Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. Economic Forecast - The Federal Reserve projects that by the end of 2025, economic growth will significantly slow down, inflation will rise, and the unemployment rate will slightly increase [5]. - The core inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%, and will decline to 2.4% by 2026 and further to 2.1% by 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2025, higher than the previous estimate of 4.4%, and is expected to remain at 4.5% until 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2027 [6]. - The GDP growth forecast has been downgraded, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.4% for this year, 1.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027 [6][7]. Interest Rate Predictions - The latest "dot plot" indicates that the number of officials who do not expect any rate cuts this year has increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more cautious stance [8]. - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 8 support two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe there should be no cuts, 2 support one cut, and 2 advocate for three cuts [8]. Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned against over-reliance on interest rate predictions, emphasizing that forecasts may change based on incoming data, particularly inflation data [10]. - Powell highlighted the high level of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and stated that the Federal Reserve is willing to "wait and see" for more information before making any policy adjustments [10].

澳洲联储：预计失业率截至2025年6月为4.2%，2026年6月和2027年6月均为4.3%。 ...