1、纳指大涨2.69%，特斯拉、谷歌涨超6%，中国指数涨2.82%； 2、特朗普：已接受邀请明年4月访华； 3、WTI 1月原油期货收涨1.34%，现货黄金涨1.8%； 4、美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至八成； 5、美联储沃勒：我主张在12月降息； 6、美联储戴利：就业市场可能突然恶化 支持在12月降息； 7、高盛首席经济学家：预计美联储将于12月降息； 8、德银：明年标普500指数目标位上看8000点； 9、美国银行：黄金价格2026年或将达到5000美元 10、美国9月PCE报告将改期至12月5日晚上10点发布； 11、特朗普下令启动"创世使命" 计划 大力推动AI科研革命； 12、亚马逊豪掷500亿美元，扩建美国政府AI算力； 13、德国总理：本周乌克兰谈判不会取得突破； 11、公告精选︱广电计量：拟投资建设广电计量西南(成都)检测基地；工业富联：未向市场下调第四季 度利润目标； 12、A股投资避雷针︱东方海洋：股东国元基金拟减持不超过3%股份；东江环保：子公司收到税务行 政处罚决定书。 格隆汇11月25日｜国际要闻： 大中华区要闻： 1、央行：11月25日开展10000亿元MLF操作； 2、标普 ...

Core Viewpoint - India's GDP is projected to surpass Japan's by 2026, reaching approximately $4.5056 trillion, and is expected to rise to the third position globally by 2029 [1][6]. Group 1: GDP Projections - Japan's nominal GDP is estimated to be $4.4636 trillion in 2026, dropping from the fourth to the fifth position globally due to the depreciation of the yen and the shrinking GDP in dollar terms [1][3]. - In 2024, Japan's GDP is projected at $4.0193 trillion, ranking fourth after the US, China, and Germany, having fallen from third place in 2023 [3]. - By 2025, Japan's GDP is expected to reach $4.2798 trillion, with the reversal of positions between India and Japan occurring later than previously anticipated [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Growth Factors - India's significant population growth and the surge in the middle class are driving economic expansion [4][6]. - India's domestic automobile sales surpassed Japan's in 2022, making it the third largest market globally after China and the US [6]. - Projected growth rates indicate that India will achieve high growth of 6.6% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026, while Japan's real wage growth is expected to support personal consumption at 1.1% in 2025, slowing to 0.6% in 2026 due to weak external demand [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2030, Japan's GDP is anticipated to rise to $5.1198 trillion but will be surpassed by the UK at $5.1997 trillion, resulting in Japan falling to sixth place globally [6].

Group 1 - The global economic landscape in 2025 will prominently feature the performances of the US, China, and Russia, with the US maintaining a GDP of approximately 216 trillion RMB, showcasing its strong economic power [3] - China's GDP is projected to reach around 141.75 trillion RMB, with a growth target of 5% for 2025, reflecting a robust economic stance [3][16] - Russia's GDP is expected to decline to 16 trillion RMB, with a growth forecast reduced from 2.5% to 1.5%, indicating significant economic challenges [5][13] Group 2 - The US economy, while appearing strong with a GDP of 216 trillion RMB, faces underlying issues such as persistent inflation and declining domestic purchasing power [7][9] - The US national debt has surpassed 37 trillion USD, leading to an average debt burden of 110,000 USD per citizen, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [9] - In contrast, China is effectively managing its local debt and is close to completing a 2 trillion RMB debt swap, indicating a healthier fiscal position compared to the US [20] Group 3 - China's economic resilience is attributed to technological advancements and industrial upgrades, with significant growth in exports, particularly in automobiles and ships [18] - The shift in China's export structure and its non-hegemonic approach to international relations contribute to its stable economic growth [18][22] - Russia's economy, while showing some resilience through increased oil exports and new trade partnerships, remains heavily impacted by sanctions and military expenditures [15][22] Group 4 - The contrasting economic trajectories of the three nations highlight the importance of long-term sustainability over short-term gains, with the US facing "low growth, high consumption" challenges, Russia struggling under sanctions, and China demonstrating steady progress [20][24] - The future global economic order will depend on each country's ability to address internal challenges and seize development opportunities [24]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that the July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index met market expectations, but the unexpected widening of the goods trade deficit led to a downward revision of the U.S. third-quarter economic growth forecast [1] - The July core PCE price index increased by 0.27% month-on-month and rose to 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with Goldman Sachs' previous predictions and market expectations [1] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.20% month-on-month and increased to 2.60% year-on-year, consistent with Goldman Sachs and market forecasts [1] Group 2 - In July, U.S. personal income grew by 0.4% month-on-month, driven by increases in employment compensation, owner income, rental income, and asset income [3] - Personal spending also showed strong performance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, slightly above Goldman Sachs' forecast [3] - The savings rate in July remained at 4.4%, a slight decrease from the previously reported June figure of 4.5% [3] Group 3 - The U.S. goods trade deficit widened significantly in July, expanding by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding Goldman Sachs and market expectations [4] - The widening deficit was primarily due to a $18.6 billion increase in imports, while exports saw a slight decrease [4] - Goldman Sachs emphasized that the unexpected trade deficit is the main reason for the downward adjustment of the third-quarter GDP tracking estimate by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chilean government maintains its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 2.5% [1] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast reflects the government's assessment of economic conditions and potential recovery trends [1]

Group 1 - The Chilean government maintains its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 2.5% [1]

Group 1 - Barclays no longer expects the US to enter a recession in the second half of 2025 and has raised its economic growth forecast [1] - The forecast for the Eurozone GDP in 2025 is now flat, previously expected to shrink by 0.2% [1]

值得注意的是，开盘前美元指数也一度急跌。（ 美元，突然急跌！ ） | 5779.41 | | 昨夜 | 5849.72 | 成交额 | 0.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -70.31 | -1.20% | 今井 | 5811.98 | 成交 = | 0 | | 上涨 | 129 | | 1 | 下跌 | 371 | | 最高价 | 5811.98 | 最低价 | 5775.80 | 近20日 | -3.59% | | 四区四 | 26.9 | 市净率 | 4.97 | 今年来 | -1.74% | | स्टेबिय 五日 | | 目K | | 周K | | | 6184.84 | | 叠加 设均线 MA 5:5880.25↓ 10:5961.46↓ 20:6018.48↓ | | | | | | | | | | 6147.43 | | 5735.90 2024-12-17 2025-01-08 | | 573.31 | 01-28 | 02-13 | 03-04 | 美国大型银行股集体下跌， 花旗集团跌超6%，富国银行、美国银行跌超5%，摩根士丹利 ...