开栏语：一场规模高达50万亿的存款迁徙正蓄势待发。站在财富配置的历史拐点，如何审视这波天量资金 的洪流涌向？凭借净值化运作的专业禀赋，公募行业正以"固收+"为盾、FOF为矛，站上潮头，成为金融深 化改革的时代注脚。深度探究行业变化，智通财经推出《迎接50万亿存款迁徙》专题，以专业视角观察、 见证公募的发力，为投资者绘制新的财富蓝图。 智通财经2月27日讯（记者 闫军）固收+基金在2026年增量可期，已经成为公募基金业务在ETF之外，最大的共识。 一是50万亿高息存款到期的居民财富迁徙，二是险资加大投资、银行资金转移等机构增量资金涌入，两大历史机遇之 下，公募基金行业正达成共识：3万亿或仅是起点，2026年"固收+"业务的争夺战已然全面打响。 3万亿元，固收+最新规模达历史峰值 中金公司研报数据显示，截至2025年末，全市场2292只"固收+"基金规模合计达3万亿元，超过2022年2.7万亿元的历史 峰值，创下新高。环比增长9%，较去年同期增长56%。（固收+统计口径：一级债基、二级债基、可转债、偏债混 合、权益仓位不超过4成的灵活配置基金、偏债混合型FOF）。 | 排 | | | 2021-2025年基金公司 ...

[Table_Author] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 高息存款到期高点或已过 glmszqdatemark 推荐 维持评级 分析师 王先爽 执业证书： S0590525120014 邮箱： wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn 分析师 文雪阳 执业证书： S0590526010002 邮箱： wenxueyang@glms.com.cn 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 银行 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 流动性系列之二 价格是一种货币（流动性）现象，资本市场也不例外。资本市场资金来源主要源 自机构、居民、海外和政策，其中机构资金最终来自居民，所以每到市场情绪高 涨时候，牛市逻辑中往往存在对居民存款迁徙资本市场的讨论和期待。作为研究 者，我们需要厘清何为现实，何为叙事。我们团队开创了基于上市银行报表进行 存贷款到期规模测算的框架。本篇报告将对存款到期现实和叙事进行进一步探讨。 现实一：我国居民和单位一直有大量存款。截至 2025 年 12 月，我国居民和单位 总存款 ...

Group 1: International and Domestic Trends - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% in March 2025, but signals of potential rate cuts were released by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 23, leading to a 91.3% market bet on a September rate cut [1][2] - The international trend of rate cuts has impacted the Chinese financial market, with household deposits increasing by 10.77 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, but a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a shift of funds towards wealth management and funds [1][3] Group 2: Effects of Rate Cuts on Capital Flow - Following three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, foreign institutions increased their holdings of Chinese bonds by over 300 billion yuan in Q4 2024, while enterprises in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone saw a 45% year-on-year increase in cross-border purchases of high-yield foreign deposits [3] - In response to the Fed's rate cuts, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points in September 2024 and again in May 2025, resulting in a historical low average interest rate of 3.68% for new corporate loans in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Structural Changes in Domestic Deposits - The acceleration of fund migration is evident as non-bank institution deposits surged by 2.14 trillion yuan, while the interest rates on three-year large deposits fell from 2.8% in 2023 to 1.8%-2.2% in 2025, contrasting with an average return of 4.5% for balanced stock and bond funds during the same period [3] Group 4: New Regulations and Their Implications - The new regulation allows cash withdrawals of over 50,000 yuan without mandatory registration of the source or purpose, addressing previous concerns over excessive scrutiny [4] - Financial institutions must still adhere to the "Know Your Customer" principle, with enhanced scrutiny for high-risk clients, while technology is being utilized to streamline processes and protect customer privacy [4][5] Group 5: Economic and Real Estate Impacts - The central bank's liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan through a one-year MLF operation aims to alleviate market pressure and direct more funds into the real economy [6] - The rental market is expected to grow due to new housing rental regulations, which may divert some funds from home purchases and ease pressure on the housing market [7] Group 6: Expert Analysis on Regulatory Changes - The new regulations do not relax anti-money laundering efforts but instead focus resources on higher-risk areas, ensuring that banks maintain rigorous checks on clients from high-risk regions [9] - Innovations in local policies, such as the introduction of combination products by banks, aim to enhance customer returns while maintaining compliance with new regulations [12]