Core Viewpoint - The University of Hong Kong predicts a slowdown in the city's economic growth to 3.1% in the first quarter of this year, with an estimated annual growth rate of 2.5% to 3% [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The economic growth for the last quarter of the previous year was estimated at 3.5%, with an overall growth of 3.4% for the entire year, which is higher than the projected growth for 2024 [1] Interest Rate Impact - Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts last year, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 0.75%, Hong Kong is not expected to benefit immediately due to the lagging effect of local interest rate adjustments and a slow pace of further rate cuts this year [1] Consumer Behavior and Employment - Changes in consumer spending patterns and cross-border consumption have led to irreversible structural changes, although the job market is gradually adapting, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate expected to reach 3.7% this quarter [1] Private Consumption and Trade - Private consumption expenditure is projected to improve from a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in the last quarter to 3.9% this quarter, while goods exports are expected to slow from a forecasted increase of 14.3% to 8.2%, and imports from 14.6% to 8.8% [1] - Investment is forecasted to decline by 3.5% year-on-year, a shift from a previous estimate of a 1.9% increase [1]

花旗集团经济学家Faraz Syed分析指出，此次政策声明的整体基调可能呈现中性偏宽松的倾向。若与先 前声明相比，该行对经济预测的调整显示2026年失业率可能小幅攀升且通胀水平有所回落，则政策立场 或将更趋宽松。市场普遍关注此次利率决议的措辞变化，特别是对通胀预期和就业市场前景的评估。分 析人士认为，若联储下调通胀预期并上调失业率预测，可能暗示未来存在进一步放宽政策的可能性。当 前市场定价已基本消化本次降息预期，投资者更关注的是联储对后续政策路径的前瞻指引。 周一（8月11日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:42分，澳元/美元 报价0.6526，上涨0.02%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6524。澳洲联储预计将于周二宣布降息25个基 点，将官方隔夜拆款利率从3.85%下调至3.6%。 澳元兑美元0.6465附近可能为澳元兑美元提供支撑，其下方是100日简单移动平均线（SMA）。若跌破 0.6420-0.6415区域（即上周五触及的一个多月低点），将为空头提供新的触发信号。随之而来的下跌可 能拖累现货价格跌破0.6400整数关口，向6月月度震荡低点0.6375-0.637 ...

澳洲联储：预计失业率截至2025年6月为4.2%，2026年6月和2027年6月均为4.3%。 ...