Economic Indicators - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year[15] - August manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector[14] - Exports in August grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month[15] Market Trends - Social financing growth rate has declined for the first time since October last year, indicating weak overall demand[1] - The 10-year government bond yield briefly exceeded 1.8%, suggesting a potential buying opportunity[1] - The bond market is expected to benefit from continued monetary easing as the economic fundamentals remain under pressure[1] Policy Developments - The government is expected to implement new policies to support the bond market, including early issuance of local government debt limits for 2026[21] - The State Council has approved the establishment of a national-level nature reserve, reflecting ongoing environmental policy initiatives[9] External Environment - The U.S. and Europe are discussing new sanctions against Russia, which may introduce uncertainties in external demand[1] - Global central banks' gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences[18]

宏观利率研究 证券研究报告 / 宏观利率研究 2025 年 07 月 28 日 股债"跷跷板"分流资金 关注重要会议及中美谈判 宏观利率周报（20250721-0725） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：7 月全球 PMI 不及预期，关税压制环境中下半年出口增量有限。 叠加限产趋势，预计制造业景气或依然偏弱。上半年经济增长基础稳固，完成全 年目标三季度压力不大，下一轮稳增长或在四季度出现，长周期看货币政策无需 过早收紧。与此同时，反内卷预期短期难以证伪，权益市场放量加速行情仍在演 化，股市 "跷跷板"效应将继续分流债市资金，阶段性压力仍在。上周，各大商品 交易所连发风险提示，周五商品期货全线下跌，或有助利率平稳运行。本周建议 关注重要会议以及中美谈判结果。 ⚫ 行情回顾：雅江水电站亮相，股市赚钱效应显现，上证行情一度突破 3600 点，"跷跷板"效应分流债市资金。叠加反内卷政策陆续推出、资金面偏紧，收 益率全线大幅调整，期限结构陡峭化。 ⚫ 市场要闻：（1）贸易摩擦。商务部就欧盟第 18 轮对俄制裁列单中国企业和 金融机构事答记者问。（2）国债发行落实。第三批国债支持以旧换新资金下达。 置换债已发行全年额度的 90% ...