新疆昌吉国家高新技术产业开发区新疆康利来生物科技开发有限公司包装车间，员工在生产线上作业。 何 龙 摄（中经视觉） 专家认为，当前奶业发展面临着结构性挑战与机遇。挑战主要是消费潜力释放不足，城乡差距制约市场扩 容；供需结构性矛盾突出，成本压力持续加大；利益联结机制待完善，产业链协同效率偏低。挑战中蕴含机 中国工程院院士、中国奶业协会代理会长沈建忠介绍，转型升级驱动节本增效成果显著。2024年，进口苜蓿 干草109.53万吨，比2018年减少20.1%；全年审批种用奶牛进口1.11万头，比2018年减少66.4%。随着智慧养 殖、装备升级推进，绿色转型加快，融合发展产业新格局逐步形成，南北产区协同，特色奶彰显区域优势， 生鲜乳价格协商机制覆盖80%的产区，"奶农办加工"等模式推广。企业竞逐共促行业竞争力提升，大型集团 领航，中小企业和家庭农场实现差异化发展。 产能供给质效双升 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年。国务院参事、农业农村部原副部长于康震表示，"十四五"期间奶业发展取得 突破性成就。产能供给实现质效双升，安全底线全面筑牢，科技驱动产业升级，消费信心全面重塑，品牌矩 阵构建竞争优势，国际影响力持续攀升，融合发 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a critical transformation and upgrade period in 2024, with a slight reduction in production capacity aligned with market demand, an increase in the proportion of large-scale farming, and a sustained enhancement in overall industry quality [1] Group 1: Production and Quality - The total milk production in China reached 40.794 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, while dairy product output was 29.62 million tons, down 1.9% [1] - The inspection pass rate for fresh milk reached 99.96%, with quality safety indicators such as milk protein and milk fat remaining at high levels, and key monitored banned additives like melamine have not been detected for 16 consecutive years [1] Group 2: Industry Structure and Efficiency - The proportion of large-scale farms with over 100 cows has increased to 78%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year, with an average milk yield per cow of 9.9 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous year [1] - Over 99% of large-scale farms are equipped with total mixed ration (TMR) mixers, and 100% of raw milk production has achieved mechanized milking [1] Group 3: Consumption and Market Dynamics - The main business revenue of large-scale dairy processing enterprises reached 510.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while per capita dairy product consumption fell to 40.5 kg, a decrease of 1.9 kg from the previous year [2] - The average purchase price of raw milk in major dairy-producing provinces was 3.32 yuan per kilogram, down 13.5% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Competitive Positioning - The competitiveness of the domestic dairy industry continues to strengthen, with domestic milk testing showing compliance with Chinese, American, and EU standards for aflatoxin M1, and a 100% pass rate for heavy metal contaminants like lead, chromium, mercury, and arsenic [2] - Indicators such as lactoferrin, lactoglobulin, and glycomacropeptide in domestic milk outperform similar imported products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy farming industry in China is facing significant challenges, with cumulative income losses projected to reach 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, and losses from fresh milk powder estimated at 20 billion yuan. The current reliance on government support and project subsidies is insufficient to fundamentally resolve these issues, and capacity reduction is deemed the most effective way to achieve supply-demand balance and stabilize milk prices [2][6]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry is experiencing a phase of supply-demand imbalance, with consumer demand showing signs of weakness. In 2024, the national dairy product output is expected to reach 29.618 million tons, indicating relative stability in overall production [2][6]. - The bottom of the current cycle has been identified, with a reversal expected in approximately one year [4][5]. Recommendations for Recovery - Continuous implementation of industry relief policies for 1-2 years is necessary, focusing on leading dairy enterprises to manage capacity reduction effectively. This includes adjusting the breeding structure and increasing the proportion of mature cows to 55%-60% over the next year [6][9]. - Leading dairy companies are encouraged to stabilize basic production capacity through mergers, equity participation, and long-term management of social pastures over the next three years [6][9]. Growth Potential - Economic growth is expected to drive an increase in milk consumption, with an estimated annual consumption increment of 1 million tons, despite a decline in population [8]. - The national dairy cow stock is projected to be controlled at an overall increase of no more than 500,000 heads during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual increase of 100,000 heads [8]. Strategic Upgrades - Establishing a strategic regulation mechanism for the dairy farming industry is recommended, drawing on successful management experiences from developed dairy countries [11][12]. - A legal and effective fresh milk pricing mechanism should be developed to reflect supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and consumer conditions [11][12]. - Promoting the integration of dairy farming and feed production, enhancing land support policies, and ensuring each dairy cow has a land allocation of 2 acres are also suggested [11][12].