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中信期货晨报:国内商品期货大面积飘绿,股指期货普遍下跌-20250919
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].
文字早评2025/09/19星期五:宏观金融类-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:52
文字早评 2025/09/19 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部回应 Tiktok 问题:绝不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价寻求达成任何协 议; 2、英伟达宣布 50 亿美元入股英特尔。在数据中心领域,英特尔将为英伟达定制 x86 CPU,由英伟达将 其集成至人工智能基础设施平台并投放市场; 3、电影《731》今天在全球上映,单日票房突破 3 亿,刷新中国影史纪录; 4、世运电路:"芯创智载"新一代 PCB 产品预计 2026 年中投产 未来可能供货特斯拉; 期指基差比例: IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.24%/-0.49%/-1.11%/-1.78%; IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.39%/-1.19%/-2.98%/-5.28%; IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.29%/-1.42%/-3.52%/-6.37%; IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.07%/-0.04%/-0.01%/-0.01%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后,AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧,资金高低切换,快速轮动,市场风险偏好有所 降低。叠加市场成交量的萎缩,短期指数面临一定的调 ...
各板块市场流动性:2025.9.12成交持仓数据有变动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 04:47
Summary of Market Transactions on September 12, 2025 Core Insights - The overall market transactions showed a mixed performance across different sectors, with significant variations in both transaction volumes and holding amounts [1]. Group 1: Stock Index Sector - Stock index sector transactions amounted to 860.73 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15.38% compared to the previous period [1]. - The holding amount in this sector was 1381.94 billion, down by 1.89% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio stood at 61.92% [1]. Group 2: Government Bonds Sector - Government bonds transactions totaled 458.80 billion, a decline of 20.23% [1]. - The holding amount reached 723.76 billion, decreasing by 1.75% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 64.11% [1]. Group 3: Base Metals Sector - Base metals transactions were recorded at 358.52 billion, an increase of 27.67% [1]. - The holding amount in this sector was 523.79 billion, up by 3.58% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 74.07% [1]. Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals transactions amounted to 477.79 billion, showing a significant increase of 34.69% [1]. - The holding amount was 504.51 billion, with a slight increase of 2.04% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 131.45% [1]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals Sector - Energy and chemicals transactions reached 389.62 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.51% [1]. - The holding amount was 446.53 billion, with a marginal increase of 0.44% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 67.68% [1]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Agricultural products transactions totaled 278.19 billion, down by 4.69% [1]. - The holding amount was 553.24 billion, showing a negligible change of 0.02% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 42.87% [1]. Group 7: Black Building Materials Sector - Black building materials transactions amounted to 283.25 billion, an increase of 5.40% [1]. - The holding amount was 372.92 billion, down by 1.70% [1]. - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 77.39% [1].
各板块市场流动性:2025.9.12成交持仓数据及变动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 04:47
Summary of Market Transactions and Positions Core Insights - The overall market transactions across various sectors showed a mixed performance, with significant fluctuations in both transaction volumes and positions compared to previous periods [1]. Sector-wise Summary - **Stock Index Sector**: - Transaction volume reached 860.73 billion, down by 15.38% from the previous period - Position amount was 1,381.94 billion, down by 1.89% - Transaction-to-position ratio stood at 61.92% [1] - **Government Bonds Sector**: - Transaction volume was 458.80 billion, down by 20.23% - Position amount was 723.76 billion, down by 1.75% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 64.11% [1] - **Base Metals Sector**: - Transaction volume increased to 358.52 billion, up by 27.67% - Position amount was 523.79 billion, up by 3.58% - Transaction-to-position ratio reached 74.07% [1] - **Precious Metals Sector**: - Transaction volume surged to 477.79 billion, up by 34.69% - Position amount was 504.51 billion, up by 2.04% - Transaction-to-position ratio was notably high at 131.45% [1] - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: - Transaction volume was 389.62 billion, up by 7.51% - Position amount was 446.53 billion, up by 0.44% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 67.68% [1] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: - Transaction volume decreased to 278.19 billion, down by 4.69% - Position amount was 553.24 billion, up by 0.02% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 42.87% [1] - **Black Building Materials Sector**: - Transaction volume increased to 283.25 billion, up by 5.40% - Position amount was 372.92 billion, down by 1.70% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 77.39% [1]
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货多数下跌,新能源材料跌幅居前-20250904
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]
商品日报(9月1日):贵金属显著走高 黑色建材全线回落
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 09:45
转自:新华财经 新华财经北京9月1日电(郭洲洋、吴郑思)国内商品期货市场9月1日涨跌互现,其中多晶硅主力合约涨超6%;沪银主力合约涨超4%;烧碱、沪金主力合约 涨超2%;沪镍、集运欧线、不锈钢、沥青主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种中,焦炭、焦煤、玻璃主力合约跌超3%;碳酸锂、铁矿石、纯碱主力合约跌超2%; 螺纹钢、棉花、热卷、苯乙烯、红枣主力合约跌超1%。 截至1日下午收盘,中证商品期货价格指数收报1431.88点,较前一交易日上涨1.16点,涨幅0.08%;中证商品期货指数收报1977.93点,较前一交易日上涨 1.61点,涨幅0.08%。 相比之下,贵金属上涨受到的基本面支撑更为稳固。在海外现货银价突破40美元/盎司关口并屡创十四年新高的驱动下,沪银早盘时段便大幅拉涨,终盘收 高4.13%,盘中创下上市以来新高至9808元/千克。国际市场现货金价进一步升至3480美元/盎司上方,沪金也再次升破800元/克关口。分析来看,美联 储本月降息预期在近期不断得到强化:不仅鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上暗示将降息,上周五7月PCE指数也基本符合预期,加上美联储多位官员表态或暗示 支持9月降息,这都为贵金属突破夏季波动区间并进一 ...
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货涨跌互现,股指板块集体飘红-20250829
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - **Asset Views**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **PTA**: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Propylene**: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Caustic Soda and Oils**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Pigs**: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Pulp**: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Sugar**: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Logs**: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货大面积飘绿,股指板块普遍下跌-20250828
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:02
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘绿,股指板块普遍下跌 ——中信期货晨报20250828 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 221/221/221 181/181/181 基 础 色 辅 助 色 228/210/172 0/0/0 210/10/16 87/87/87 227/82/4 | 金融资政治意体 | | | | | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 日度涨跌幅 周皮涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | 品种 | 现价 | | | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | 日庚涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 | ...
市场流动性:2025.8.1多板块成交持仓有变动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 07:21
Summary of Market Transactions and Positions as of August 1, 2025 Core Insights - The report provides a detailed overview of transaction volumes and positions across various market sectors, indicating significant changes in trading activity compared to previous periods [1]. Group 1: Stock Index Sector - Stock index transactions amounted to 550.37 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 26.82% from the previous period [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 1103.066 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.12% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio stood at 49.35% [1] Group 2: Government Bonds Sector - Government bond transactions totaled 382.529 billion yuan, down by 7.03% [1] - The holding amount for government bonds was 865.329 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.25% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was recorded at 44.77% [1] Group 3: Base Metals Sector - Base metals transactions reached 449.204 billion yuan, a significant drop of 25.58% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 482.903 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.72% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 107.44% [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals transactions were 278.766 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial decline of 36.55% [1] - The holding amount for precious metals was 438.786 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.28% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 82.47% [1] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals Sector - Energy and chemicals transactions totaled 447.496 billion yuan, down by 12.28% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 414.450 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.19% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 93.58% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Agricultural products transactions amounted to 320.812 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.97% [1] - The holding amount for agricultural products was 571.980 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.67% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 49.16% [1] Group 7: Black Building Materials Sector - Black building materials transactions reached 495.117 billion yuan, down by 9.48% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 372.928 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.44% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 125.45% [1]
特朗普签令!新“对等关税” 税率自10%至41%不等!期市多品种回调,预期变了?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-01 02:10
8月1日即将生效,美国关税政策迎来密集进展! 白宫在声明中指出,此次加税是"为应对加拿大持续的不作为和报复行为",并称总统"认定有必要以提 高税率的方式,有效应对当前的紧急局势"。 此外,期货日报记者了解到,美东时间7月31日,特朗普宣布,美国与墨西哥的关税协议将延长90天, 即墨西哥将继续支付25%的芬太尼关税、25%的汽车关税以及50%的钢铁、铝和铜关税。 这意味着现行的关税状况将继续维持。来自墨西哥的商品将被征收25%的关税,除非这些商品符合特朗 普在第一任期内签署的《美墨加贸易协定》(USMCA)。在符合该协议的情况下,商品将不被征税, 某些行业的特殊关税除外。 特朗普实施"互惠关税"合法性遭美联邦法院质疑。据央视新闻消息,当地时间7月31日,美国联邦上诉 法院多名法官对特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)实施"互惠关税"的合法性提出怀,认为 其逾越国会授权,未能证明贸易逆差构成"国家紧急状态"。 该案由多州和企业提起诉讼,法院此前已裁定特朗普越权。案件料将上诉至最高法院。 据央视新闻消息,当地时间7月31日,美国总统特朗普签署行政令,确定了对多个国家和地区征收的"对 等关税"税率,具体税率 ...