今天的走势 黄金上破，不断震荡上行。 今天冲高3375，快速回落。 下方调整，先看3350的位置。 此位置上方，再反弹，先看3370的位置。 黄金震荡上破，多头再起，涨势翘头。整体震荡上行，到今天反弹30美金，快涨回落调整，上方再涨破 高，看3400的关口。 今天我们3372附近，再次做空收获。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美联储内部又炸锅了，鸽派声浪不断占据上风，特别是特朗普换血美联储理事，降息支持率上 升。特别是CPI并未受到关税冲击后，美联储9月降息预期升温，再次利好黄金反弹。 另外一方面，特朗普又压不住火焰，对着鲍威尔又是一顿乱锤，内阁也是加码施压，要求9月降息50基 点。而且又开始炒热美联储换帅潮，启动逼宫模式，插手美联储独立性，美元持续贬值，推升黄金反 弹。 今天消息面 也是重要的阻力位置，反弹再破，上方延续看向3400的阻力。 不过，面临3370的位置，存在遇阻的机会。 下方承压，持续再探3350的位置。 下方跌破了此位置，持续看前低3330的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，到本月进入了连续4个月横盘，整体围绕3300大范围内调整。随着调整的持续，本月 持续围绕3300-3400的区域的调整。 操作方面， ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The T sector is currently viewed as undervalued due to market mispricing, with a core driver of price increases from export recovery yet to begin. The sector is still in a trading sentiment phase, with fundamental recovery lagging behind, presenting a left-side layout opportunity [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Export Recovery Logic**: The export recovery logic began in September 2024 when certain products were subjected to export controls, leading to a widening price gap between domestic and international markets, now approximately 200,000 CNY per ton. Monthly export volumes dropped from a normal range of 2,000 to 3,000 tons to 900 tons from November 2024 to April 2025. The government has recently redefined normal approval processes, indicating that export recovery is imminent, similar to successful precedents in rare earths and tungsten [3]. - **Impact of Photovoltaic Demand**: The pressure on photovoltaic demand is managed through price limits to protect profits rather than significantly reducing demand. The absolute value of export demand is expected to be much higher than the marginal decrease in photovoltaic demand, with industry consensus indicating that photovoltaic demand is not pessimistic [4][5]. - **Government Action Against Smuggling**: The establishment of a system to combat strategic mineral smuggling is beneficial for the T sector, as it indicates that illegal activities have been addressed, and legal exports are expected to accelerate. This marks a turning point in the export recovery process, considering reasonable civilian demand from various countries [6]. - **Company Highlights in the T Sector**: The combined market capitalization of the four companies in the T sector is approximately 70 billion CNY, providing better trading liquidity compared to last year's antimony trading. Huaxi Nonferrous, as the only listed nonferrous metal company in Guangxi, shows promising growth potential and strong expectations for capital injection. Additionally, there may be a short squeeze in tin prices [7]. - **Global Economic Environment and Inflation**: The current global economic environment shares similarities with the 1970s, with the new Federal Reserve Chairman facing political pressures that may affect independence. Global supply chains are under pressure, suggesting a potential for a return to a high-inflation era similar to the 1970s. Gold prices are expected to rise following a period of pressure testing [8][9]. - **Investment Logic for Yuguang Gold Lead Company**: Yuguang Gold Lead, as Asia's largest lead smelting plant, produces 6,100 tons of antimony oxide and 1,700 tons of bismuth annually. The company has seen its small metal recovery business revenue double in recent years, with a fourfold increase in gross profit while maintaining costs around 500 million CNY. The current valuation is estimated at less than 8 times earnings, indicating that the market has not fully recognized its value, making it an attractive investment opportunity [10].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, breaking through the 3400 mark before a sharp decline of 60 USD, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][9]. Price Movements - Gold reached a new high at 3438 before experiencing a rapid drop [3]. - The price fell below 3380, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Current support levels are being tested at 3370, with further potential decline towards 3345 [5][9]. - After a period of adjustment, there is a potential upward movement towards 3400 [6]. - Resistance levels are identified at 3433, with ongoing bearish pressure below 3400 [7][8]. Market Influences - Recent agreements between the US and Japan have contributed to a positive outlook for global trade, leading to a decrease in gold prices [10]. - Ongoing negotiations between the US and Europe are also seen as a factor in reducing market tensions, further impacting gold prices [11]. - Upcoming ECB decisions and US economic data releases are expected to influence market sentiment and gold prices [12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points for gold trading, emphasizing the importance of accuracy in trading decisions [12]. - Risk management and position sizing are crucial for maximizing profit opportunities while minimizing risk [12]. - Following experienced traders is suggested as a strategy for achieving higher accuracy in trading [12].

Group 1 - The anticipated inflation in the U.S. has not materialized despite the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump, indicating that retailers have not significantly raised prices [1][3] - U.S. importers are maintaining high profit margins, with average gross margins reported at 75% or higher, allowing them to absorb the 30% tariffs without passing costs onto consumers [1][6] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces criticism for not lowering interest rates, as the expected inflation from the tariff war has not occurred, challenging traditional economic theories [3][6] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff war has not led to the expected inflation, which raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy measures such as interest rate hikes [4][6] - The concept of inflation as a result of currency devaluation is highlighted, suggesting that the banking sector's interests may conflict with broader economic stability [6] - The potential for Powell's removal from his position is discussed, as Trump's economic strategies gain traction and are perceived as more effective [6][8] Group 3 - The article discusses the influence of "deep state" forces within the U.S. government and their impact on various sectors, including the potential for significant personnel changes in agencies like the State Department [7][8] - The article suggests that the U.S. has been providing advanced technology to Israel, raising concerns about the implications for U.S. military readiness and technological superiority [8][11] - The role of think tanks, such as the "America First Policy Institute," in shaping Trump's policies is emphasized, indicating a coordinated effort to counteract deep state influences [13]