分析师：加拿大通胀"高烧"难退 降息还得再等等 金十数据7月15日讯，宏利投资管理公司的Dominique Lapointe表示，加拿大的通胀仍居高不下，因此降 息还得再等等。他指出，尽管加拿大央行本可合理地忽略反制性关税引发的暂时性价格上涨，但鉴于 （关税成本）转嫁的全面程度存在不确定性，且可能存在其他通胀因素，央行一直不愿这么做。 Lapointe称，与此同时，加拿大尚未遭遇会迫使央行转向更宽松立场的衰退压力。不过，Lapointe认 为，失业率持续上升、产出缺口扩大，以及关税对通胀的暂时性影响愈发明晰，最终会让央行在本轮周 期中再实施两次降息。 ...

特朗普的关税战持续多时，美国并未出现各路经济学家预言的大通胀。我们知道，多出来的关税由美国进口商支付，若零售价格未经历激烈的上涨，则代表 零售商涨价不多或不敢涨价。 能维持这一局面的解释或许只有一种：美国进口商在市场上的毛利率过高，即便缴纳30%的关税后，依然有利可图。数据显示，其平均毛利率达75%，甚至 更高；同时因美国经济前景不确定，进口商不敢涨价。 特朗普的胜利也在深层势力控制的其他领域推进，例如特勤局。这个去年险些夺走特朗普性命的机构，正迎来特朗普清洗的首轮结果：6名特工被停职，几 乎可确定后续会有更多人受牵连。 既然是清洗，联邦调查局自然不会缺席——《纽约时报》刚发表文章，标题为"联邦调查局使用测谎仪测试官员忠诚度"，手段之狠可见一斑。清洗美国国务 院同样势在必行。深层势力安插的人员大量混入国务院，特朗普1.0时期便已如此，如今依旧。因此国务院将启动大裁员，主要针对数十个处理人权、民 主、难民和战争罪等问题的办公室。这些办公室的职能听来耳熟——正是深层势力控制民主党时使用的道德标签。 深层势力的全球影响 但深层势力不止存在于美国，更遍布全球，影响美国外交政策。以色列的F-16——这是连美国都没有的高 ...

大类资产配置专题报告 2025年7月1日 | 宏观金融 | 于军礼 | | --- | --- | | 研究员： | | | 从业资格证号： | F0247894 | | 交易咨询资格： | Z0000112 | | 联系邮箱： | yujunli@greendh.com | 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 成文时间：2025年7月1日星期二 方微信 A股向资金推动型上涨演化 从经济四周期配置大类资产7月篇 以伊停火，是双方为了更大规模冲突积蓄力量，战争魔盒已打 开，伊朗大概率趋于"加沙化"。康波萧条期，和平是短暂的。 原油6月的脉冲大概率只是第一波，上一轮康波萧条期的70年 代，原油暴涨是推动全球大通胀的重要因素。 证监许可【2011】1288号 美国债务货币化通胀、对等关税通胀、原油脉冲、中国反内卷 ，共同勾画出全球大通胀的曲线。 全球投资机构集体"去美国化"，卖出美股、美债、美元，全 球金融资产再配置，推动全球金融资金流向中国资产。 1年期存款利率史无前例下降至1%以下，预期居民部门储蓄资 金、保险资金加速向股市迁移。6月高股息银行ETF连续创新高。 更多精彩内容 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [10][11] - The coal supply side is experiencing a contraction, with a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is expected to recover, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality coal companies that exhibit strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends, which are expected to remain attractive investments [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of June 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 610 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1250 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while coking coal mines have a utilization rate of 83.71%, down 0.9 percentage points [10][46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 9.50 thousand tons/day (-3.03%) and in coastal provinces by 0.30 thousand tons/day (-0.17%) [10][47] 3. Coal Inventory and Transportation - As of June 12, coal inventory in inland provinces has decreased by 12.60 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 38.50 thousand tons [47] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption is in the early stages of a seasonal increase, indicating a potential recovery in demand [10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is experiencing a contraction trend due to ongoing safety inspections and negative feedback from coal prices, which may stabilize coal prices [11][12] - The demand side shows an increase in daily coal consumption in both inland and coastal provinces, indicating potential for demand release as the peak season approaches [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 611 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 66.8 USD/ton, down 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 95%, down 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33,000 tons/day (+11.76%) week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7000 tons/day (+0.41%) [49] - The utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.65%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [48] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 640,000 tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 498,000 tons [49] - The available days of coal in inland provinces decreased by 2.90 days week-on-week, indicating tighter supply [49] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]