汇丰晋信基金郑小兵： 筑牢"安全防线" 底部布局静待宏观共振 四维框架筑牢安全防线 为提供更好的投资体验，投资的"安全边际"被不少基金经理放在了更重要的位置。郑小兵也以"安全"为 投资核心，观察宏观、行业、个股、买卖点四大维度，并最终指向"适配长期资金，追求回撤可控的长 期弹性"，力求规避高估值风险。 他认为，宏观研判是投资决策的基石。他会结合康波周期等理论，判断国内外经济情况，比如当前处于 国内经济企稳回升、海外经济风险加剧的阶段，这直接决定了他的布局偏"左侧"与"风险控制"，而非追 逐短期热门赛道，为长期资金的安全配置打下基础。 在行业选择上，他会通过"行业比较"筛选标的，聚焦估值底部、与国内经济相关性强、有长期潜力的行 业，明确表示不会参与拥有"梦想估值"的板块，避免因短期概念炒作导致长期资金承受风险。 ◎记者 朱妍 在结构性行情下，投资如何做到"稳健长盈"？对此，汇丰晋信基金经理郑小兵在接受上海证券报记者专 访时表示，应秉持"先防亏，再盈利"的理念，在有"安全边际"的前提下投资。展望后市，期待国内外宏 观共振拐点出现，因为其中蕴含全面上涨机遇。 在买卖点把控上，他则关注"情绪周期"。"我会通过分析市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber sector continued to strengthen with the macro - environment this week, showing a pattern of widespread simultaneous rises and falls among commodities. The volatility of the rubber sector reached a 5 - year high under the dual drive of the macro - environment and events. Attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility. The market may return to the fundamentals of limited improvement after the macro - sentiment fades [3][5]. - The supply of synthetic rubber has become slightly looser, with a slight increase in the production of butadiene rubber and a slight decrease in the production of semi - steel tires [4]. - Some macro data, such as the CSI 1000 Index and the Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index, are favorable for the unilateral trend of RU, while the supply data of natural rubber shows that only the price of smoked sheet rubber has slightly stabilized and rebounded, and the fundamentals for a recovery are not solid [5]. - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has affected the market, but the market mainly followed the macro - strengthening logic after a short - term reaction to the potential supply tightening. If the domestic macro - drive weakens next week and the conflict escalates, it may become the main contradiction again [5]. - The mixed basis is bearish and has not been affected by the macro - warming. The supply of natural and synthetic rubber has certain changes, which has an impact on the trend of RU [27][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - related Data - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6476 points, reaching a new high since January 2016. The average value in the past 6 months increased by +19.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for 12 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. - The Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index reported +12.4 points, with the average value in the past 6 months increasing by +6.6 points year - on - year, and the increase expanding for 2 consecutive months, which is also favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. 3.2 Impact of the Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict - Four Thai provinces affected by the conflict account for about 7% of Thailand's total rubber production. In 2024, the total rubber production of these four provinces was 34.1 tons, accounting for 7.1% of Thailand's total production of 478.9 tons. Cambodia's total production in 2024 was 40.7 tons [20][22]. - The RU - NR spread is a good indicator to reflect the impact of the Thailand - Cambodia border conflict. Currently, NR is relatively weak compared to RU, but the conflict is expected to suppress the supply of 20 - grade rubber and make NR relatively stronger. The spread started to move before the unilateral increase on July 24, confirming the supply logic in advance [25][26]. 3.3 Mixed Basis and Supply - demand Factors - In May, the total import volume of standard and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased for 2 consecutive months, but the average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with the marginal increase for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber [28]. - In June, the total import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China decreased for 3 consecutive months, reaching 60.0 tons. The production of synthetic rubber increased month - on - month, reaching 70.3 tons, and the production of natural rubber increased for 3 consecutive months in May, reaching 9.7 tons. The total of these is 140.0 tons, with the cumulative volume in the past 3 months increasing by +9.3% year - on - year, and the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [37]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene increased to 70.0%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +2.3% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased to 67.6%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +9.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal increase [49]. - The port inventory of domestic butadiene decreased for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching 1.57 tons, with the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increasing by +0.21 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber in traders and factories is 3.23 tons, with the average inventory in 5 weeks increasing by +0.90 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks [49]. 3.5 Tire Consumption - The production line operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased to 65.0%, with the average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increasing by +3.9% year - on - year, and the marginal increase for 9 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of all - steel tires remained unchanged at 41 days, with the average inventory in 24 weeks decreasing by - 2.7% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 53 consecutive weeks [60]. - The production line operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased to 75.9%, with the average operating rate in the past 24 weeks increasing by +3.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal decrease. The product inventory of semi - steel tires increased by 1 day to 47 days, with the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increasing by +36.5% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 9 consecutive weeks [60]. 3.6 NR Month - spread - The daily average open interest of the NR contract is equivalent to 115.90 tons, the warehouse receipt volume is 3.48 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio is 32.30 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the reduction in warehouse receipts in the later period [65]. - From a long - term perspective, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (the near - month contract weakens). Attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [65].