Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Pre - holiday inventory accumulation falling short of expectations, the late Spring Festival and other supply - demand mismatch factors led to an unexpected increase in egg spot prices during the pre - holiday stocking period. The near - term contracts on the futures market followed the increase rationally. However, after the egg - farming industry returned to profitability, the market's inventory accumulation sentiment has clearly emerged. It is highly likely that the supply - side pressure will be postponed, which may keep the egg prices under pressure in the first half of the year after the Spring Festival. Considering the limited decline in the current inventory and the uncertainty of future capacity reduction, under the assumption of low and relatively stable cost, the post - holiday near - term contracts are more likely to be anchored to the cost. For the far - end contracts, due to the expectation of recovery in chicken replenishment, it is difficult to achieve excess profits. Currently, the premiums of each futures contract are still relatively high. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [2][17]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Pre - holiday Stocking Period: Spot Prices Rose More than Expected - Since New Year's Day, stimulated by pre - holiday stocking sentiment, egg spot prices have been rising continuously, with the increase approaching that of the peak season in the first half of September. As of late January, the price in Hebei Guantao, an external - sales production area, was above 3.6 yuan per catty, a nearly 30% increase from the low point at the beginning of the month. In Henan, an internal - sales production area, the spot price has exceeded 4 yuan per catty. As a result, the egg - farming industry returned to profitability after 3 months [4]. - The abnormal rise in egg prices was driven by several factors: a. The production capacity decreased month - on - month. The inventory scale peaked and declined in September last year. The number of newly - hatched chickens since July last year decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of slaughtered laying hens increased significantly, and the average age of hens dropped below 490 days. The proportion of small eggs dropped to 13.81%, significantly lower than the peak of 18.86% last year, while the proportion of large eggs rose to 42.81% [5]. b. The late Spring Festival led to a delay in demand, and the hoarding sentiment boosted the price increase. Due to the late Spring Festival and insufficient early - stage inventory accumulation, there was an unexpected price increase, and local hoarding speculation further amplified the short - term increase. c. The continuously strong prices of substitutes such as vegetables and pork also supported the rise in egg prices. Since January, short - sellers in the futures market have covered their positions to repair the basis, and the near - term contracts have been particularly strong, but still more restrained compared to the spot market [5]. 3.2 Market Inventory Accumulation Sentiment Emerged - The unexpected price increase brought the egg - farming industry back to the profit range. The current high spot valuation and high premium of the far - end futures contracts on the market reflect the market sentiment. However, the inventory is still high and the age structure of hens is young, and there is still uncertainty in the supply - side rhythm. If the market's optimistic expectations are over - advanced, the expected capacity reduction may slow down or even stop. Currently, signs of inventory accumulation sentiment have emerged [10]. - a. The age of slaughtered hens has risen counter - seasonally from 484 days to 490 days, and the number of slaughtered hens has decreased, indicating an increase in the sentiment of delaying hen slaughter. Considering the young age structure of hens, molting during the festival and a new peak in egg - laying after the festival are common practices, which will increase the post - festival supply pressure [10]. b. The sentiment of replenishing chicken chicks and young hens has emerged. The prices of chicken chicks and egg - laying chicks have risen for 4 consecutive weeks. In December, the number of replenished chickens stopped falling and increased. Xiaoming Co., Ltd.'s chicken chick sales and prices increased by 8.3% and 19.6% respectively in December, and the utilization rate of breeding eggs at sample points has risen from 57% at the beginning of the year to 68% currently, indicating that the market's replenishment sentiment is on the rise [13]. 3.3 Post - festival and Longer - term Egg Prices will be Anchored to the Cost - The market is closely watching the changes in inventory. However, inventory changes are uncertain and will be dynamically adjusted based on current and future expected profits. As long as there is an expectation of profit, the reduced production capacity can be quickly replenished through increased replenishment or delayed hen slaughter. The key factor is the change in the cost. As long as the cost remains at the current low level and there is a profit in expectation or reality, it is difficult to achieve future capacity reduction [16]. - In the short - term, although the spot price increased more than expected during the pre - holiday stocking period, during the festival, demand will disappear while supply remains the same, so inventory accumulation is inevitable. Except in extremely short - supply years, egg prices will almost always fall below the cost line. In the long - term, with the upcoming spring chick - replenishing season, considering the low cost, high expectations, and a 4 - 5 - month egg - laying period after hatching, it is not necessary or inevitable for the production capacity to continue to decline. Under the condition of low cost, it is difficult to achieve excess profits in the far - end contracts [16].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent surge in egg futures, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3085.00 yuan and closing at 3067.00 yuan, reflecting a 2.27% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Hualian Futures suggests that the main egg contract may continue to experience wide fluctuations within a range, supported by production costs and a reluctance to sell among producers, while market trading conditions improve [2]. - Jianxin Futures indicates that the near-month contract is showing slight strength due to the influence of spot prices, while the far-month contracts are experiencing some decline due to earlier expectations regarding inventory turning points [3]. - Green D&H Futures maintains a short-term bullish outlook on egg prices, noting that prices are currently operating within the range of feed costs to breeding costs, but warns of potential downward pressure in February due to a supply-demand imbalance [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Hualian Futures highlights that the ongoing losses in the industry and accelerated culling of older hens, combined with insufficient replenishment, may lead to a continued decline in the number of laying hens and new production [2]. - Jianxin Futures emphasizes that the near-month contracts are expected to remain in a bottom range unless there is an unexpected increase in the strength and duration of price rises in production and sales areas [3]. - Green D&H Futures points out that while the supply pressure has not been fully alleviated, the ongoing increase in chick replenishment may limit the potential for significant price increases in the short term [3].

卓创资讯白羽肉鸡行业资深分析师孙亚男 【导语】1月上旬河北粉壳鸡蛋价格在供需双重利好下，结束低位盘整开启强势反弹。当前蛋价短期趋 稳，但春节前需求尚未完全释放，中旬仍有上涨空间。不过随着后期库存释放及外销需求减弱，下旬蛋 价下跌风险将有所上升。 1月上旬河北粉蛋价格强势反弹 1月上旬河北粉壳鸡蛋价格结束两个月来的低位盘整状态，价格强势反弹。根据卓创数据监测显示，1 日-11日河北粉蛋均价由121元/箱上涨至138元/箱，上涨17元/箱，涨幅高达14.05%，涨势较为显著。12 日河北粉蛋价格暂歇上涨步伐，转入止涨走稳状态。在此背景下，市场各方普遍关注，后续蛋价能否延 续上涨态势，春节前价格高点又将定格在何种水平（注：河北粉蛋取馆陶、石家庄45斤箱装鸡蛋均 价）。 供应略减，需求好转，双重利好拉动蛋价上涨 由于11-12月份鸡蛋价格持续在底部徘徊，养殖单位多顺势出栏大日龄蛋鸡，加之新开产蛋鸡数量逐渐 下降，在产蛋鸡存栏量呈现高位回落态势。根据卓创资讯监测数据显示，2025年12月份河北在产蛋鸡存 栏量约为1.11亿只，环比减幅0.54%。存栏量略有下降，鸡蛋供应压力稍有缓解，加之业者对春节前行 情多有看涨预期， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - **Industry**: Eggs [1] - **Date**: November 24, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for eggs weakened continuously this week and then stabilized. The egg prices in the two major producing regions of Hubei and Hunan, which led the previous rebound, have been falling since last week until mid - week. The red eggs in the north were relatively balanced in supply and demand but also weakened under the influence of the powder eggs. The national market prices stabilized on Friday, and market sentiment improved to some extent. [8] - In December, the demand for eggs will gradually enter the peak season with the expectation of double - holiday stocking. The decline in the price of culled chickens indicates that the culling rhythm is progressing orderly. The downside of egg prices should not be overly underestimated, while the upside space depends on market digestion and sales. The trend is unclear, and egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, the main contract fluctuated at a low level this week without a clear direction. The 01 contract fell below 3200 points, close to historical lows, attracting some bottom - fishing funds. However, compared with the end of 2016 and 2019, the current spot price is lower. From the perspective of basis, although it is close to the absolute price low, there are risks in going long. The futures market is expected to bottom out and wait for the spot price to rebound. [8] - The longer the egg price remains low in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Today, the national egg prices were stable. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 0.75%. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the options market, focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts; in the spread market, conduct reverse spread rolling operations for near - and far - month spreads. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: The current egg - laying hen inventory has slightly declined but remains at a historically high level for the same period. As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of egg - laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared with October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: The momentum of replenishment continues to slow down. In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. From July to October 2025, the total replenishment was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 20, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The culling volume has fluctuated recently but has slightly increased overall compared with the previous period. [19] - **Culling Age**: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of hens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling speed. [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous low replenishment and high culling have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. Coupled with the increasing hoarding sentiment after the temperature drop, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With the subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the improved sentiment is expected to drive the market to build up inventory. The futures market has anticipated the price increase, but the long - positions are generally cautious due to the premium over the spot market, and the expectation of high supply still exists. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and investors are advised to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper pressure for short - selling opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: In October, the domestic egg supply and demand were loose. Due to high inventory, the demand during the "Double Festivals" was lower than expected, and continuous rainfall in the north after the festivals led to a sluggish market. Egg prices were weak in the first and middle of the month, but rebounded at the end of the month as the temperature dropped and the downstream market became more active. The breeding industry continued to suffer losses, and the culling of chickens accelerated, with the average chicken age dropping to 493 days. Looking forward to November, the supply of newly - laid eggs will decrease and continuous culling will cause the inventory of laying hens to peak and decline, but the overall supply is still large, which may limit the price increase. The demand side will be frequently stimulated by factors such as hoarding and stocking, so the egg prices are expected to fluctuate strongly until the end of the inventory - building season [11]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing chickens continued to be low. In October, the replenishment volume decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state, and the enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high. The price of old chickens has reached a multi - year low compared to the same period, and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens has turned negative. The average chicken age has further decreased to 493 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 90 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to last year's 1.287 billion. Based on the previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline gradually. It will remain flat in November and further decrease to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. Although the relative supply is decreasing, the absolute supply is still high [11]. - **Demand Side**: As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first building up inventory and then reducing it [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the upper pressure of the 01 - 06 contracts in the medium - term. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: In October, the domestic egg supply and demand were loose. Egg prices were weak in the first and middle of the month and rebounded at the end of the month. The prices of large - sized eggs in Heishan, Guantao, Huilongguan, and Dongguan all decreased to varying degrees. Looking forward to November, the egg prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spot market has stabilized with partial price increases, but the futures market has moved ahead, with the far - month contracts showing a slightly stronger trend, leading to a decline in the basis. The monthly spread shows a positive arbitrage trend [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high, and the absolute price of culled chickens and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens have reached new lows [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - laying Hen Replenishment**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing chickens continued to be low. In October, the replenishment volume decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high, the price of old chickens has reached a multi - year low compared to the same period, and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens has turned negative. The average chicken age has further decreased to 493 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 90 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to last year's 1.287 billion. Based on the previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline gradually. It will remain flat in November and further decrease to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. Although the relative supply is decreasing, the absolute supply is still high [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first building up inventory and then reducing it [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower compared to the same period last year and has decreased month - on - month. The profitability is at a relatively low seasonal level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, demand, etc. It points out that although egg demand has improved slightly and prices have rebounded, the overall situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price is still fluctuating at the bottom. The increase in egg prices in the short - term is mainly due to the acceleration of old hen culling and the promotion of "Double 11". The short - term bottom of egg prices is expected to rise, but the long - term price trend still depends on the balance between supply and demand [5][15][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price is expected to rise in the short - term, and the bottom is expected to be lifted [5]. - The decline of old hen prices has slowed down. The supply of the old hen market is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of powder chickens is at a relatively low level, which has a certain supporting effect on the overall chicken price, but some high - price red chicken areas still have a slight decline risk [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The national main producing areas' egg - laying hen culling volume in the week of November 06 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of November 06 was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [12]. - In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of November 06, the corn price was around 2236 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3094 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was around 2493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs [15]. - The egg price first fell and then rose this week, and the overall supply exceeded demand. The average egg price decreased week - on - week, so the breeding profit decreased. As of November 06, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 11" promotion, the sales volume in the sales areas increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7300 tons, a 4% decrease compared with last week [18]. - The production - link inventory decreased week - on - week, and the circulation - link inventory increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [18]. - The vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly this week [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled hens has increased and the previous supply pressure has been relieved, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the short - term capacity reduction speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited [19]. - For trading, it is recommended to wait and see in terms of unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Relevant data on egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen breeding, price differences, and basis are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical analysis and conclusions are given in the text [22][26][27][30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the egg market was in a seasonal off - season with weak demand and high supply. Although the price got short - term support from downstream stocking, the supply - side pressure remained, and the short - term upward space of the futures price was limited. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold a bearish view on the medium - to - long - term at high prices [7][8][9]. 3) Summaries According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review - **Futures Price**: In October, the main egg futures contract changed from 2511 to 2512. The lowest price dropped to 2880 yuan/500 kg, and then rebounded. As of October 31, the main JD2512 contract closed at 3146 yuan/500 kg, down 0.29% [5][13]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last month was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.1683% month - on - month; in the main selling areas, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.1371% month - on - month. In October, the egg market entered the seasonal off - season, with weak demand and high supply [7][17]. - **Old Hen Price**: The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas in October was 4.39 yuan/jin, down 0.0559% month - on - month. The price was under pressure at the beginning of the month and rebounded slightly in the second half of the month [22]. - **Chick Price**: The average price of commercial laying hen chicks in October was 2.75 yuan/chick, down 0.0678% month - on - month and 0.2318% year - on - year. The downstream demand was weak, and the price continued to be weak [25]. II. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national laying hen inventory was about 1.311 billion, down 0.15% month - on - month and up 8.8% year - on - year. The new production capacity decreased year - on - year due to low replenishment in June [31]. - **Chick Sales**: In October, the total chick sales were 35.88 million, down 5.08% month - on - month. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 40% - 50%. The weak demand was due to negative replenishment sentiment [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: In October, the total slaughter of old hens in sample points was 2.6675 million, up 8.69% month - on - month. The average slaughter age was 497 days, 2 days earlier than in September. The loss of the egg - laying industry led to accelerated culling [40]. - **Demand Side** - **Arrival of Trucks in Selling Areas**: In October, the arrival of trucks in Beijing increased by 2.86% month - on - month to 396 trucks, while in Guangdong, it decreased by 2.12% month - on - month to 2175 trucks [44]. - **Sales in Selling Areas**: In October, the total sales in selling areas were 28.09 thousand tons, down 1.65% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year [47]. - **Egg - Laying Industry Cost and Profit**: In October, the egg - laying cost was 3.43 yuan/jin, down 2.56% month - on - month, with a loss of 0.43 yuan/jin. The decrease was due to the decline in corn and soybean meal prices [51]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 31, the production - link inventory was 1.03 days, the same as at the end of September; the circulation - link inventory was 1.16 days, down 5.69% month - on - month [54]. III. Market Outlook - The egg price got short - term support from downstream stocking due to improved storage conditions, but the supply pressure remained, and the short - term upward space of the futures price was limited. Attention should be paid to the performance of the futures price around the 3200 resistance level [8][55]. IV. Operation Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Temporarily wait and see, and hold a bearish view on the medium - to - long - term at high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [9][56].

Agricultural Products - The CBOT soybean prices reached a six-month high due to market expectations of China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans, with 84% of soybeans and 72% of corn harvested as of now [1] - Domestic protein meal prices showed volatility and did not follow the upward trend of soybeans, with a slight decrease in the main contract [1] Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, hitting a four-week low, influenced by weak surrounding markets and a rising Malaysian ringgit [2] - Domestic oil prices showed mixed results, with soybean and rapeseed oil slightly increasing while palm oil experienced a small decline [2] - High oil inventory levels and relaxed supply conditions are contributing to a weak basis in the market [2] Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract showed a strong upward trend, with spot prices in various regions increasing, such as Heilongjiang at 12.32 CNY/kg, up 0.27 CNY/kg from the previous day [3] - The overall pig price stabilized in mid-October, supported by increased market activity and a tightening supply of larger pigs [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture indicated a decrease in pork imports and an increase in consumption, predicting a rebound in live pig and pork prices in Q4 [3] Eggs - Egg futures continued to rebound, with the main contract closing up 1.56% at 3134 CNY/500kg, supported by rising spot prices in major production areas [4] - The market shows optimistic expectations for future supply improvements, although there is still pressure from excess production capacity [4] Corn - The main corn futures contract opened lower and continued to decline, recovering the price gains from the previous week due to increased new grain supply [5][6] - Prices in the Northeast region adjusted slightly, with varying adjustments based on local supply and processing demand [5][6] - The market remains under pressure from new grain supplies, particularly in North China, where high-quality grain is favored [6]

Core Insights - The prices of live pigs and eggs have both declined significantly during the recent holiday season, with pig prices hitting a four-year low and egg prices reaching near multi-year lows [2] - Pig prices have started to rise again, potentially returning to the 6 yuan per kilogram range, while egg prices remain stagnant, struggling to break through the 3 yuan per kilogram mark [2][4] Group 1: Pig Market Dynamics - The recent increase in pig prices is driven by several factors, including seasonal demand due to colder weather and upcoming traditional food preparations in southern and northern China [4] - After experiencing a price drop, pig farmers are showing a tendency to buy back into the market, contributing to the price recovery [4] - The growth cycle of pigs and the second fattening phase provide more time for market adjustments compared to the shorter egg production cycle [6] Group 2: Egg Market Challenges - Despite a slight increase in egg prices, the overall market remains under pressure due to high production capacity and slow culling rates among egg-laying hens [6][8] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to have limited impact on egg sales, leading to a prolonged period of low demand post-festival [4][8] - The short production cycle of eggs means that any lack of downstream consumption quickly translates into price pressure, exacerbated by the presence of unsold inventory in cold storage [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including protein meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current supply - demand situation, cost factors, and future expectations of each product [3][5][8][11][14][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Condition**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly due to trade optimism and recent drought. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the East China basis at 01 - 110 remaining unchanged. The downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost unchanged week - on - week and at a high level in recent years year - on - year [3]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the undervaluation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian planting season trading, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, potential expansion of Brazilian planting area, and possible short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost of imported soybeans has maintained a weak and stable trend recently. The domestic soybean meal market has high - level提货. It is expected that the spot side may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's crushing profit. The soybean meal should be mainly operated in a range - bound manner, waiting for a driving factor to choose a direction [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the output decreased by 3.17% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to reach 753 million tons. The price of edible oils including palm oil is expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand. On Tuesday, the three major domestic oils were strong, with stable demand from importing countries, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia providing continuous positive factors [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be in a medium - term upward trend. With the current high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The sugar yield and sugar content in Brazil's central - southern region in August decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. The domestic sugar price is expected to continue to decline, and if Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the domestic sugar price may reach a new low [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The开机率 of the downstream textile industry has increased but is still lower than the same period in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is at a low level, and the US cotton has a high excellent rate and a normal harvest rate [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the consumption peak season approaching, the downstream开机率 is increasing, but the inventory is low and there is an expected increase in production in the long - term. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.07 yuan to 3.74 yuan/jin. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is stable [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply base is still large, and there is a large amount of cold - stored eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price may fall back. However, after the large - scale culling of laying hens, the supply pressure decreases. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the far - month contracts when there is a large increase in positions after a price decline [17]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.17 yuan to 13.19 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.13 yuan to 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand is average, and the slaughter volume is stable. The pig price is expected to continue to be weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The planned slaughter volume is large in September, but there are potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserves. The spot price may fluctuate in a narrow range. The futures price has fallen continuously, and it is not cost - effective to short further. Pay attention to the possibility of a rebound due to policies and consumption, and short - sell after the rebound. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [20].