1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and market trends of each product. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday night, the USDA's reduction in planting area continued to be bullish, with US soybeans closing higher. Brazilian soybean premiums slightly decreased, and soybean import costs remained stable. Rapeseed meal fell from its high, and soybean meal fluctuated with external costs. Domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable over the weekend, with spot prices rising slightly by 10 - 20 yuan. Last week, soybean meal trading was weak, but提货 was good, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and 2.4043 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal or slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian premiums have been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is short - term bullish for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the bullish EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier of soybeans from September to January, soybean import costs are maintaining a stable and slightly rising trend, but the continuous upward momentum of soybean import costs is questionable under the background of global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Soybean import costs have recently maintained a stable and slightly rising trend, and the domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal supply surplus situation. It is expected that the spot end may start to destock in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month, and exports in the first 15 days are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. In July 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.379 billion pounds, slightly lower than the market expectation of 1.38 billion pounds and higher than the 1.366 billion pounds in June. The Indonesian president said that the government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. Last Friday, China's three major oils rose significantly. Earlier, the postponement of Indonesia's B50 policy, rumors of poor Indonesian palm oil exports, and rapeseed purchase information suppressed prices, but at the end of the week, the Indonesian president's statement about confiscating illegal plantations raised supply concerns. Stable demand from importing countries and low inventories in Southeast Asia provide continuous bullish factors. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas are low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supports the center of the oil market. For palm oil, if importing countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a moderate level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventories, supporting strong producer quotes. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. Currently, the information about the confiscation of Indonesian plantations continues to drive up prices, but the valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5,664 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,940 - 6,010 yuan/ton, Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 276 yuan/ton. According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), 50.217 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of July, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; sugar production was 3.614 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease; the sugar - to - cane ratio was 54.1%, compared with 50.32% in the same period of the previous season; the sugar yield per ton of sugarcane (ATR) decreased by 5.21% year - on - year to 139.62 kg/ton. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 80 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons or 7.26% from the previous week [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the international market, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there are also expectations of increased production in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India in the new season. Therefore, the possibility of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low. In the domestic market, domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The futures price valuation is still high, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) for 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton at the pick - up price - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 880 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; and the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The USDA report was more bullish than expected, driving up both domestic and international cotton prices. Also, China and the US have continued to suspend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days, which is bullish for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, the operating rate has remained at a historically low level, and the speed of cotton destocking has slowed down. Overall, cotton prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices in China mainly rose over the weekend. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.14 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. The supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium and small - sized eggs, and the proportion of large - sized eggs is increasing. Cold - stored eggs are also flowing into the market. Currently, it is the peak season, and the consumption of low - priced eggs has improved. It is expected that egg prices will stabilize and then rise slightly this week [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The number of newly - hatched laying hens continues to increase, and the number of culled hens is limited, resulting in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices have performed weaker than expected during the peak season, and funds have taken the opportunity to create a premium in the futures market, especially for near - month contracts. However, as the expectation of a spot price rebound gathers again, combined with the volatility risk brought by high positions at low prices, the futures market may start to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, and the focus will still be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices in China mainly fell slightly over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 13.68 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.47 yuan/kg. Demand has been average, and the number of pigs sold by individual farmers and free - range groups has increased, leading to an increase in supply. However, leading enterprises have reduced their sales volume, and the confrontation sentiment on the supply side has intensified. Pig prices are expected to be stable today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The previous continuous release of pressure and the bottom - supporting sentiment have led to a temporary stabilization of the spot market. The futures market has generally risen and then fallen under the influence of news. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. Under the expectation of both increasing supply and demand, the spread between fat and standard pigs and whether farmers will hold back pigs at that time will be crucial. The market may fall into range - bound oscillations. In the short term, focus on buying at low prices; in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure; and for far - month contracts, adopt a reverse - spread strategy [20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg futures market experienced intensified long - short battles last week. High egg - laying hen存栏 and adverse weather conditions put significant pressure on egg prices, but an increase in the number of culled chickens and rising procurement demand for cold - storage eggs provided support. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate. With the boost of the consumption peak season in the third quarter, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [8][59]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1. Trend Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of egg futures, JD2508, fluctuated last week. As of last Friday, it closed at 3,582 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a total trading volume of 125,885 lots, an open interest of 184,136 lots, and a weekly increase of 1.1% [5][12]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 2.70 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25%; in the main consuming areas, it was 2.76 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The price in the main producing areas first declined and then stabilized, while that in the main consuming areas showed a weakening trend [7][16]. - **Chick Price**: The chick price was generally weak last week. The average price of commercial - generation chicks in key national regions was 3.88 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.08%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 80% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: The price of old hens fluctuated strongly last week. The average price of old hens in representative markets in key producing areas was 4.65 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.65% [26]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Egg - laying Hen存栏**: As of June, the national egg - laying hen存栏 was about 1.27 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The supply was abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand would be further intensified [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in representative markets in the main producing areas decreased by 0.63% week - on - week and 17.52% year - on - year. It first weakened and then increased [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens last week was 529,200, a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, and the slaughter volume decreased with a slightly earlier slaughter age [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Arrival Volume in Consuming Areas**: As of last Thursday, the arrival volume in the Beijing market increased by 2.06% week - on - week, while that in the Guangdong market decreased by 20.03% week - on - week. The overall downstream consumption demand was average [45]. - **Sales Volume in Consuming Areas**: The egg sales volume last week was 5,928.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.56% [49]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in the production link last week was 1.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.52 days, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%. The overall inventory increased slightly [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The egg - laying hen breeding cost last week was 3.55 yuan per catty, remaining flat week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.85 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 25.00%. The egg - laying hen breeding loss further expanded [57]. 3.3. Market Outlook The egg futures market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. With the boost of the third - quarter consumption peak season, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [59]. 3.4. Operation Strategy Due to the short - term market uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. Continuously monitor the signals of capacity reduction and demand recovery in July [10][60].

Group 1 - The core issue for egg producers this year is the continued low prices of eggs, which have persisted since last year, with prices dropping below 3 yuan per jin in May [2] - The main reason for the weak egg prices is the significant supply pressure, which has been exacerbated by high production levels in previous years [2][4] - In June, there are signs that supply pressure may be easing due to reduced production as farmers are less inclined to extend the lifespan of their hens and new flock additions are declining [4] Group 2 - The number of egg-laying hens was approximately 1.275 billion in May, with expectations of a decrease in June [4] - Seasonal factors such as rising temperatures and increased rainfall are contributing to a decline in egg production rates, which may help alleviate supply pressure [4] - Despite the easing supply pressure, egg prices remain under significant pressure due to a simultaneous decline in demand, which is expected to be more pronounced than the reduction in supply [4][5] Group 3 - Consumer demand for eggs typically experiences seasonal fluctuations, and with rising temperatures, overall meat and egg consumption is declining [5] - The upcoming school holidays are leading to reduced stocking by food service providers, further weakening demand [5] - Distributors are also reducing their purchase volumes due to increased difficulty in preserving eggs, resulting in a dual weakness in demand that could exacerbate downward pressure on prices [7] Group 4 - The southern regions are expected to face the rainy season, which may intensify the selling pressure on eggs and potentially lead to new price lows [7] - However, the downward price movement may be limited due to stable corn prices, which support production costs [7] - The overall outlook for the livestock industry remains challenging, with significant pressures not only on eggs but also on pork production [7]