港大指，市民消费模式转变及跨境消费已带来不可逆转的结构性改变，但就业市场适应力正逐步增强， 预计本季失业率将轻微上升至3.7%。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网 香港报道：1月8日，香港大学预测，本港今年首季经济增长将放缓至3.1%，初步估算全年经济 增长2.5%至3%。 港大估计，本季私人消费开支，将由去年第4季预测按年上升2.8%改善至3.9%，但货品出口由预测升 14.3%放缓至8.2%，进口由升14.6%放缓至8.8%。投资则由按年升1.9%，转跌3.5%。 港大经济及商业策略研究所亚太经济合作研究项目预计，虽然去年美国联储局三度减息令利率累计下调 0.75厘，但受制港息调整的滞后效应，加上预料今年减息步伐缓慢，香港未能实时受惠于减息效应。 港大预测，港去年第4季经济增长3.5%，去年全年经济增长3.4%，较2024全年的2.5%增长为高。 ...

Core Insights - The Meilun Property Price Index has risen for five consecutive weeks, currently at 130.96 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.28% and a year-to-date increase of 2.21%, reaching a new high since August of the previous year [1] - The recent increase in the property price index is influenced by the resumption of interest rate cuts in mid-September and the effects of Hong Kong's Policy Address [1] - The impact of the new round of tariff wars, which began last Friday, on the property market remains to be observed, but analysts believe the effects will be temporary due to both China and the U.S. leaving room for easing tensions [1] Property Market Analysis - The Meilun Confidence Index, which reflects the selling attitude of property owners, has risen to 76.7 points, increasing by 1.5% week-on-week and remaining above 75 points for ten consecutive weeks, indicating a stable market [1] - The Confidence Index has been above the average value for 45 weeks, suggesting that property prices are likely to continue rising, with an expected increase of approximately 2% this quarter [1]