投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-11 股市继续缩量，债市情绪偏空 股指期货：事件催化，超额收益持续性不佳 股指期权：⽇线仍是降波趋势 国债期货：债市情绪偏空 股指期货方面，事件催化，超额收益持续性不佳。周三沪指震荡收 平，继续缩量至2万亿元，市场交易围绕局部热点，超额收益的持续性不 佳。周二领跌的AI算力硬件股，周三集体反弹，而此前上涨的PEEK材料、 固态电池概念股跌幅居前，主要催化来自海外，其一是甲骨文预计2026财 年云基础设施营收增长77%，其二是微软达成174亿美元AI算力采购协议， 叠加工信部颁发卫星移动通信业务经营许可，推动通信、电子、传媒领 涨。另外，午间报道发改委将召开生猪产能调控企业座谈会，催化"反内 卷"相关板块异动。由于利好聚焦在点状板块，难构成月度主线，市场等 待下一事件催化，高低切换盘整，获利盘止盈环境中，建议以哑铃结构应 对市场分歧，短期建议配置红利ETF+IM多单。 股指期权方面，日线仍是降波趋势。昨日现货市场波动放缓，期权端 交易型资金观望，昨日期权市场成交金额和前一个交易日基本一致。波动 率方面，昨日尽管盘中 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight increase today, with all three major indices rising, driven by the overseas demand for computing power, particularly in the TMT sector [2][7][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.27%, with a total market turnover of 2 trillion yuan and 2,440 stocks rising [2][10] Market Performance - The telecommunications sector led the gains with a rise of 3.50%, followed by media and internet (+1.87%) and electronics (+1.62%). Conversely, the power and new energy equipment sector fell by 1.15%, while metal materials and mining dropped by 0.81% and coal by 0.75% [10] - Notable concepts that performed well included copper-clad laminates (+3.73%), ice and snow tourism (+3.10%), and optical modules (+3.07%), while lithium mining, lithium battery anodes, photovoltaic inverters, and PEEK materials lagged [10] Market Drivers - The A-share market's rise was catalyzed by multiple factors in the overseas computing power sector, with AI giants increasing their investments in computing power. Oracle expects a 77% growth in cloud infrastructure revenue for the fiscal year 2026, and Microsoft has signed a $17.4 billion deal with AI infrastructure group Nebius [10] - Following China Unicom, China Mobile is applying for a satellite mobile communication business license, boosting the performance of RF and antenna, and 6G satellite internet concepts [10] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, aligning with the 2025 annual investment strategy report. Key macroeconomic clues for 2025 focus on "liquidity as a lifeblood," with expectations for a bull market based on historical experiences from 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10] - Short-term investment focus includes sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, such as fiberglass and products, cement and concrete, fine chemicals, and rare earth materials [10] Long-term Perspective - In a "slow bull" market, attention should be given to value-oriented non-bank sectors and technology growth areas, particularly AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries [10] - The report suggests monitoring sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, including metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [10]

截至2025年9月10日 13:21，中证央企创新驱动指数上涨0.01%，成分股中材科技上涨6.94%，中国联通上涨6.03%，深南电路上涨5.63%，中国卫星上涨 3.45%，国睿科技上涨2.19%。央企创新驱动ETF(515900)多空胶着，最新报价1.54元。拉长时间看，截至2025年9月9日，央企创新驱动ETF近3月累计上涨 7.52%，涨幅排名可比基金2/4。 流动性方面，央企创新驱动ETF盘中换手0.45%，成交1562.36万元。拉长时间看，截至9月9日，央企创新驱动ETF近1年日均成交2398.53万元，居可比基金 第一。 消息面上，工信部向中国联通颁发卫星移动通信业务经营许可。中国联通可依法开展手机直连卫星等业务，深化应急通信、海事通信、偏远地区通信等场景 应用，丰富通信服务与产品供给。下一步，工信部将进一步优化卫星通信市场准入，强化全链条监管与安全保障，促进我国卫星通信产业高质量发展，有力 支撑网络强国、航天强国、数字中国建设。 规模方面，央企创新驱动ETF近3月规模增长1.83亿元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金1/4。 央企创新驱动ETF紧密跟踪中证央企创新驱动指数，中证央企创新驱 ...