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20260127申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20260127
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:48
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. The fundamentals currently focus on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost end. Overall, the current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6974, 6935, and 6962 respectively, with increases of 88, 70, and 75 and涨幅 of 1.28%, 1.02%, and 1.09% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6716, 6737, and 6778 respectively, with increases of 71, 81, and 90 and涨幅 of 1.07%, 1.22%, and 1.35% respectively [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL January, May, and September contracts were 137, 611978, and 42216 respectively, and the open interests were 187, 515013, and 69905 respectively, with open interest changes of 35, -4043, and 4941 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 468, 524463, and 40252 respectively, and the open interests were 2132, 521131, and 106892 respectively, with open interest changes of 134, 22199, and 7638 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 39, -27, and -12 respectively, compared to the previous values of 21, -22, and 1. For PP, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -21, -41, and 62 respectively, compared to the previous values of -11, -32, and 43 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2346 yuan/ton, 9350 yuan/ton, 631 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous values of 2298 yuan/ton, 6175 yuan/ton, 612 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6460 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous ranges of 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 (8100 - 8250), and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous ranges of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] News - On Monday (January 26), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.63 per barrel, down $0.44 or 0.72% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.32 - $61.71. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.59 per barrel, down $0.29 or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.29 - $66.54 [2]
20260122申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20260122
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-01-22 03:21
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The polyolefin futures closed with a negative line and rebounded at night. Sinopec and PetroChina kept the prices of linear LL and drawn PP stable. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the macro - to - commodity transmission has increased. The rebound of international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost end. However, the short - term shock of crude oil after the rebound has an impact on chemicals. Polyolefin may experience short - term shocks after continuous rebounds [2] Group 3: Futures Market Summary Price and Volume - For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6720, 6666, and 6694 respectively, with price increases of 14, 26, and 30, and increases of 0.21%, 0.39%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volumes were 40, 374602, and 16431 respectively, and the open interests were 88, 504362, and 52481 respectively, with changes of 17, 9150, and 1432 respectively [2] - For drawn PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6493, 6485, and 6519 respectively, with price increases of 34, 24, and 27, and increases of 0.53%, 0.37%, and 0.42% respectively. The trading volumes were 211, 291242, and 17041 respectively, and the open interests were 644, 468323, and 85636 respectively, with changes of 58, 2082, and - 349 respectively [2] Spread - For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 54, - 28, and - 26 respectively, compared with the previous values of 66, - 24, and - 42 [2] - For drawn PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 8, - 34, and 26 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 2, - 31, and 33 [2] Group 4: Spot Market Summary Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products - The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2208 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, 602 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6270 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some slight changes compared to the previous values [2] Middle - stream Products - The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2] Group 5: News - On Wednesday (January 21), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.62 per barrel, up $0.26 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.22 - $60.89. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.24 per barrel, up $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.61 - $65.41 [2]
20260121申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20260121
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures closed in the red. For linear LL, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable; for drawn PP, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina also remained stable. Fundamentally, the market is currently focused on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices continues to support chemical products at the cost end. However, after the short - term rebound, crude oil has started to fluctuate, which has a certain impact on chemicals. After continuous rebounds, polyolefins may fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6706, 6640, and 6664 respectively, with price drops of -14, -27, and -27 and percentage drops of -0.21%, -0.40%, and -0.40% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6459, 6461, and 6492 respectively, with price drops of -37, -21, and -23 and percentage drops of -0.57%, -0.32%, and -0.35% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL January, May, and September contracts were 50, 384215, and 20448 respectively; the trading volumes for PP January, May, and September contracts were 141, 293620, and 21559 respectively. The open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were 71, 495212, and 51049 respectively; the open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were 586, 466241, and 85985 respectively. The changes in open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were +29, +9748, and +2270 respectively; the changes in open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were +79, -4253, and -3354 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 66, -24, and -42 respectively; the previous spreads were 53, -24, and -29 respectively. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -2, -31, and 33 respectively; the previous spreads were 14, -33, and 19 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2208 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 600 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6300 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2215 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Tuesday (January 20), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.34 per barrel, up $0.90 from the previous trading day, a 1.51% increase, with a trading range of $58.95 - $60.68. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.92 per barrel, up $0.98 from the previous trading day, a 1.53% increase, with a trading range of $63.38 - $65.15 [2]