11月25日，截至9时51分，电子ETF（515260）盘中表现活跃，场内价格现涨2%，成交额为542.53万 元，基金最新规模为5.63亿元。 责任编辑：杨赐 兴业证券指出，3D打印在消费电子领域加速渗透，折叠机铰链、手表/手机中框等场景应用元年开启。 AI浪潮带动算力需求爆发，服务器、AI芯片、光芯片、存储、PCB等环节价值量提升。存储价格触底回 升，封测环节稼动率逐渐回升，先进封装需求爆发。国产设备先进工艺突破持续推进，"先进工艺扩 产"将成为自主可控主线。 电子ETF（515260）及其联接基金（联接A：012550，联接C：012551）被动跟踪电子50指数，该指数 前十大权重股分别为立讯精密、寒武纪、工业富联、中芯国际、海光信息、胜宏科技、北方华创、澜起 科技、中科曙光、京东方A。 数据来源于沪深交易所、公开资料等。 风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金 的风险收益特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金投 资须谨慎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has decided to revoke the Validated End-User (VEU) authorization for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in China, aiming to further restrict China's access to advanced chip manufacturing technology, which may exacerbate global semiconductor supply chain tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Companies - Samsung China Semiconductor and SK Hynix Semiconductor (China) will no longer enjoy VEU exemptions, meaning they must apply for individual export licenses for each relevant transaction, which could hinder their operations in China [2][3]. - The revocation of VEU will lead to stricter scrutiny of semiconductor production at these companies' Chinese facilities, potentially affecting supply chains and capacity expansion [3]. - The Samsung Xi'an factory is one of the largest NAND flash production bases globally, while SK Hynix's Wuxi facility is its largest overseas production base for DRAM [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Implications - This policy change may result in capacity freezes, forced capital expenditure relocations, customer shifts, and supply chain reallocations for Samsung and SK Hynix in China [3]. - Domestic integrated circuit industry professionals believe that this move opens a window of opportunity for local storage manufacturers like Yangtze Memory Technologies and ChangXin Memory Technologies, providing them with clearer market gaps and growth opportunities [3][4]. - The urgency for domestic alternatives in equipment and materials is heightened, benefiting local companies such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, and Tuojing Technology [3][4]. Group 3: Future Considerations - There is a 120-day buffer period for the policy change, during which further adjustments may occur, and the likelihood of production halts is considered low [5]. - Long-term, the U.S. strategy to limit China may backfire by harming the business interests of allies and accelerating the growth of non-U.S. ecosystems [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has decided to revoke the Validated End-User (VEU) authorization for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in China, aiming to further restrict China's access to advanced chip manufacturing technology, which may exacerbate global semiconductor supply chain tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Companies - Samsung China Semiconductor and SK Hynix Semiconductor (China) will no longer enjoy VEU exemptions, requiring them to apply for individual export licenses for each transaction involving semiconductor manufacturing equipment from the U.S. [2] - Samsung's Xi'an factory is one of the largest NAND flash production bases globally, while SK Hynix's Wuxi facility is its largest overseas production base for DRAM [2][3]. - The revocation of VEU will subject semiconductor production at these companies' Chinese facilities to stricter scrutiny, potentially affecting supply chains and capacity expansion [3]. Group 2: Industry Implications - This policy change may lead to capacity freezes, forced capital expenditure relocations, customer migrations, and supply chain reallocations for Samsung and SK Hynix in China [3]. - Domestic integrated circuit industry professionals believe that this move opens a window of opportunity for domestic storage manufacturers like Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies, providing them with clearer market gaps and growth opportunities [3][4]. - The urgency for domestic alternatives in equipment and materials is heightened, benefiting local companies such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, and Tuojing Technology [3][4]. Group 3: Future Considerations - There is a 120-day buffer period for the policy change, during which further adjustments may occur, and the likelihood of production halts is considered low [4]. - Long-term, the U.S. restrictions on China may harm the commercial interests of its allies and accelerate the growth of non-U.S. ecosystems [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Storage Industry, specifically focusing on DRAM, NAND Flash, and related technologies [1][3][5][21] Core Insights and Arguments - **DRAM Market Trends**: The DRAM market is expected to see price increases in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 due to supply constraints from manufacturers ceasing production of DDR3 and DDR4, alongside significant demand for server DDR4 modules and consumer electronics DDR4 chips [1][4][16] - **NAND Flash Demand**: The NAND Flash market is experiencing price increases driven by international circumstances, with enterprise SSD demand expected to support price growth in Q3 [1][21] - **AI Impact on Storage**: The global AI-driven storage market is projected to grow from $28.7 billion in 2024 to $255.2 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.4% [1][5] - **CXL Technology**: CXL (Compute Express Link) is anticipated to reach a market size of nearly $16 billion by 2028, with China accounting for approximately $8 billion. CXL enhances memory utilization and reduces costs by about 50% per GB compared to traditional solutions [2][9][10] - **HBM Advantages**: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is expected to constitute over 10% of global DRAM capacity by 2025, with a market size projected to grow from $697.9 billion in 2024 to $893.4 billion in 2029, reflecting a CAGR of about 5% [1][8] Additional Important Insights - **Domestic Market Growth**: The Chinese enterprise SSD market is projected to recover to $6.25 billion in 2024, with expectations to reach $9.1 billion by 2029, indicating significant growth potential for local storage module manufacturers [3][24] - **3D DRAM Development**: The transition to 3D DRAM is gaining momentum, with manufacturers focusing on advanced packaging technologies to enhance performance and efficiency [6][18] - **Market Dynamics**: The DRAM market is witnessing a reshaping of niche market dynamics, with a notable shift towards 3D DRAM production as manufacturers pivot to DDR5 and HBM technologies [16][19] - **Emerging Applications**: The demand for NOR Flash is increasing due to growth in IoT, automotive electronics, and 5G applications, with specific requirements for capacity, lifespan, and reliability [25][26] - **Investment in AI Infrastructure**: Major cloud service providers are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, with companies like Meta, Google, and Alibaba planning substantial investments [22][23] Companies to Watch - **Key Companies**: Notable companies in the storage IC design and module sectors include Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, Dongxin Technology, and others involved in various aspects of the semiconductor storage industry [28] Risks and Considerations - **Supply Chain Risks**: Potential disruptions in supply chains due to international policy changes could impact pricing and market conditions. Additionally, if the AI industry does not develop as expected, overall growth may be constrained [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 110.00 RMB [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.256 billion RMB in Q1 2025, showing a year-over-year decline of 4.41% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -152 million RMB, down 139.52% year-over-year and down 160.58% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The growth in overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses has been robust, with Lexar brand revenue increasing by 20.73% year-over-year and Zilia's revenue growing by 45.08% year-over-year [2][3]. - The report anticipates a price rebound in DRAM/NAND products in Q2 2025, driven by inventory digestion and increased stocking willingness from downstream customers [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.256 billion RMB, with a year-over-year decline of 4.41% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -152 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 139.52% [1][2]. - The gross margin was reported at 10.35%, down 14.04 percentage points year-over-year, but the decline in margin has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2]. Growth Drivers - The overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses showed strong growth, with Lexar's revenue increasing by 20.73% and Zilia's revenue increasing by 45.08% year-over-year. The enterprise storage product combination "eSSD+RDIMM" achieved over 200% year-over-year revenue growth [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and customer base, particularly in the high-end product segment [2][3]. 2025 Outlook - The report expects a price rebound in consumer storage products starting in Q2 2025, as major manufacturers like Micron have announced price increases. The company’s self-developed UFS 4.1 controller chip has successfully entered mass production, which will support new product launches [3]. - The integration of Zilia with Yuan Cheng Suzhou has improved operational efficiency and expanded the company's reach into South American markets [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 22.756 billion RMB, 26.700 billion RMB, and 29.568 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [4][6]. - The report projects a net profit of 668.52 million RMB for 2025, with an expected EPS of 1.61 RMB [6][4].