1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - events have introduced new disturbances, and rubber has continued its weak performance. Although there is cost support due to rainfall in production areas and a decline in mid - stream inventory, and the downstream operating rate may rebound after the holiday, external macro - disturbances are negative, so it may maintain a weak performance in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as "neutral". In domestic production areas, raw material release in Yunnan was slow due to rain during the festival, and prices were weak. In Hainan, raw material supply was tight due to rain. In Thailand, heavy rainfall may affect raw material supply, and in Vietnam, although the weather improved, production had not fully recovered, and inventory was low [3] - **Demand**: It is rated as "neutral". As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points). It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will rebound next week [3] - **Inventory**: It is rated as "relatively high". As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.1 tons, and that of light - colored rubber was 42.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is rated as "neutral". After the festival, the RU - mixed spread rebounded and expanded, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts also increased slightly [3] - **Profit**: It is rated as "relatively high". The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex was in a loss state but stable, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex was still in a loss state but recovered significantly [3] - **Valuation**: It is rated as "bearish". The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is rated as "neutral". The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the previous optimistic sentiment has subsided. The domestic commodity market currently lacks drivers, and market sentiment is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed contract [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: After the festival, natural rubber stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 10, the RU main contract closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 285 yuan/ton (+1.90%), and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,350 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 250 yuan/ton (+2.07%) [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded [9] - **Disk Position**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [33] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [41] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of cup rubber rebounded [50] - **Main - Producing Country Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63] - **Main - Producing Country Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73] - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+19.47%). In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [86][93] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory decreased significantly. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%) [103][110] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the festival, the tire capacity utilization rate may rebound. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points) [111][119] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In August, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [125][136] - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, China exported 6.19 million tons of rubber tires (+5.1%). In August, the export volume was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [137] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and the delivery profit of full - latex were in a loss state [147]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: RU, NR Neutral with a Bullish Bias [4] - Medium - to - long - term: RU, NR Bearish [4] - Domestic Demand: Neutral [4] - Foreign Supply: Neutral with a Bearish Bias [4] - Social Inventory: Neutral with a Bearish Bias [4] Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Temporary disruptions in rubber tapping do not change the production increase expectation. Supply will return to normal when the weather improves, while demand lacks a core driver, showing a short - term bullish and long - term bearish trend. RU supply is tighter, and light - colored rubber inventory reduction is better than dark - colored rubber, so RU is stronger than NR [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Tire demand is under pressure. All - steel tires may face a phased drag in the fourth quarter, and semi - steel tires are likely to be weak due to anti - dumping and demand overdraft [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs China's Situation - **Production**: In 2025, from January to July, China's natural rubber production totaled 39.51 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.42%. ANRPC expects China's annual production in 2025 to increase by 6% year - on - year, reaching 932,800 tons. The third - quarter typhoon affected Hainan more significantly than Yunnan. With better phenological conditions and new latex production capacity, the output of whole latex and concentrated latex is expected to increase year - on - year [17][24]. - **Import**: From January to July 2025, China's natural rubber imports (HS: 4001) totaled 1.667 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 35.54%. Tax - free imports from some least - developed countries have led to high inventory and slow de - stocking in Yunnan [29][33]. - **Inventory**: De - stocking is slow. If there is no significant de - stocking by the end of September, there may be a risk of re - stocking [35][44]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Gloves and Foam Products**: In the third quarter of 2025, glove factory orders improved in September but were still far from last year's level. Foam factories' production and orders seasonally recovered in the "Golden September" [48][49]. - **Tires** - **Semi - steel Tires**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 456 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.36%. Exports were 1.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. Exports to the EU were 533,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. However, over - capacity, inventory accumulation, and anti - dumping measures may lead to weak demand in the fourth quarter [56]. - **All - steel Tires**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative production was 97.81 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. From January to July, exports were 2.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.52%. The fourth - quarter demand may be affected by reduced construction starts in the north and the quarterly payment period in the south [64][65]. - **Automobiles**: From January to August 2025, passenger car production and sales increased by 13.6% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. Policies such as trade - in and exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles before December 31, 2025, support the tire supporting market, but the replacement market may be under pressure [60]. Thailand's Situation - **Production**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 2.3062 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.83%. The opening of the tapping season was postponed to June. In the fourth quarter, normal phenological conditions are expected to yield 1.6058 million tons. In case of extreme climate, the output will be between 1.5242 - 1.5854 million tons. ANRPC expects Thailand's annual production in 2025 to increase by 1.2% year - on - year, reaching 4.8466 million tons [77][83]. - **Export and Policy**: There was a phenomenon of rush - exporting tires in Southeast Asia during the 90 - day buffer period given by the US. Thailand plans to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, starting with 400 tons of cup lump rubber in September and increasing to 2400 tons in October [86][90]. Indonesia's Situation - **Production**: In 2025, most areas had normal phenological conditions, but South Sumatra had much higher precipitation in the third quarter. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 1.3736 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56%. Limited by old tree age, production has been declining in recent years. ANRPC expects Indonesia's annual production in 2025 to decrease by 9.8% year - on - year, reaching 2.0404 million tons [99][102]. Vietnam's Situation - **Production**: From January to July 2025, the production was 511,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.89%. The output has not met expectations since the start of tapping this year, and a decline is expected in the fourth quarter. ANRPC expects Vietnam's annual production in 2025 to decrease by 1.3% year - on - year, reaching 1.2797 million tons [117]. Cote d'Ivoire's Situation - **Production**: The single - yield level has room for improvement. The output in 2024 was about 1.662 million tons. Future production is expected to increase by 5% - 10% annually, with an estimated output of 1.775 - 1.8 million tons in 2025, or 1.78 - 2.03 million tons based on the growth rate [124]. - **Policy and Export**: Zero - tariff policies for African countries are expected to be implemented. After the policy is implemented, exports to China may increase from the current 315,300 tons per year to 324,900 - 448,200 tons per year [127].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场暂无驱动，橡胶偏弱震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-11 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场暂无驱动，橡胶偏弱震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区降雨持续，割胶受阻明显，胶水产出环比小幅减少，原料价格维持坚挺。本周海南产区天气情况良好，割胶工作陆续开展， 全岛日收胶量大致在5000吨左右水平，但仍低于季节性预期。（2）泰国产区：本周泰国产区天气改善，供应增量明显施压原料价格，工厂加价收购原料， | | 供给 | 偏空 | | | | | 本周内杯胶走势表现坚挺。（3）越南产区：本周越南产区天气情况良好，原料供应呈现季节性稳步增长，受成品价格回升提振，同时周内浅色胶订单有所 | | | | 好转，亦支撑胶水价格表现坚挺。 | | ...