本文源自：金融界AI电报 澳洲联储：预计2026年第四季度失业率为4.3%，2027年第四季度为4.5%，2028年第二季度为4.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The University of Hong Kong predicts a slowdown in the city's economic growth to 3.1% in the first quarter of this year, with an estimated annual growth rate of 2.5% to 3% [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The economic growth for the last quarter of the previous year was estimated at 3.5%, with an overall growth of 3.4% for the entire year, which is higher than the projected growth for 2024 [1] Interest Rate Impact - Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts last year, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 0.75%, Hong Kong is not expected to benefit immediately due to the lagging effect of local interest rate adjustments and a slow pace of further rate cuts this year [1] Consumer Behavior and Employment - Changes in consumer spending patterns and cross-border consumption have led to irreversible structural changes, although the job market is gradually adapting, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate expected to reach 3.7% this quarter [1] Private Consumption and Trade - Private consumption expenditure is projected to improve from a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in the last quarter to 3.9% this quarter, while goods exports are expected to slow from a forecasted increase of 14.3% to 8.2%, and imports from 14.6% to 8.8% [1] - Investment is forecasted to decline by 3.5% year-on-year, a shift from a previous estimate of a 1.9% increase [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is trading around 0.6526 against the US dollar (USD), showing a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous close of 0.6524 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the official cash rate from 3.85% to 3.60% [1] - Citigroup economist Faraz Syed suggests that the overall tone of the upcoming policy statement may lean towards a neutral to accommodative stance, with potential adjustments in economic forecasts indicating a slight rise in unemployment and a decrease in inflation by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD pair may find support around 0.6465, with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) below it [2] - A break below the 0.6420-0.6415 range, which was a one-month low reached last Friday, could trigger new selling signals for bears [2] - If the price clearly breaks below the 0.6375-0.6370 area, it would pave the way for a significant correction from the year's high [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) projects the unemployment rate to be 4.2% by June 2025, and 4.3% for both June 2026 and June 2027 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Forecast - The RBA anticipates an unemployment rate of 4.2% by mid-2025 [1] - The expected unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.3% in mid-2026 and mid-2027 [1]