Market Interpretation - The global financial market experienced significant turbulence on January 6, 2026, due to a sudden military action by the U.S. against Venezuela, resulting in the arrest of President Maduro and his wife. This event is noted as the most direct and dramatic intervention in Latin America since the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989 [1][5] - The geopolitical turmoil ignited risk aversion in the market, leading to a rapid increase in gold prices, with spot gold reaching near a one-week high and approaching historical record levels. This reinforces gold's status as the ultimate safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty [1][5] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the final PMI data for December from European and American countries, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials and further developments in geopolitical situations [1][5] Gold Technical Analysis - On Monday, gold exhibited a strong pattern of "breakout-retrace-rebound," breaking the key resistance level of 4400 early in the session and reaching a high of 4439 during the Asian and European trading hours. A brief pullback occurred during the U.S. session, with a low of 4395, followed by a quick rebound, ultimately hitting a new intraday high of 4459 [2][6][7] - The market currently lacks major data guidance, making technical structure the core driving logic. The head-and-shoulders bottom pattern remains intact, with the neckline at 4400 confirming a "top-bottom conversion." As long as this level is not effectively broken, the bullish trend remains solid [7] - A daily candlestick formed a strong bullish body, indicating that strong trends typically accompany continuation patterns. There is a high probability of an upward continuation in the short term. Key focus for the 4-hour cycle is on the performance during the Asian and European sessions; a slow rise above the previous high of 4459 could push gold prices towards the target of 4500 [7] Silver Technical Analysis - Silver showed a fluctuating upward trend on Monday, gradually rising and reaching a high of 77.8, indicating a strong continuation of the bullish trend. The recent performance of silver has closely followed that of gold, with stable fluctuations and no significant pullbacks, suggesting that bullish momentum is still building [3][8] - Given the current trend strength and expected price range, silver is likely to continue its upward trajectory, with target zones focused on 78.0-80.0. Short-term attention should be on the effectiveness of the support at 75.5; as long as this support holds, the slow upward trend is expected to persist [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the gold market shows fluctuations, with spot gold prices experiencing a high of $4,550 per ounce before retreating due to margin adjustments by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3]. Price Movement Summary - Spot gold closed at $4,332.45 per ounce on January 4, with a notable upward trend starting from early November last year [1]. - The market has shown a pattern of testing the $4,300 per ounce level twice, followed by rebounds, with recent highs approaching $4,400 per ounce [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a potential head and shoulders bottom formation, with current prices around $4,330 per ounce, suggesting further developments are to be observed [3]. Technical Indicators Summary - The 4-hour MACD indicator shows signs of upward movement, while the RSI is at 52.85, indicating a neutral position with a slight bias towards the upper range [3]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,400 per ounce (December 30 high), $4,445 per ounce (December 23 and 24 lows), and around $4,500 per ounce (previously broken trend line) [3]. Support Levels Summary - Immediate support is noted at $4,305 per ounce, with additional support from the December 31 low of $4,274 per ounce [4]. - If prices decline further, the December low of $4,170 per ounce will be a critical level to watch [4]. - The market's technical shape may be influenced by upcoming news, which could lead to a potential drop to around $4,200 per ounce if unexpected developments occur [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the bullish trend in the gold market, with spot gold prices reaching a high of $4,550 before experiencing a pullback due to margin increases by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [1] - The technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a head and shoulders bottom pattern, suggesting potential upward movement if it stabilizes above $4,400, with targets set at $4,500 and $4,550 [1] - The article discusses the legal implications of U.S. military actions in Venezuela, emphasizing that such actions are viewed as illegal and not justifiable under international law, which could impact geopolitical stability and investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Technical indicators on the intraday chart show positive momentum, with the MACD turning upward and the RSI slightly favoring bullish sentiment at 52.85 [2] - Resistance levels are identified at $4,400 and $4,445, while support levels are noted at $4,305 and $4,274, with further downside targets near $4,170 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom of the 30-year treasury bond futures was broken, weakening the pattern, and attention should be paid to the subsequent repair strength. TL2603 fell back after a rebound and is in a short-term adjustment. If it further declines after the repair, subsequent market conditions need to be dealt with cautiously [1]. - The data tracking of treasury bond futures indicates that the main contract is about to change, and the cash-and-carry strategy of the 2603 contract still has some participation value. This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated, and the trading activity increased overall. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contract decreased overall, and the IRR increased except for TL. Currently, the IRR of T2603 and TL2603 is still significantly higher than the capital interest rate [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - This week, the trends of T and TL were differentiated. T rose slightly, while TL declined continuously since Wednesday. TL2603 first rose and then fell, and TL2512 broke below the upper edge of the bottom area (around 115.57) on Friday, breaking the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern and closing near the 60 - day line [6]. 1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook - TL2603 showed signs of weakening after breaking below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom on Friday. From the perspective of the wave theory, the adjustment since November 5th may form a platform type, and it may be at the end of the short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the repair strength. If the market declines again after the repair, the risk of further continuation of the adjustment needs to be concerned. TL2603 was weaker than T2603 this week. T2603 also broke below 115.57 on Friday, weakening the pattern. If the end of the platform type forms a phased low, the subsequent market can still be optimistic [9]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated. As of November 21st, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.460, 105.855, 108.430, and 115.57 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.006, -0.020, +0.015, and -0.59 yuan compared with the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity increased compared with last week, and the trading volume/holding volume increased for each maturity [15]. - As of November 21st, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of treasury bond futures decreased across the board, while that of the 2603 contracts increased across the board, indicating that participants continued to shift positions [15]. - As of November 21st, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of each maturity decreased overall, with little change in TL. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were -0.07, -0.05, -0.11, and -0.13 yuan respectively. In terms of IRR, the IRR of the CTD of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.66%, 1.60%, 1.77%, and 1.75% respectively, increasing except for TL. The cash - and - carry strategies of T2603 and TL2603 still have some participation value. The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts decreased overall this week [18].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a correction phase, with potential for a short-term bottom, while maintaining an overall bullish trend as long as the support level of 3201 is not breached [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The gold market has shown significant volatility this week, with sharp upward movements followed by substantial declines, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [2]. - The price reached a high of 3435 before experiencing a pullback, with key support levels at 3305 and 3292 being tested [1][2]. - The analysis suggests that the market is in a corrective phase within a larger bullish trend, with expectations for a potential third wave of upward movement if the market closes positively [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The daily chart indicates that the market is currently in a corrective phase, with the potential for a recovery as long as it remains above the 3201 support level [2]. - Short-term moving averages are showing a bullish crossover, and the price is expected to stabilize above the 5-day moving average [2]. - The hourly chart reflects a challenging trading environment, with significant price swings and the potential formation of a "head and shoulders" pattern, suggesting a need for caution before entering new positions [4]. Group 3: Other Commodities - In the silver market, the price is oscillating between resistance at 32.9 and support at 32, indicating a range-bound trading environment [5]. - The oil market is showing a bullish trend, with prices breaking through key resistance levels and confirming support at 60.4, suggesting potential for further upward movement [7].