新华财经银川9月26日电（记者苏醒、陈永强）奶业下行周期已持续三年多，行业竞争却 "卷" 到白热 化、消费热情低迷，何时终结成为业界焦点。进入到9月份，奶价呈现出企稳回暖态势，部分地区散奶 价格涨幅明显。 从半年报来看，头部企业业绩分化加速，区域乳企继续承压。记者在宁夏部分养殖园区走访了解到，近 期部分与乳企签订长期稳定合同关系的牧场交奶较为顺利，基本可以实现"应交尽交"。一位接受采访的 养殖场负责人也表示，受乳企节前备货等因素影响，原奶供需短期内有所改善。但他较为悲观地 说："行业整体供需关系并未根本扭转，奶价回升空间不大，预计国庆之后奶价仍会有所回探。" 对于近期奶价出现止跌企稳的迹象，部分受访者认为，这与中秋节、国庆节"双节"临近，奶企提前备货 有关。也有观点认为奶价企稳原因在于供需有所改善。在奶价低位运行、牧场亏损的背景下，奶产业产 能持续去化，带动原奶市场供需渐趋平衡。 奶价现企稳回暖迹象 2022年下半年以来，受内外部多重因素影响，国内生鲜乳价格持续下行。根据农业农村部发布的数据， 主产省集贸市场生鲜乳平均价格自2021年8月中旬最高达到4.38元／公斤，2022年开始转入下行周期至 今。今年以来 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a need for capacity reduction as a key strategy for alleviating industry distress [2][4][10] - The bottom of the current milk price cycle has been established, with a potential reversal expected within a year, making the second half of this year or the first half of next year critical [10] Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2022, the dairy industry saw an increase of over 1 million dairy cows, resulting in excessive production capacity amid declining consumption [2][4] - The dairy farming sector is projected to incur cumulative income losses of 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, with losses from fresh milk powder reaching 20 billion yuan [2] Production Trends - The total production of raw milk in China is expected to decline by 2.8% in 2024, marking the first decrease since 2018 [3] - The number of dairy cows in the top 10 producing provinces is estimated to decrease by 6.7% by the end of 2024, with around 12 million dairy cows expected to be eliminated from the industry [3][4] Market Dynamics - Despite the acceleration of capacity reduction and favorable conditions such as rising international milk prices and falling feed costs, the domestic raw milk supply remains ample due to slowing downstream demand [4] - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces was 3.04 yuan/kg as of early July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5% [4] Strategic Recommendations - Industry leaders are advised to control the overall increase in dairy cow numbers to no more than 500,000 during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an annual increase capped at 100,000 [5] - Major dairy companies should enhance their self-sourced milk supply through mergers, equity stakes, and long-term management of social farms to stabilize foundational production capacity [4][5] Consumer Trends - There is a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, nutritious dairy products, with a notable increase in demand for B-end (commercial) dairy products, which currently sees 70%-80% of its market share dominated by imported brands [7] - The industry is responding to the evolving nutritional needs of various demographic groups by developing tailored products for different age segments [7][8] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see a significant adjustment in production capacity, with a projected decline exceeding 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [9] - The market is anticipated to reach a supply-demand balance by the third quarter of 2025, driven by the exit of smaller farms and consumption stimulus policies [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy farming industry in China is facing significant challenges, with cumulative income losses projected to reach 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, and losses from fresh milk powder estimated at 20 billion yuan. The current reliance on government support and project subsidies is insufficient to fundamentally resolve these issues, and capacity reduction is deemed the most effective way to achieve supply-demand balance and stabilize milk prices [2][6]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry is experiencing a phase of supply-demand imbalance, with consumer demand showing signs of weakness. In 2024, the national dairy product output is expected to reach 29.618 million tons, indicating relative stability in overall production [2][6]. - The bottom of the current cycle has been identified, with a reversal expected in approximately one year [4][5]. Recommendations for Recovery - Continuous implementation of industry relief policies for 1-2 years is necessary, focusing on leading dairy enterprises to manage capacity reduction effectively. This includes adjusting the breeding structure and increasing the proportion of mature cows to 55%-60% over the next year [6][9]. - Leading dairy companies are encouraged to stabilize basic production capacity through mergers, equity participation, and long-term management of social pastures over the next three years [6][9]. Growth Potential - Economic growth is expected to drive an increase in milk consumption, with an estimated annual consumption increment of 1 million tons, despite a decline in population [8]. - The national dairy cow stock is projected to be controlled at an overall increase of no more than 500,000 heads during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual increase of 100,000 heads [8]. Strategic Upgrades - Establishing a strategic regulation mechanism for the dairy farming industry is recommended, drawing on successful management experiences from developed dairy countries [11][12]. - A legal and effective fresh milk pricing mechanism should be developed to reflect supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and consumer conditions [11][12]. - Promoting the integration of dairy farming and feed production, enhancing land support policies, and ensuring each dairy cow has a land allocation of 2 acres are also suggested [11][12].