比特币领跌的时候，市场到底在害怕什么，说白了，就是在问一句：当屏幕上一串红色数字冲在最前面 时，是谁先慌了，是电脑里的曲线，还是屏幕外面那批人的心。很多人习惯把比特币看成一个单独的投 机品，其实每次它当"跌幅第一"的时候，背后都是一整片市场情绪一起被按下去了，只不过它跑得最 快、摔得也最早。 这一次更微妙的地方在于：消息面看起来挺体面，监管更清晰，有机构把它写进报表，立法讨论方向稳 定，名校基金也拿出真金白银配置，组合在一起像一盘利好拼盘。可价格的选择，是从高位拐头向下。 信息在往上堆，曲线在往下走，中间那段"错位感"，就是本轮比特币领跌真正勾出的问题：图上的线究 竟有多大话语权，水面下那股资金又准备流向哪里。 图上的线在亮红灯，不是"迷信"，是习惯被叠加出来 在技术派的世界里，比特币从来不是孤立的一串数字，而是一整群人集体操作之后留下的轨迹。每一次 恐慌抛售、追高加仓、被动止损，最后都会被压缩进一条价格曲线里。久而久之，这条曲线就有了节奏 感，有了被人反复研究的技术节奏。 有研究者把几轮完整大周期摊开，从一轮极端低点到同轮极端高点，一段段去量时间，很意外地发现： 从底到顶，大约都是一百五十多天左右。上一些周 ...

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 短期利多发酵，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.71%日涨幅，移仓换月中，量仓收 缩。现阶段，短期利多因素发酵，支撑低估值钢价回升，但螺纹需求将 季节性走弱，且供应有所回升，基本面并无实质性改善，钢价仍易承 压，上行驱动不强，后续走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情 况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.64%日涨幅，移仓换月中，量仓 收缩。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，而热卷供需格局有所好转， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for Iron Ore 2601 are all in a state of shock, with an overall view of shock and weakness. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Demand is weakening while supply remains high, so the market fundamentals are weak and the ore price is under pressure. However, the switching of the arbitrage logic provides support, and the short - term trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively shock, shock, and shock with a weak bias. The overall view is shock and weakness, and the core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the continuous fluctuation of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Terminal consumption of ore is weakening, and steel mills' profitability is poor with unsolved industrial contradictions, so ore demand will continue to be weak. Although domestic port ore arrivals are continuously falling, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly, and subsequent arrivals are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overseas supply remains active, and domestic ore supply is stable, so ore supply remains high. The market fundamentals are weak, and the ore price is under pressure. The switching of the arbitrage logic provides support, and the short - term trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].