be high, with a slightly positive impact [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Price**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean meal futures price mainly rose. The strong sentiment in the domestic market and the rebound of the US soybean price at a low level drove the domestic soybean meal futures price to break through and rise. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 2.69% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 132,500 tons, compared with about 131,600 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 185,000 tons, compared with about 184,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average weekly basis of soybean meal was about - 160 yuan/ton, compared with about - 144 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 88 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of July 11, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 790,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 7% and a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to decrease slightly next week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.31 million tons (2.3 million tons in the previous week and 1.9 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 65% (65% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (July 19 - July 25), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.24 million tons (1.97 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 63% (56% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Price**: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean futures price mainly rose. The spot price was stable, the fundamentals did not change much, and the market trend was affected by the overall sentiment of the soybean and commodity markets. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main a2509 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.15% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,240 - 4,340 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in some parts of Inner - Pass regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,660 - 4,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **New Soybean Growth**: The growth of new soybeans in the Northeast producing area was good, and farmers in many areas had high - yield expectations for new soybeans. The price of old soybeans was stable, but the trading was slow due to weak demand [5]. - **Demand in Sales Areas**: The demand in the sales areas was weak, mainly for essential needs. Market dealers said that the trading volume of domestic soybeans was slower than that of the same period last year because high temperatures in many areas suppressed the terminal demand for soybean products. There was still essential demand in the market, and some dealers had restocking needs [5].

Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Core View - If the weather is normal, the domestic soybean meal market will be treated as slightly bearish in a volatile pattern. If there are changes in the weather, there will be upward potential [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.36% - 1.71%. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,468,250, and the trading volume of the 2601 contract was 463,074. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was strong, with the main contract at 1020 cents [6] - **External Market Factors**: Last week, the external market was weak. Trump initiated a new round of trade disputes, which worried the market about the impact on US soybean exports. The growth of new - season US soybeans was smooth, with a growth excellent - good rate of 66% as of July 6, and only 9% of the area affected by drought. The 7 - month USDA report had limited impact, and the demand side was still highly variable [6] - **Domestic Market Factors**: Domestic soybean meal was relatively strong compared to the external market last week, with a rebound after bottom - grinding. Nationally, soybean meal was in a inventory - accumulation cycle, with a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, and some oil mills reported full storage. However, downstream buyers were willing to make safety purchases at relatively low spot prices, providing some support. The upward elasticity mainly came from the transmission of CBOT soybean prices and US weather [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending July 10, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 350,000 - 1,000,000 tons, with 200,000 - 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season and 150,000 - 400,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 23,000 tons [7] 3. Data Overview - **Renewable Fuel Credit Quotas**: In June, the US ethanol (D6) blending credit quota was about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May. The biodiesel (D4) blending credit quota increased from 602 million gallons in the previous month to 629 million gallons in June [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and its growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season increases the demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation, and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds to the supply increment. The market price is under pressure, and the futures price shows a weak performance [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The cost of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market, but the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as international oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9482 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2550 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 711.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 5.5 Canadian dollars), and that of the active contract of rapeseed is 4947 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 78 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 245 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan) [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 328,197 lots (down 17,063 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 600,032 lots (up 49,071 lots). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 23,914 lots (down 1,157 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 19,928 lots (down 6,809 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and that for rapeseed meal is 22,685 (down 1,329) [2]. 现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5133.35 yuan/ton (up 31.96 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 204 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 120 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan). The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1470 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan). The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.56 million tons (up 4.32 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons), the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.26% (down 4.83 percentage points) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.2 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.01 million tons (down 0.54 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 63.05 million tons (up 2.05 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.83 million tons (down 0.41 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.2 million tons (down 0.1 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.8 million tons (down 0.7 million tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons (down 0.56 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 26.64 million tons (down 1.132 million tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons (down 0.87 million tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 416.7 billion yuan (down 6.8 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.78% (down 0.15 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 20.77% (down 0.16 percentage points). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.11% (down 0.23 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 15.1% (down 0.24 percentage points) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.12% (up 0.69 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.61% (up 0.04 percentage points). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.37% (down 0.09 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.1% (down 0.01 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - On June 25, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to tight old - crop supply and bullish technical signals. The July contract rose 4.40 Canadian dollars to 697.80 Canadian dollars/ton, and the November contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 714.60 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67% [2].