奶业转型升级

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奶业转型升级闯新路
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-07-17 22:16
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a transformation aimed at high-quality development, with a focus on stabilizing raw milk acquisition, enhancing industrial collaboration, increasing financial support, and improving technology and quality safety [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Development Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the dairy industry has achieved significant breakthroughs, with improvements in production capacity and quality, safety standards, and technological advancements [2][3]. - By 2024, the proportion of large-scale farms with over 100 heads of cattle is expected to reach 78%, a 2 percentage point increase year-on-year, and the average milk yield per cow is projected to be 9.9 tons, up by 0.5 tons from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Structural Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces structural challenges such as insufficient consumer demand, urban-rural disparities, and ongoing cost pressures, but also presents opportunities driven by health trends and rural revitalization policies [3][4]. - The dairy industry is expected to see a shift towards personalized nutrition solutions, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children, which aligns with the trend of consumption upgrading [6]. Group 3: Integration of Production, Processing, and Sales - The integration of production, processing, and sales in the dairy industry has reached 65%, with a goal to exceed 75% by 2030, emphasizing vertical integration by processing companies and direct sales by family farms [5]. - The deep processing of dairy products is seen as a key strategy to enhance value and address cyclical fluctuations in raw milk supply [5]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Product Innovation - The Chinese dairy consumption market is challenged by a lack of awareness regarding nutritional needs and a mismatch between production capabilities and social demand [7][9]. - Cheese is identified as a promising product category for growth, with potential to address seasonal supply imbalances and enhance the overall quality of the dairy supply chain [7][8]. Group 5: Future Directions - The industry is encouraged to enhance public awareness of dairy nutrition, optimize distribution channels, and improve quality control measures to support sustainable development [9].
2024年全国牛奶产能缩减,乳品质量保持较高水平
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-07-14 13:47
Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a critical transformation and upgrade period in 2024, with a slight reduction in production capacity aligned with market demand, an increase in the proportion of large-scale farming, and a sustained enhancement in overall industry quality [1] Group 1: Production and Quality - The total milk production in China reached 40.794 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, while dairy product output was 29.62 million tons, down 1.9% [1] - The inspection pass rate for fresh milk reached 99.96%, with quality safety indicators such as milk protein and milk fat remaining at high levels, and key monitored banned additives like melamine have not been detected for 16 consecutive years [1] Group 2: Industry Structure and Efficiency - The proportion of large-scale farms with over 100 cows has increased to 78%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year, with an average milk yield per cow of 9.9 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous year [1] - Over 99% of large-scale farms are equipped with total mixed ration (TMR) mixers, and 100% of raw milk production has achieved mechanized milking [1] Group 3: Consumption and Market Dynamics - The main business revenue of large-scale dairy processing enterprises reached 510.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while per capita dairy product consumption fell to 40.5 kg, a decrease of 1.9 kg from the previous year [2] - The average purchase price of raw milk in major dairy-producing provinces was 3.32 yuan per kilogram, down 13.5% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Competitive Positioning - The competitiveness of the domestic dairy industry continues to strengthen, with domestic milk testing showing compliance with Chinese, American, and EU standards for aflatoxin M1, and a 100% pass rate for heavy metal contaminants like lead, chromium, mercury, and arsenic [2] - Indicators such as lactoferrin, lactoglobulin, and glycomacropeptide in domestic milk outperform similar imported products [2]
专家:2023年至今奶牛养殖业损失700亿元
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-13 14:21
Core Viewpoint - The dairy farming industry in China is facing significant challenges, with cumulative income losses projected to reach 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, and losses from fresh milk powder estimated at 20 billion yuan. The current reliance on government support and project subsidies is insufficient to fundamentally resolve these issues, and capacity reduction is deemed the most effective way to achieve supply-demand balance and stabilize milk prices [2][6]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry is experiencing a phase of supply-demand imbalance, with consumer demand showing signs of weakness. In 2024, the national dairy product output is expected to reach 29.618 million tons, indicating relative stability in overall production [2][6]. - The bottom of the current cycle has been identified, with a reversal expected in approximately one year [4][5]. Recommendations for Recovery - Continuous implementation of industry relief policies for 1-2 years is necessary, focusing on leading dairy enterprises to manage capacity reduction effectively. This includes adjusting the breeding structure and increasing the proportion of mature cows to 55%-60% over the next year [6][9]. - Leading dairy companies are encouraged to stabilize basic production capacity through mergers, equity participation, and long-term management of social pastures over the next three years [6][9]. Growth Potential - Economic growth is expected to drive an increase in milk consumption, with an estimated annual consumption increment of 1 million tons, despite a decline in population [8]. - The national dairy cow stock is projected to be controlled at an overall increase of no more than 500,000 heads during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual increase of 100,000 heads [8]. Strategic Upgrades - Establishing a strategic regulation mechanism for the dairy farming industry is recommended, drawing on successful management experiences from developed dairy countries [11][12]. - A legal and effective fresh milk pricing mechanism should be developed to reflect supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and consumer conditions [11][12]. - Promoting the integration of dairy farming and feed production, enhancing land support policies, and ensuring each dairy cow has a land allocation of 2 acres are also suggested [11][12].