9月首个交易日迎来贵金属的集体强势行情。国际黄金现货今日最多时涨逾1%，接近3500美元的高点。 而白银现货终于突破了40美元大关，创造2011年以来新高，日内涨幅超过2%。截至北京时间17：00， 白银现货价格在40.754美元。 白银兼具贵金属和工业金属属性，业内认为，美联储降息预期和光伏需求爆发共同驱动白银价格走高。 在突破40美元关键阻力位后，白银价格波动加剧，上方目标直指2011年的高点49.8美元。当前，白银价 格仍处于补涨阶段。 图：伦敦银现价格走势 （资料来源：Wind数据，智通财经整理） 贵金属的集体强势一方面仍与美联储9月的降息预期逐渐明朗有关，在北京时间8月22日晚美联储主席鲍 威尔于杰克逊霍尔年会上的发言"转鸽"后，国际金价与银价就开启了新一轮上涨。 8月29日晚公布的7月美国核心PCE物价指数录得2.9%，未超出市场预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联 储政策工具，9月17日联邦基金利率调降25bp的概率已升至87.2%。 此外，特朗普罢免库克一案持续发酵，美联储独立性受到挑战。美国总统特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵 押贷款欺诈为由宣布解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克，库克28日对特朗普提起诉讼， ...

Performance Review - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations with revenue of 10.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 746 million yuan, down 58.8% year-on-year, but turned profitable quarter-on-quarter, corresponding to an earnings per share of 0.08 yuan, aligning with expectations [1] Development Trends - In 1H25, the sales volume of photovoltaic glass increased by 17.5% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory reduction strategies, although revenue slightly declined due to a significant drop in glass prices, with photovoltaic glass revenue at 9.474 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [2] - As of 1H25, the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity remained at 23,200 tons/day, unchanged from the end of 2024, with a conservative capacity strategy due to domestic demand uncertainties [2] - The gross margin for photovoltaic glass in 1H25 was 11.4%, a decrease of 10.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower selling prices and increased depreciation costs, but there was significant recovery quarter-on-quarter driven by higher overseas revenue, which grew 22.4% year-on-year to 2.99 billion yuan, accounting for 31.6% of total revenue [2] Power Station Business - The company is taking a cautious approach to its power station business, delaying domestic photovoltaic power station construction due to limited new grid-connected capacity and the impact of power restriction measures, resulting in a 0.7% year-on-year increase in power station revenue to 1.438 billion yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 2.1 percentage points to 63.5% [3] - The company has no new large projects connected to the grid in 1H25 and expects limited new grid-connected capacity in the second half of the year, which is seen as beneficial for optimizing capital allocation and enhancing flexibility in response to market changes [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to fluctuations in domestic demand in the second half of the year, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 40% and 19% to 1.498 billion yuan and 2.058 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The target price has been reduced by 10% to 3.6 HKD, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 20 and 15 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 16.5% from the current stock price [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market had a significant decline in multiple contracts. The PS2509 contract closed at 49,130 yuan/ton, with a decline of 7.81%. Its trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots. In July, polysilicon supply will increase to 107,600 tons, and downstream cell production scheduling is around 50GW. The supply - demand relationship maintains a loose balance without de - stocking drivers. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) confirms the weak demand expectation in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Affected by the policy, the previous trends of related varieties have started to diverge. Polysilicon is supported by the comprehensive cost and spot price, so although the price weakens during trading, the decline space is limited. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate in a wide range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon PS2509 contract closed at 49,130 yuan/ton, down 7.81%. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots [4]. - Future Outlook: In July, polysilicon supply will reach 107,600 tons, and downstream cell production scheduling is about 50GW. The supply - demand is in a loose balance. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) indicates weak demand in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Polysilicon is supported by cost and spot price, and will mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 4, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,200 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) as the main incremental markets for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installation volume from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installation volume in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The T sector is currently viewed as undervalued due to market mispricing, with a core driver of price increases from export recovery yet to begin. The sector is still in a trading sentiment phase, with fundamental recovery lagging behind, presenting a left-side layout opportunity [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Export Recovery Logic**: The export recovery logic began in September 2024 when certain products were subjected to export controls, leading to a widening price gap between domestic and international markets, now approximately 200,000 CNY per ton. Monthly export volumes dropped from a normal range of 2,000 to 3,000 tons to 900 tons from November 2024 to April 2025. The government has recently redefined normal approval processes, indicating that export recovery is imminent, similar to successful precedents in rare earths and tungsten [3]. - **Impact of Photovoltaic Demand**: The pressure on photovoltaic demand is managed through price limits to protect profits rather than significantly reducing demand. The absolute value of export demand is expected to be much higher than the marginal decrease in photovoltaic demand, with industry consensus indicating that photovoltaic demand is not pessimistic [4][5]. - **Government Action Against Smuggling**: The establishment of a system to combat strategic mineral smuggling is beneficial for the T sector, as it indicates that illegal activities have been addressed, and legal exports are expected to accelerate. This marks a turning point in the export recovery process, considering reasonable civilian demand from various countries [6]. - **Company Highlights in the T Sector**: The combined market capitalization of the four companies in the T sector is approximately 70 billion CNY, providing better trading liquidity compared to last year's antimony trading. Huaxi Nonferrous, as the only listed nonferrous metal company in Guangxi, shows promising growth potential and strong expectations for capital injection. Additionally, there may be a short squeeze in tin prices [7]. - **Global Economic Environment and Inflation**: The current global economic environment shares similarities with the 1970s, with the new Federal Reserve Chairman facing political pressures that may affect independence. Global supply chains are under pressure, suggesting a potential for a return to a high-inflation era similar to the 1970s. Gold prices are expected to rise following a period of pressure testing [8][9]. - **Investment Logic for Yuguang Gold Lead Company**: Yuguang Gold Lead, as Asia's largest lead smelting plant, produces 6,100 tons of antimony oxide and 1,700 tons of bismuth annually. The company has seen its small metal recovery business revenue double in recent years, with a fourfold increase in gross profit while maintaining costs around 500 million CNY. The current valuation is estimated at less than 8 times earnings, indicating that the market has not fully recognized its value, making it an attractive investment opportunity [10].

Summary of Antimony and Tin Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony price has historically fluctuated due to supply and demand factors, with significant price increases observed from 2008 to 2010 due to environmental policies and mine restructuring, and again from 2020 onwards driven by photovoltaic demand and global supply tightness [1][3] - Antimony prices surged by 89% from early 2024 to September, primarily due to the suspension of operations at Hunan Gold's Xinglong Mining, export disruptions from Russia, and a 25% increase in China's photovoltaic installations [1][4] - Tin resources are scarce, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of only 20 years, lower than copper and aluminum [1][7] - Global tin production has decreased significantly since 2011, with China being the main contributor to this decline [1][7] Key Points on Antimony - Antimony is primarily used in flame retardants (40%-50%) and photovoltaic glass (25%-30%) [1][7] - High-end industries such as 5G communication and electric vehicles are expected to drive demand for flame retardants [1][7] - The price of antimony is expected to rise in the short term due to the recovery of exports, with a near-zero export volume in May and June due to anti-smuggling efforts [2][5] - Antimony prices are projected to stabilize before the Spring Festival in 2025, with a significant increase from 140,000 to 240,000 yuan, a rise of 68% driven by photovoltaic demand and reduced imports [5] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Antimony prices reached a peak of 190,000 yuan due to high demand and supply constraints, but have since corrected due to reduced exports and domestic production cuts in photovoltaic glass [4][5] - The cost of antimony in photovoltaic components is relatively low, accounting for only 0.5% to 1% of the total cost, which limits the overall impact of price fluctuations on photovoltaic modules [9] Future Outlook for Antimony - Huaxi Company is expected to see a 160% increase in production over the next two years, benefiting from the injection of 5G technology and expansion of high-grade mines [11][12] - Hunan Gold's performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations due to export controls, but a recovery in exports is anticipated to boost performance in the second half [13] Key Points on Tin - The tin industry faces significant supply challenges, with major producing countries being China (48%), Russia (16%), and Tajikistan (20%) [7] - The marginal grade of China's main tin mines has decreased from 1.0%-1.5% to 0.5%, indicating a decline in production capacity [7] - The demand for tin is primarily driven by flame retardants and photovoltaic glass, with high-end industries contributing to growth [7][8] Additional Insights - Antimony's applications in the semiconductor and military sectors present growth opportunities, particularly in fourth-generation semiconductors and military equipment [10] - The market for brominated flame retardants has shown resilience, with ongoing demand despite previous price pressures [8]