1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating." The report suggests that the industry may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material prices have strong support, the mid - stream inventory has increased slightly, the downstream demand remains stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. With the improvement of short - term commodity market sentiment, the natural rubber market may show a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan first fell and then rose, while in Hainan, they were adjusted downward due to weather disturbances. In Thailand, the glue price in the south increased, and the cup - rubber price in the northeast decreased. In Vietnam, raw material prices were relatively firm due to typhoon - induced rain [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises was stable, and it is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week, with potential drag from individual enterprises' maintenance plans [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, with an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory and a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory. The warehouse - receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber also increased [3][108]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is bullish. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread both widened [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber, domestic concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber was in a loss state, but the loss of Yunnan whole - milk rubber delivery profit improved [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The short - term Sino - US tariff policy has been postponed, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term market may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage, while paying attention to production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely this week. They first fell and then rose. As of November 7, the RU main contract closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,035 yuan/ton, down 1.67% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices showed an oscillating performance [9]. - **Position**: The RU position was low, and the NR position decreased. The RU - NR spread rebounded [16][23][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting rubber production [40]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices were firm. The prices of glue and cup - rubber in Thailand and glue in China showed different trends [50]. - **Production in Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). China's natural rubber imports from January to September were 4.7172 million tons (+19.65%) [73][92]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social "inventory" increased slightly. As of November 2, 2025, the social inventory of natural "rubber" was 1.056 million tons, and the inventory in Qingdao also increased [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: Tire capacity utilization remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization of full - steel "tire" sample enterprises was 65 "37%", and that of semi - "steel" tire sample enterprises was 72.89%. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week [118]. " - **Down "stream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventory in Shandong decreased slightly [119]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in October, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [137]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, tire exports were 7.28 million tons (+5.0%) [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk " "rubber" was in a loss state [148]. - **Futures - Spot Spread "**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the natural rubber industry is bearish. The industry may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term due to factors such as improving weather in production areas leading to increased supply, slightly decreasing mid - stream inventory, and narrow - fluctuating downstream operating rates, along with changeable sentiment in the commodity market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market currently lacks a clear driving force and is in a weak and volatile state. The supply in production areas is gradually increasing as the weather improves, the mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream tire production capacity utilization rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The overall commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious trading logic in the short - term [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply situation varies in different regions. In China, Yunnan's supply decreased slightly due to rainfall, while Hainan's supply increased but was still below the seasonal average. In Thailand, the supply increased significantly, putting pressure on raw material prices. In Vietnam, the supply increased steadily seasonally, and the glue price was firm. Overall, the supply factor is bearish [3]. - **Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next period. The demand factor is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.4% to 128.9 million tons. The inventory factor is neutral [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both widened this week. The basis factor is neutral [3]. - **Profit**: The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 decreased, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestic state - owned concentrated latex increased, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex improved. The profit factor is neutral [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still relatively high. The valuation factor is bearish [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: There are disturbances from the state reserve dumping policy and domestic macro - policy sentiment. The macro and policy factor is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to the improving weather in production areas, the upstream supply is gradually increasing. The mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious logic. It may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, the long - RU2601 short - RU2509 arbitrage should gradually take profit around 1000 [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: This week, natural rubber futures fluctuated weakly. As of August 8, the RU main contract closed at 14,575 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton (+2.85%) for the week, and the 20 - day rubber main contract closed at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton (+2.00%) for the week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded. The RU2509 contract accelerated the position transfer, and the total position of RU + NR continued to decline. The RU - NR spread rebounded, and there may be reverse arbitrage opportunities [9][17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The precipitation in production areas has decreased, which is conducive to the increase in rubber supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to June, China imported 3.1257 million tons of natural rubber (+26.47%). In July 2025, China imported a total of 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8% [86][93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Qingdao also decreased [102][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [110][111]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: The inventory of semi - steel tires in Shandong is at a high level [120]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In June, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. In July 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% [128][138]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to June, China exported 4.71 million tons of tires (+4.5%). In June, the export volume and amount of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and Thai latex rebounded [148].