市场解读： 1月6日，在2026年开年之际，全球金融市场迎来了一场剧烈的震动。美国对委内瑞拉发动突然军事行 动，直接逮捕了总统马杜罗及其妻子，这一事件堪称自1989年美国入侵巴拿马以来，拉美地区最直接、 最具戏剧性的干预行动。这一地缘政治风暴瞬间点燃了市场的避险情绪，推动黄金价格急速攀升，现货 金一度触及近一周高点，甚至逼近历史纪录高点。这不仅仅是一场政治事件，更是对黄金作为终极避险 资产地位的又一次有力印证。在不确定性笼罩全球的背景下，黄金的牛市行情似乎才刚刚进入高潮阶 段。本交易日将出炉欧美国家12月PMI数据终值，投资者需要予以留意，另外，需要关注美联储官员的 讲话和地缘局势的进一步消息。 黄金技术分析 黄金周一盘面呈现"突破-回落-再拉升"的强势格局：早盘上破4400关键阻力后，亚欧盘延续上行态势最 高触及4439；美盘时段出现短暂回调，最低下探4395后迅速企稳反弹，午夜时段再度发力冲高，刷新日 内高点至4459。 当前市场缺乏重大数据指引，技术结构成为核心主导逻辑：其一，头肩底形态保持完整，颈线位4400实 现"顶底转换"，该价位未有效破位前，多头趋势根基稳固；其二，日线级别收出实体大阳，强趋势下 ...

1月4日（周日），黄金市场休市，现货黄金价格收报4332.45美元/盎司。 回顾近期走势，现货黄金自去年11月初开启上行走势，后续创下4550美元/盎司的历史新高，此后受芝 加哥商品交易所调整保证金相关措施影响，价格出现高位回落。 日内图表显示的技术指标呈现特定运行态势。4小时移动平均趋同背离（MACD）指标出现向上转动的 迹象；相对强弱指数（RSI）数值为52.85，处于中性区间，呈现小幅偏向区间上沿的运行状态。 从关键价位观察，当前市场关注的阻力区域集中在12月30日高点附近的4400美元/盎司，进一步上方的 阻力区域包括12月23日和24日低点所在的4445美元/盎司区域，以及前期已破裂的趋势线附近，该区域 现大致位于4500美元/盎司。 支撑区域方面，日内水平支撑位在4305美元/盎司附近，另有12月31日低点4274美元/盎司形成的支撑区 域。若后续价格进一步下行，12月初低点附近的4170美元/盎司区域将成为重要的关注节点。 当前市场的技术形态仍可能受到后续消息面因素的影响。若出现意外消息导致现有底部形态发生改变， 黄金价格可能进一步下探至4200美元/盎司附近区域，市场后续运行态势需结合价格变化 ...

法律专家认为，贩毒和帮派暴力被视为犯罪活动，并没有达到公认可以发动武装冲突的国际标准，因此 没有理由采取军事行动。哥伦比亚大学专门研究国家安全法的法学教授Matthew Waxman称："仅凭一项 刑事起诉本身，并不足以授权动用军事力量推翻一个外国政府，而政府很可能也会把这一点归因于自卫 理论。" 从技术面来看，本周两次试探4300，两次反弹4400，属于大跌后结构性的调整。周三，周五这波黄金在 底部已经有头肩底形态，站稳4400后，多头会再次爆发，上看4500，4550并且大趋势下不猜顶，但没有 站稳4400，则属于大跌后的低位震荡，所以，下周大概率也是如此看法，目前收盘在4330附近，另外， 要注意的是，如果下周有意外消息面的影响，破坏了目前的头肩底形态，黄金的降温行为可能要到4200 附近，这一点需要注意谨慎对待。 日内图表上的技术指标表现积极。4小时移动平均趋同背离(MACD)向上转动，增强了看涨动能。相对 强弱指数(RSI)位于52.85，处于中性，略微偏向多头。 阻力位在12月30日高点附近4400美元，前方是12月23日和24日的低点，位于4445美元区域和已破裂的趋 势线支撑，现约在4500美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom of the 30-year treasury bond futures was broken, weakening the pattern, and attention should be paid to the subsequent repair strength. TL2603 fell back after a rebound and is in a short-term adjustment. If it further declines after the repair, subsequent market conditions need to be dealt with cautiously [1]. - The data tracking of treasury bond futures indicates that the main contract is about to change, and the cash-and-carry strategy of the 2603 contract still has some participation value. This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated, and the trading activity increased overall. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contract decreased overall, and the IRR increased except for TL. Currently, the IRR of T2603 and TL2603 is still significantly higher than the capital interest rate [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - This week, the trends of T and TL were differentiated. T rose slightly, while TL declined continuously since Wednesday. TL2603 first rose and then fell, and TL2512 broke below the upper edge of the bottom area (around 115.57) on Friday, breaking the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern and closing near the 60 - day line [6]. 1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook - TL2603 showed signs of weakening after breaking below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom on Friday. From the perspective of the wave theory, the adjustment since November 5th may form a platform type, and it may be at the end of the short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the repair strength. If the market declines again after the repair, the risk of further continuation of the adjustment needs to be concerned. TL2603 was weaker than T2603 this week. T2603 also broke below 115.57 on Friday, weakening the pattern. If the end of the platform type forms a phased low, the subsequent market can still be optimistic [9]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated. As of November 21st, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.460, 105.855, 108.430, and 115.57 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.006, -0.020, +0.015, and -0.59 yuan compared with the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity increased compared with last week, and the trading volume/holding volume increased for each maturity [15]. - As of November 21st, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of treasury bond futures decreased across the board, while that of the 2603 contracts increased across the board, indicating that participants continued to shift positions [15]. - As of November 21st, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of each maturity decreased overall, with little change in TL. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were -0.07, -0.05, -0.11, and -0.13 yuan respectively. In terms of IRR, the IRR of the CTD of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.66%, 1.60%, 1.77%, and 1.75% respectively, increasing except for TL. The cash - and - carry strategies of T2603 and TL2603 still have some participation value. The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts decreased overall this week [18].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a correction phase, with potential for a short-term bottom, while maintaining an overall bullish trend as long as the support level of 3201 is not breached [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The gold market has shown significant volatility this week, with sharp upward movements followed by substantial declines, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [2]. - The price reached a high of 3435 before experiencing a pullback, with key support levels at 3305 and 3292 being tested [1][2]. - The analysis suggests that the market is in a corrective phase within a larger bullish trend, with expectations for a potential third wave of upward movement if the market closes positively [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The daily chart indicates that the market is currently in a corrective phase, with the potential for a recovery as long as it remains above the 3201 support level [2]. - Short-term moving averages are showing a bullish crossover, and the price is expected to stabilize above the 5-day moving average [2]. - The hourly chart reflects a challenging trading environment, with significant price swings and the potential formation of a "head and shoulders" pattern, suggesting a need for caution before entering new positions [4]. Group 3: Other Commodities - In the silver market, the price is oscillating between resistance at 32.9 and support at 32, indicating a range-bound trading environment [5]. - The oil market is showing a bullish trend, with prices breaking through key resistance levels and confirming support at 60.4, suggesting potential for further upward movement [7].