Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced pressure and fluctuations on February 4, with gold prices briefly surpassing the $5000 mark before retreating [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of the close on February 4, the most actively traded April 2026 gold futures rose by $15.9, settling at $4986.4 per ounce, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - During the trading session, gold prices peaked at $5113.9 per ounce but fell significantly during the afternoon, hitting a low of $4867.7 per ounce [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The slight rebound of the US dollar index exerted pressure on the precious metals market, with the index rising by 0.19% to close at 97.616 [1] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - The World Gold Council announced that central banks purchased 19 tons of gold through the International Monetary Fund and other public data channels in December 2025, with the total net purchases for 2025 reaching 328 tons, down from the record 345 tons in 2024 [1] Group 4: Silver Market Performance - The March silver futures price increased by 285 cents, closing at $87.765 per ounce, marking a 3.36% rise [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold is trading around 4208, showing a cautious market sentiment influenced by multiple factors, including the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Yesterday, gold opened at 4191, dipped to a low of 4170, and then surged to a high of 4221 before closing at 4208, forming a bullish candlestick pattern with a long lower shadow [3] - The technical outlook indicates a bullish trend with a stable upward movement supported by short-term moving averages, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed strong performance, opening at 58.03, briefly dropping to 57.58, and then rising to a high of 60.83 before closing at 60.64, indicating a robust bullish momentum [6] - The technical analysis reveals a clear upward trend with a stable bullish structure, suggesting that any short-term pullbacks present buying opportunities [6] - The recommended trading strategy for silver is to focus on buying on dips while monitoring resistance levels around 61.3-61.5 and support levels at 60.0-60.2 [6]

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, with rumors of Fed chair changes and large fluctuations in the US dollar index. The fundamentals have both long and short factors, and the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile. In the domestic market, the recent strong trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures is driven by macro - level good news, stable cotton demand, and limited annual supply - demand pressure. Although there is a large short - term supply pressure, it will gradually weaken, and the cotton price center may move up slightly in December. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options on the 05 contract with a lower degree of out - of - the - money [2]. - For sugar, after the release of Thailand's lower - than - expected sugarcane purchase price, the futures price has been deeply adjusted. The northern hemisphere's production is not expected to change significantly, and the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil provides support. The sugar price is expected to be in a volatile bottom - building phase. In the domestic market, with 39 sugar mills in Guangxi starting production, the supply has increased, and the spot price continues to be under pressure. The January contract is expected to be volatile, and the May contract will be under medium - term pressure [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.11% to 64.64 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.44% to 13,765 yuan per ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 1,675 lots to 546,900 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,570 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan per ton from the previous day [2]. - **Sugar**: Thailand announced the 2025/26 national unified sugarcane benchmark price. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi is 5,480 - 5,650 yuan per ton, with some prices down 30 - 100 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, it is 5,320 - 5,480 yuan per ton, down 10 - 20 yuan per ton; the mainstream price of processed sugar is 5,750 - 5,900 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 40 yuan with no change, the main contract basis is 1,171 yuan with no change. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,763 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,936 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 70 yuan, down 6 yuan; the main contract basis is 160 yuan, down 35 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,470 yuan per ton with no change, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,565 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On December 1, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,403, 5 less than the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 2,147. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,763 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,950 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,982 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,122 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.1, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.2, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.7, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.3, up 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On December 1, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,470 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,565 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and relevant price indices, with data sources from Wind and the research institute of Everbright Futures [7][15][17].

Core Insights - Recent spot gold prices have been rising, with market sentiment indicating a potential breakthrough of historical highs [1] - Factors such as global uncertainty, increased geopolitical risks, and adjustments in major central bank monetary policies have significantly enhanced the appeal of spot gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts note that fluctuations in the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations are providing strong support for spot gold prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, while also facing pressure from fluctuating dollar indices and changing market risk preferences [3][5]. Market Analysis - On July 18, spot gold closed at $3350.05, showing a slight decline of 0.25% after a strong rebound from a low of $3309.82, indicating intensified market competition between bulls and bears [1]. - The recent strong U.S. retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000) contributed to the initial drop in gold prices, but subsequent market reactions led to a recovery [1][3]. - The gold price is currently forming a tight technical triangle between $3320 and $3377, with critical support at $3320 and resistance at $3377, which could lead to further movements towards $3390 and potentially $3400 or $3428 if broken [3][5]. Technical Indicators - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential for price movement, with gold trading above the middle band, suggesting a rebound from oversold conditions [5]. - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI indicates strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of upward movement [5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $3340 with a protective stop at $3330, targeting $3365, while medium-term strategies remain bullish as long as prices hold above $3300 [7].

Group 1 - Spot gold has risen by $11, currently priced at $3,378.46 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 17 points, currently at 99.12 [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has increased by $8, currently priced at $3,330 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 25 points, now at 99.18 [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has dropped by 50 points, falling below 143, with a daily decline of 0.71% [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has increased by $7, currently priced at $3,391 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 10 points, currently at 99.49 [1]