Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a strong trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make rebounds rather than continue to short. The macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened. [2][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3134 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.771%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 48,275 tons, a net increase of 10,356 tons. The main contract's open interest was 882,576 lots, a net decrease of 89,702 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3327 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.757%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 704,586 lots, a net decrease of 80,806 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy View - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral overall performance. The production of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand slightly declined, and the inventory only slightly decreased. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.88% (+7.00). The open interest changed by - 14,304 lots to 376,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 930,100 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.41%. [4] Strategy View - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. The shipment from Australia decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment from Brazil increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries slightly declined. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 234,680 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance increased significantly, and the number of blast furnaces that could be restarted in a short time was low. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to the lowest level in the same period in the past three years, with the proportion of profitable steel mills at 35%. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was slightly consumed. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 1st, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 2.00% at 5724 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.41% at 5466 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][9] Strategy View - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak, and the ferroalloy is also affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on the market sentiment is still worth looking forward to. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make rebounds. [10][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted open interest increased by 1079 lots to 382,530 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 205 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 145 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.27% (+1280). The weighted open interest increased by 12,372 lots to 273,242 lots. [13][15] Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The weekly output continued to decline, and the marginal decline slowed down. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the demand for silicone was stable, and the export decreased. The cost support was stable. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the production capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the main contract is at a high premium. [14][17] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1036 yuan/ton, down 1.61% (-17). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1120 yuan, up 30 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million boxes, a decrease of 941,000 boxes (-1.49%). The soda ash main contract closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-1). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1176 yuan, up 24 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (-1.49%). [19][21] Strategy View - For glass, the supply decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines, and the market sentiment briefly improved, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market was still weak. The industry is still in the bottom - finding stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. For soda ash, the industry's operating load slightly increased, the inventory slightly decreased, and the price remained stable. It is recommended to be bearish before the demand significantly improves. [20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are facing complex event-driven factors during the holiday. OPEC+ may increase production, and the US government shutdown issue and non - farm data may impact demand expectations. Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in November. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - For fuel oil, recent drone attacks in Ukraine and seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery feed demand may support prices. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is advised [2]. - In the case of asphalt, the planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - Regarding polyester, pay attention to new capacity scales and release rhythms, as well as the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" season and overseas orders. Anti - dumping investigations may change the logistics of some suppliers [2][3]. - For rubber, adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and cost - end price fluctuations [3]. - In the methanol market, the focus is on the start - up of Iranian plants. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended to control risks [6]. - For polyolefins, although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand, and prices may fluctuate with oil prices. Light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - PVC is restricted by high inventory, and the 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices dropped significantly. OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5. Excessive production increase will be bearish for prices. The US government shutdown and non - farm data may impact demand. Saudi Arabia may raise November prices for Asian buyers. Oil prices are volatile, and light - position participation is advised [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly on Monday. Drone attacks and refinery maintenance may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery demand may support prices. Prices may follow oil price fluctuations, and light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract rose on Monday. The planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose slightly. Pay attention to new capacity and demand. Anti - dumping investigations may change supplier logistics [2][3]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Monday. Adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Pay attention to tariff policies and cost - end prices [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by the start - up of Iranian plants and port demand. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended [6]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices are affected by profit and demand. Although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are restricted by high inventory. The 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ may approve a new round of crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5 to regain market share [13]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week, while distillate inventories may decline. API and EIA will release inventory reports [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][23][24][26][27][28][29] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [30][32][36][39][42][43] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including historical data [45][47][50][53][57][59] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc., including historical data [61][66][67][68] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [71] 4. Research Team Members - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives research [78]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with achievements in research and media contributions [80]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81]