投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 年底资金风险偏好下降，橡胶维持窄幅震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:年底资金风险偏好下降，橡胶维持窄幅震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，产区陆续进入全面停割期。海南产区有雨水天气扰动，整体原料产出减量趋势明确，加工厂采购原料积 | | 供给 | 中性 | 极性一般，保持按需收购为主， 原料收购价格有所下调。（2）泰国产区：周内泰柬地缘紧张局势升级，影响局部割胶及工厂生产，南部雨水环比小幅增 | | | | 加，整体原料价格呈现先跌后涨走势。 （3）越南产区：越南产区天气逐步回归常态，周内无极端天气扰动割胶作业，进口胶仍无利润空间，为保订单交付， | | | | 本土工厂积极采 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "buying on dips for single - side trading" and "waiting and seeing for arbitrage" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Thailand floods and the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season have increased the bullish sentiment for rubber. Currently, raw material prices are strongly supported, mid - stream inventories have slightly increased, downstream demand has remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. In the short term, the sentiment in the commodity market is weak, and it may maintain a range - bound performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In the domestic产区, Yunnan's raw material acquisition volume has weakened, and Hainan's raw material output has decreased. In the Thai产区, the northeast is in the peak production period with falling cup - rubber prices, while the south is affected by floods, with firm glue prices. The situation in the Vietnamese产区 is similar to that in the Thai northeast [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year; that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [3] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber on the SHFE also increased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread have widened. The former is due to capital speculation on Shanghai rubber, and the latter is affected by the news of expanding the delivery products of NR and other factors [3] - **Profit**: It is a mixed situation. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex has deepened losses, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk rubber has changed little [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is in the upper - middle position, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. Near the end of the year and during the contract roll - over period, the risk preference of funds has decreased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, so the commodity market mostly maintains a volatile trend [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Rubber showed a strong and volatile trend this week. The domestic产区 is entering the production - reduction and rubber - cutting season, and there is a risk of floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam, increasing the expectation of supply tightening. Supported by high raw material prices, the 1 - 5 month spread of Shanghai rubber has strengthened, showing a contango structure. As of November 28, the RU main contract closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton (+1.12%) week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.08%) week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [9] - **Disk Position**: The position transfer of the RU main contract has accelerated, with a decrease in RU positions and an increase in NR positions [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread has widened significantly [31] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: There has been excessive precipitation in southern Thailand [40] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have been firm [49] - **Production in Main - Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). From January to October, China imported 5.2281 million tons of natural rubber (+17.27%) [72][91] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has slightly increased. As of November 23, 2025, it was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month [98] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires has rebounded, while that of semi - steel tires has declined. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [107][115] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In October, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, and heavy - truck sales were about 93,000 [122][132] - **Tire Exports**: From January to October, tire exports were 8.03 million tons (+3.8%), with the cumulative growth rate narrowing. In October, the export volume and value of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [133] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk rubber has been in a loss [141] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber has rebounded [152]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol Industry - The inland market will see a continuous increase in production. The marginal devices in the inland area are in a loss - making state. The market sentiment has improved due to some Iranian devices starting to shut down due to gas restrictions. The price and basis have both strengthened. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rebounded due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the unsuccessful Russia - Ukraine negotiations. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil remains weak. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [5]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, there is a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The supply has recovered due to fewer maintenance, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For PE, there is a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Although the unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, the imported goods are abundant, and the demand is generally weak. The 01 contract is still under great pressure [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern. The weekly production has declined due to some devices reducing their loads, and the soda ash factories have reduced their inventory stage by stage. In the medium term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand situation will be further pressured without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. Glass has a short - term positive performance driven by cold - repair benefits, but in the long term, it is still under pressure due to the weakening demand and the surplus pattern [9]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the supply is generally loose, and the demand support is limited. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - demand expectation is generally loose. The price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. For styrene, the supply of goods is limited, and the demand support is expected to be limited. The rebound space is restricted [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply cost is strongly supported, but the inventory is increasing seasonally, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The downstream enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline further. The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda has certain supply - demand pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. PVC has a surplus supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [12]. Polyester Industry - PX has limited short - term drive but strong medium - term support. PTA's supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. Bottle - chip's supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [13]. LPG Industry - The LPG price has declined, the inventory has increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed. The overall market situation needs further attention [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, with increases of 3.64% and 2.81% respectively. The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 475.00% [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased, with decreases of 2.86%, 4.16%, and 3.91% respectively [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased by 0.38%, while that of overseas upstream enterprises increased by 0.30%. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices remained unchanged [1]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, with increases of 1.29% and 1.34% respectively. The refined oil cracking spreads of different regions showed different changes [5]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and other contracts increased to varying degrees. The L15 and PP15 spreads increased by 14.75% and 12.82% respectively [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.51%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.60% [8]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with decreases of 4.89% and 4.23% respectively [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price and Spread**: Glass 2601 price increased by 2.63%, and soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices increased by 1.11% and 1.20% respectively [9]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 4.85%, and the weekly production decreased by 4.86%. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.98% [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.15%, and the soda ash factory's inventory decreased by 0.93% [9]. Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased. The price of styrene's EB2601 decreased by 1.1% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased by 11.6% and 10.7% respectively [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.7%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4% [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased by 1.36%, and the full - latex basis increased by 24.49% [11]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the operating rates of automobile tire factories decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased by 3.60% and 1.01% respectively [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.6%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.5% [12]. - **Operating Rate**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.0% [12]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 2.1% [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some polyester products such as POY150/48 decreased, and the price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2% [13]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.5%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.8% [13]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased by 14.4% [13]. LPG Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512 and PG2601 decreased. The PG12 - 01 spread increased by 21.67% [15]. - **Inventory**: The LPG port inventory increased by 6.28%, and the port storage - capacity ratio increased by 6.29% [15]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 3.35%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 2.93% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - events have introduced new disturbances, and rubber has continued its weak performance. Although there is cost support due to rainfall in production areas and a decline in mid - stream inventory, and the downstream operating rate may rebound after the holiday, external macro - disturbances are negative, so it may maintain a weak performance in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as "neutral". In domestic production areas, raw material release in Yunnan was slow due to rain during the festival, and prices were weak. In Hainan, raw material supply was tight due to rain. In Thailand, heavy rainfall may affect raw material supply, and in Vietnam, although the weather improved, production had not fully recovered, and inventory was low [3] - **Demand**: It is rated as "neutral". As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points). It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will rebound next week [3] - **Inventory**: It is rated as "relatively high". As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.1 tons, and that of light - colored rubber was 42.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is rated as "neutral". After the festival, the RU - mixed spread rebounded and expanded, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts also increased slightly [3] - **Profit**: It is rated as "relatively high". The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex was in a loss state but stable, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex was still in a loss state but recovered significantly [3] - **Valuation**: It is rated as "bearish". The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is rated as "neutral". The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the previous optimistic sentiment has subsided. The domestic commodity market currently lacks drivers, and market sentiment is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed contract [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: After the festival, natural rubber stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 10, the RU main contract closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 285 yuan/ton (+1.90%), and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,350 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 250 yuan/ton (+2.07%) [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded [9] - **Disk Position**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [33] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [41] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of cup rubber rebounded [50] - **Main - Producing Country Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63] - **Main - Producing Country Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73] - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+19.47%). In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [86][93] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory decreased significantly. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%) [103][110] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the festival, the tire capacity utilization rate may rebound. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points) [111][119] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In August, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [125][136] - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, China exported 6.19 million tons of rubber tires (+5.1%). In August, the export volume was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [137] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and the delivery profit of full - latex were in a loss state [147]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: RU, NR Neutral with a Bullish Bias [4] - Medium - to - long - term: RU, NR Bearish [4] - Domestic Demand: Neutral [4] - Foreign Supply: Neutral with a Bearish Bias [4] - Social Inventory: Neutral with a Bearish Bias [4] Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Temporary disruptions in rubber tapping do not change the production increase expectation. Supply will return to normal when the weather improves, while demand lacks a core driver, showing a short - term bullish and long - term bearish trend. RU supply is tighter, and light - colored rubber inventory reduction is better than dark - colored rubber, so RU is stronger than NR [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Tire demand is under pressure. All - steel tires may face a phased drag in the fourth quarter, and semi - steel tires are likely to be weak due to anti - dumping and demand overdraft [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs China's Situation - **Production**: In 2025, from January to July, China's natural rubber production totaled 39.51 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.42%. ANRPC expects China's annual production in 2025 to increase by 6% year - on - year, reaching 932,800 tons. The third - quarter typhoon affected Hainan more significantly than Yunnan. With better phenological conditions and new latex production capacity, the output of whole latex and concentrated latex is expected to increase year - on - year [17][24]. - **Import**: From January to July 2025, China's natural rubber imports (HS: 4001) totaled 1.667 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 35.54%. Tax - free imports from some least - developed countries have led to high inventory and slow de - stocking in Yunnan [29][33]. - **Inventory**: De - stocking is slow. If there is no significant de - stocking by the end of September, there may be a risk of re - stocking [35][44]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Gloves and Foam Products**: In the third quarter of 2025, glove factory orders improved in September but were still far from last year's level. Foam factories' production and orders seasonally recovered in the "Golden September" [48][49]. - **Tires** - **Semi - steel Tires**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 456 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.36%. Exports were 1.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. Exports to the EU were 533,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. However, over - capacity, inventory accumulation, and anti - dumping measures may lead to weak demand in the fourth quarter [56]. - **All - steel Tires**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative production was 97.81 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. From January to July, exports were 2.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.52%. The fourth - quarter demand may be affected by reduced construction starts in the north and the quarterly payment period in the south [64][65]. - **Automobiles**: From January to August 2025, passenger car production and sales increased by 13.6% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. Policies such as trade - in and exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles before December 31, 2025, support the tire supporting market, but the replacement market may be under pressure [60]. Thailand's Situation - **Production**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 2.3062 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.83%. The opening of the tapping season was postponed to June. In the fourth quarter, normal phenological conditions are expected to yield 1.6058 million tons. In case of extreme climate, the output will be between 1.5242 - 1.5854 million tons. ANRPC expects Thailand's annual production in 2025 to increase by 1.2% year - on - year, reaching 4.8466 million tons [77][83]. - **Export and Policy**: There was a phenomenon of rush - exporting tires in Southeast Asia during the 90 - day buffer period given by the US. Thailand plans to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, starting with 400 tons of cup lump rubber in September and increasing to 2400 tons in October [86][90]. Indonesia's Situation - **Production**: In 2025, most areas had normal phenological conditions, but South Sumatra had much higher precipitation in the third quarter. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 1.3736 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56%. Limited by old tree age, production has been declining in recent years. ANRPC expects Indonesia's annual production in 2025 to decrease by 9.8% year - on - year, reaching 2.0404 million tons [99][102]. Vietnam's Situation - **Production**: From January to July 2025, the production was 511,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.89%. The output has not met expectations since the start of tapping this year, and a decline is expected in the fourth quarter. ANRPC expects Vietnam's annual production in 2025 to decrease by 1.3% year - on - year, reaching 1.2797 million tons [117]. Cote d'Ivoire's Situation - **Production**: The single - yield level has room for improvement. The output in 2024 was about 1.662 million tons. Future production is expected to increase by 5% - 10% annually, with an estimated output of 1.775 - 1.8 million tons in 2025, or 1.78 - 2.03 million tons based on the growth rate [124]. - **Policy and Export**: Zero - tariff policies for African countries are expected to be implemented. After the policy is implemented, exports to China may increase from the current 315,300 tons per year to 324,900 - 448,200 tons per year [127].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the natural rubber industry is bearish. The industry may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term due to factors such as improving weather in production areas leading to increased supply, slightly decreasing mid - stream inventory, and narrow - fluctuating downstream operating rates, along with changeable sentiment in the commodity market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market currently lacks a clear driving force and is in a weak and volatile state. The supply in production areas is gradually increasing as the weather improves, the mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream tire production capacity utilization rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The overall commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious trading logic in the short - term [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply situation varies in different regions. In China, Yunnan's supply decreased slightly due to rainfall, while Hainan's supply increased but was still below the seasonal average. In Thailand, the supply increased significantly, putting pressure on raw material prices. In Vietnam, the supply increased steadily seasonally, and the glue price was firm. Overall, the supply factor is bearish [3]. - **Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next period. The demand factor is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.4% to 128.9 million tons. The inventory factor is neutral [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both widened this week. The basis factor is neutral [3]. - **Profit**: The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 decreased, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestic state - owned concentrated latex increased, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex improved. The profit factor is neutral [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still relatively high. The valuation factor is bearish [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: There are disturbances from the state reserve dumping policy and domestic macro - policy sentiment. The macro and policy factor is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Due to the improving weather in production areas, the upstream supply is gradually increasing. The mid - stream inventory has a slight decline, and the downstream operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. The commodity market sentiment is changeable, and there is no obvious logic. It may maintain a volatile performance in the short - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, the long - RU2601 short - RU2509 arbitrage should gradually take profit around 1000 [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: This week, natural rubber futures fluctuated weakly. As of August 8, the RU main contract closed at 14,575 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton (+2.85%) for the week, and the 20 - day rubber main contract closed at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton (+2.00%) for the week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded. The RU2509 contract accelerated the position transfer, and the total position of RU + NR continued to decline. The RU - NR spread rebounded, and there may be reverse arbitrage opportunities [9][17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The precipitation in production areas has decreased, which is conducive to the increase in rubber supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to June, China imported 3.1257 million tons of natural rubber (+26.47%). In July 2025, China imported a total of 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8% [86][93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Qingdao also decreased [102][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [110][111]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: The inventory of semi - steel tires in Shandong is at a high level [120]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In June, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. In July 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% [128][138]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to June, China exported 4.71 million tons of tires (+4.5%). In June, the export volume and amount of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and Thai latex rebounded [148].