1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating." The report suggests that the industry may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material prices have strong support, the mid - stream inventory has increased slightly, the downstream demand remains stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. With the improvement of short - term commodity market sentiment, the natural rubber market may show a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan first fell and then rose, while in Hainan, they were adjusted downward due to weather disturbances. In Thailand, the glue price in the south increased, and the cup - rubber price in the northeast decreased. In Vietnam, raw material prices were relatively firm due to typhoon - induced rain [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises was stable, and it is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week, with potential drag from individual enterprises' maintenance plans [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, with an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory and a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory. The warehouse - receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber also increased [3][108]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is bullish. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread both widened [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber, domestic concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber was in a loss state, but the loss of Yunnan whole - milk rubber delivery profit improved [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The short - term Sino - US tariff policy has been postponed, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term market may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage, while paying attention to production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely this week. They first fell and then rose. As of November 7, the RU main contract closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,035 yuan/ton, down 1.67% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices showed an oscillating performance [9]. - **Position**: The RU position was low, and the NR position decreased. The RU - NR spread rebounded [16][23][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting rubber production [40]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices were firm. The prices of glue and cup - rubber in Thailand and glue in China showed different trends [50]. - **Production in Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). China's natural rubber imports from January to September were 4.7172 million tons (+19.65%) [73][92]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social "inventory" increased slightly. As of November 2, 2025, the social inventory of natural "rubber" was 1.056 million tons, and the inventory in Qingdao also increased [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: Tire capacity utilization remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization of full - steel "tire" sample enterprises was 65 "37%", and that of semi - "steel" tire sample enterprises was 72.89%. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week [118]. " - **Down "stream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventory in Shandong decreased slightly [119]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in October, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [137]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, tire exports were 7.28 million tons (+5.0%) [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk " "rubber" was in a loss state [148]. - **Futures - Spot Spread "**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [169].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场暂无驱动，橡胶偏弱震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-11 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场暂无驱动，橡胶偏弱震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区降雨持续，割胶受阻明显，胶水产出环比小幅减少，原料价格维持坚挺。本周海南产区天气情况良好，割胶工作陆续开展， 全岛日收胶量大致在5000吨左右水平，但仍低于季节性预期。（2）泰国产区：本周泰国产区天气改善，供应增量明显施压原料价格，工厂加价收购原料， | | 供给 | 偏空 | | | | | 本周内杯胶走势表现坚挺。（3）越南产区：本周越南产区天气情况良好，原料供应呈现季节性稳步增长，受成品价格回升提振，同时周内浅色胶订单有所 | | | | 好转，亦支撑胶水价格表现坚挺。 | | ...