回顾昨日黄金盘面表现，早盘于4191点位开盘后，行情先抑后扬，下方触及4170日线低点后快速止跌， 随后强势拉升，日线最高触及4221点位，尾盘小幅整理，最终收线于4208点位，日线录得一根下影线长 于上影线的倒纺锤形态阳线，多头动能初步释放，短期趋势偏暖。技术面来看，小时线级别，黄金回调 后企稳回升，均线系统呈多头排列，价格依托短期均线上行，回调力度温和且支撑有效，多头结构相对 稳固，短期上行节奏未改。今日黄金短线操作上，王召金建议以回调做多为核心思路，反弹高空为辅助 策略。上方短期重点关注4230-4250一线阻力区间，下方聚焦4190-4170一线支撑区域。 白银行情分析： 文/王召金 黄金行情分析： 早盘现货黄金维持窄幅震荡上涨走势，当前交投于4208附近，市场情绪受多重因素交织影响，整体偏向 谨慎。眼下正值美联储政策会议前夕，市场进入短暂调整阶段，投资者持币观望心态浓厚，屏息等待美 联储主席鲍威尔最新表态，以精准捕捉政策导向；同时，地缘政治紧张局势持续发酵、美元指数波动传 导，叠加日本地震等突发事件扰动，多空因素相互博弈，进一步影响黄金短期走势，而美联储为期两天 的政策会议即将启幕，成为当前金市波动 ...

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 三、市场信息 1、12 月 1 日棉花期货仓单数量 2403 张，较上一交易日减少 5 张，有效预报 2147 张。 软商品日报 二、日度数据监测 | 品种 | 合约价差 | | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | | 1-5 | 40 | 0 | 1171 | 0 | 新疆 | 14763 | 40 | | | | | | | | | 全国 | 14936 | 40 | | 白糖 | | 1-5 | 70 | -6 | 160 | -35 | 南宁 | 5470 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5565 | -30 | 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 0.11%，报收 64.64 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.44%，报收 13765 | | | | ...

Core Insights - Recent spot gold prices have been rising, with market sentiment indicating a potential breakthrough of historical highs [1] - Factors such as global uncertainty, increased geopolitical risks, and adjustments in major central bank monetary policies have significantly enhanced the appeal of spot gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts note that fluctuations in the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations are providing strong support for spot gold prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, while also facing pressure from fluctuating dollar indices and changing market risk preferences [3][5]. Market Analysis - On July 18, spot gold closed at $3350.05, showing a slight decline of 0.25% after a strong rebound from a low of $3309.82, indicating intensified market competition between bulls and bears [1]. - The recent strong U.S. retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000) contributed to the initial drop in gold prices, but subsequent market reactions led to a recovery [1][3]. - The gold price is currently forming a tight technical triangle between $3320 and $3377, with critical support at $3320 and resistance at $3377, which could lead to further movements towards $3390 and potentially $3400 or $3428 if broken [3][5]. Technical Indicators - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential for price movement, with gold trading above the middle band, suggesting a rebound from oversold conditions [5]. - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI indicates strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of upward movement [5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $3340 with a protective stop at $3330, targeting $3365, while medium-term strategies remain bullish as long as prices hold above $3300 [7].

Group 1 - Spot gold has risen by $11, currently priced at $3,378.46 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 17 points, currently at 99.12 [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has increased by $8, currently priced at $3,330 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 25 points, now at 99.18 [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has dropped by 50 points, falling below 143, with a daily decline of 0.71% [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has increased by $7, currently priced at $3,391 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 10 points, currently at 99.49 [1]