国金证券指出，从近期政策表态、完成经济增长目标的压力、四季度的经济承受力来看，年内出台增量 政策的必要性偏低。未来一段时间重点或将是存量政策的优化，通过调整存量政策的形式、节奏和用 途，支撑经济增长。深化改革将成为政策的重心，这也是未来"十五五"规划的重要政策方向，通过改革 提高全要素增长率，打开经济潜在增长空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optimization of existing policies will be a key focus in the near future, supporting economic growth through adjustments in the form, rhythm, and use of these policies [2][17]. Policy Outlook - The newly developed policy financial tools were launched at the end of September, raising market interest in whether additional incremental policies will be introduced, potentially triggering a shift in market style [4]. - Key observations from recent government meetings indicate that there is no immediate demand for aggressive policy adjustments, with a focus on long-term goals rather than short-term economic stimulation [4][7]. - The People's Daily published a series of articles emphasizing the importance of viewing the economic situation holistically, acknowledging the uneven pace of industrial transformation and the need to avoid overreacting to negative sentiments from specific sectors [5][6]. Economic Growth Targets - Achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% in the fourth quarter is deemed feasible, reducing the necessity for new incremental policies [8]. - The current economic environment allows for a buffer, as the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, meaning only a 4.6% growth rate is needed in the fourth quarter to meet the target [8][9]. Local Government Financial Pressure - Local government financial pressures have eased compared to last year, with a shift in focus towards debt resolution rather than aggressive infrastructure investment, which diminishes the demand for central government funding [9]. Consumer and Export Dynamics - Despite high base pressures on consumption and exports, internal economic resilience remains strong, suggesting that the need for new incremental policies is low [11]. - Recent data indicates that consumer spending during the National Day holiday showed a year-on-year increase, with service consumption driving growth [11]. - Export resilience is noted, with China's share in global exports increasing, despite challenges from high base effects in the previous year [13]. Policy Adjustments - Future policy focus will be on optimizing existing measures rather than introducing new ones, with changes in monetary policy expected to be more gradual [14][18]. - Fiscal policy will see adjustments in the timing of local government debt issuance and the acceleration of new policy financial tools to support project capital [19]. - Consumer support policies are shifting from product subsidies to service and livelihood support, reflecting a long-term strategy to boost domestic demand [20][21]. Reform Focus - Current policy emphasis is on deepening reforms, including the establishment of a unified market and market-oriented reforms for factors of production, which are expected to enhance overall economic growth potential [22].

Economic Policy Insights - Recent policy discussions indicate that there is no strong demand for additional stimulus measures, as highlighted in the September 22 press conference and the September 26 monetary policy meeting[2][4]. - The pressure to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% in Q4 is relatively low, with only a 4.6% growth needed to meet this target[6][11]. - Despite high base pressures on consumption and exports, the internal economic resilience suggests that the necessity for new policies remains low[11][16]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Adjustments - The focus will likely shift towards optimizing existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with adjustments in the form, rhythm, and purpose of current policies to support economic growth[17][18]. - Local government fiscal pressures have eased, with special bonds issued reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the initial 800 billion yuan target, reducing the need for central government funding[7][11]. - The new policy financial tools launched at the end of September align with market expectations, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics if unexpected stimulus measures are introduced[4][19]. Consumption and Economic Growth - Consumer spending is expected to support GDP growth despite challenges, with service consumption projected to grow by 7.4% in 2024, compared to a 3.6% increase in goods consumption[11][12]. - The recent National Day holiday saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in daily sales revenue across the consumption sector, indicating ongoing consumer resilience[11][12]. Reform and Long-term Strategy - Current policy focus is on deepening reforms rather than immediate economic stimulus, with significant reforms in market unification and fiscal systems underway[21][22]. - The emphasis on long-term goals over short-term targets suggests a strategic shift in policy direction, aiming to enhance overall growth rates and unlock potential economic growth spaces[22].