年会期间，21世纪金融研究院还将重磅发布《2025中国银行业竞争力研究报告》与《中国保险业竞争力 研究报告（2025）》，并同步揭晓"2025年度21世纪金融竞争力优秀案例""2025南财数字金融'先锋'案 例"，为金融行业发展提供极具价值的实践参考与方向指引。 11月22日，我们诚挚邀请各方嘉宾聚首北京，在思想的碰撞中凝聚共识，在深度的探索中破解难题，携 手共绘中国金融业高质量发展的崭新蓝图！ 立足二十周年的里程碑，本届年会以"重塑金融韧性 穿越利率周期"为主题，汇聚监管层代表、金融机 构领军人物及权威专家学者。近五十位重磅嘉宾将通过主题演讲、平行论坛、圆桌对话等多元形式，共 同剖析周期运行规律、探寻行业破局之道、共话金融未来发展。 面对利率波动，如何稳固经营基本盘？怎样以金融活水精准浇灌高水平科技自立自强的沃土？又该如何 破解低利率环境下财富管理的发展难题？针对这些行业核心关切，本届年会在主论坛之外，特别设 置"金融助力高水平科技自立自强""财富管理的低利率之问"两大主题论坛，直击行业痛点，共商解决方 案。 21世纪经济报道记者 张欣 金融是国民经济的血脉,关乎强国建设、民族复兴大局。值此"十五五"规划擘 ...

倒计时3天！第二十届21世纪金融年会来了！ 厚积者远发，蓄硕者用充。作为现代经济的核心，金融业始终与时代同频、与发展共兴，是抵御周期波动、支撑经济高质量发 展的重要力量。恰逢"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年，为凝聚行业共识、探索发展新路径，由南方财经全媒体集团指导、21世纪经 济报道主办的"第二十届21世纪金融年会"将于2025年11月22日在北京举办。 自2006年肇启，"21世纪金融年会"已连续成功举办十九届，并凭借前瞻性的议题设置、高规格的嘉宾阵容与深远的行业洞察， 成长为中国金融领域最具权威性与影响力的年度盛会之一，持续见证并助推中国金融业的变革与升级。 站在二十周年的里程碑上，本届年会将以"重塑金融韧性 穿越利率周期"为主题，特别邀请监管层代表、金融机构领军者、权威 专家学者齐聚一堂，近五十位重磅嘉宾将通过主题演讲、平行论坛、圆桌对话等多元环节，共析周期规律、共探破局路径、共 话行业未来。 如何在利率波动中稳住经营基本盘？如何以金融活水滋养高水平科技自立自强？如何破解财富管理的"低利率"之问？在主论坛 之外，本届年会特设"金融助力高水平科技自立自强"、"财富管理的低利率之问"两场主题论坛，直面行业核心关切 ...

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience, with varying growth drivers across regions, including technology and AI in the US, inventory replenishment in Europe, and fiscal spending in China [3] - The global monetary policy easing cycle has commenced, with major central banks starting to cut interest rates in 2023, although the pace may be slower than market expectations [4] - A significant shift of funds from cash to fixed income and equity markets is occurring, driven by declining risk-free rates and the diminishing advantages of holding cash [5] Economic Growth and Policy - Policy support for economic growth is increasing, with a notable decline in leverage ratios across both developed and emerging markets, although disparities exist among sectors [2] - The US economy's growth is primarily supported by capital investments in technology and AI, while Europe benefits from trade uncertainties leading to inventory restocking [3] Investment Opportunities - The global high-yield bond market is maturing, with improved issuer quality and reduced average duration, making it an attractive investment option [6] - Investment-grade bonds remain appealing due to strong fundamentals and yields above historical averages, particularly in the US and Europe [6] - Emerging market bonds, especially local currency bonds, are gaining attention as they can enhance portfolio returns while reducing overall risk [6][7] Market Trends - The "cash migration" phenomenon is evident, with a significant increase in money market fund sizes since 2022, indicating a shift towards fixed income investments [5] - The expectation of a weaker US dollar in the medium to long term suggests that emerging market bonds may perform well during this period [7]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show resilience amid weak employment data and rising demand for safe-haven assets, reflecting deeper considerations regarding interest rate cycles, asset allocation, and long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Employment Data - The latest ADP employment report indicates a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, contrary to market expectations of a gain of 50,000. This marks the first consecutive month of job losses since 2020 and the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Weakness in the labor market diminishes confidence in economic recovery and strengthens expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a rate-cutting path [1] Precious Metals Performance - In a "dollar-neutral" environment, the focus shifts to fundamental and sentiment-driven factors, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,922.70 before closing at $3,892.60 [2] - The upward trend has formed a "shooting star" pattern, suggesting a potential short-term market adjustment, but not necessarily a complete trend reversal [2] Investment Strategies - Institutional investors are advised to consider both macroeconomic policies and technical signals when investing in precious metals, utilizing a combination of ETFs and futures to capture price increases while hedging against short-term volatility [3] - The core variables for the precious metals market remain interest rate trends and risk aversion, with a solid long-term upward logic for prices if weak employment data and loose monetary policy persist [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming cycle of interest rate cuts is expected to correct mispricing in securities, particularly benefiting those with high visibility and certainty of cash flows, while those with low certainty may remain mispriced [1][2]. Group 1: Discounting and Cash Flow Visibility - The article discusses the application of discounting math to both bonds and equities, highlighting that securities with high visibility of cash flows are better positioned as interest rates decrease [2]. - Bonds have perfect visibility of cash flows, allowing precise discounting calculations, while equities exhibit more complexity due to varying cash flow visibility [3][9]. - Value stocks, characterized by lower duration due to high earnings relative to price, should theoretically outperform growth stocks during rate hikes, but this has not been observed in practice [10][11]. Group 2: Mispricing Observations - Despite the expectation that growth stocks would suffer more during rate hikes due to their higher duration, they have outperformed value stocks, indicating a significant mispricing in the market [11][13]. - The observed phenomenon shows that value stocks with visible cash flows were more punished during interest rate increases, contrary to mathematical expectations [22]. - REITs and utilities, which have high cash flow visibility and shorter durations, were expected to be more resilient but also faced mispricing during the rate hike cycle [23][24]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Sector Performance - As interest rates are anticipated to decrease, sectors with high cash flow visibility, such as REITs and utilities, are expected to benefit significantly from the rate cuts [26][28]. - The long-duration sectors are projected to be the biggest beneficiaries of rate cuts, with specific subsectors like triple net, retail, and industrial REITs expected to outperform due to their long rental contracts [32]. - The current valuation and fundamental strength in these subsectors support the expectation of outperformance during the upcoming rate cut cycle [33].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian central bank has initiated a 25 basis point interest rate cut, aligning with the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, but with a more proactive approach, creating a distinct policy stance compared to the Fed [1] Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3939, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% from the opening price of 1.3935 [1] - The early rate cut by the Bank of Canada typically puts downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, which, due to its weight in the USD index, can support a rebound in the dollar index [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The Bank of Canada's earlier entry into the rate cut cycle has limited its future policy space, while the Federal Reserve is expected to gradually shift towards rate cuts [1] - As the interest rate differential between Canada and the U.S. narrows, this trend may provide fundamental support for the Canadian dollar in the long term, potentially weakening the upward momentum of the dollar index [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD pair remains above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently at 1.3838, indicating strong short-term price momentum [2] - The pair has surpassed the four-month high of 1.3924 set on August 22, with potential to challenge the five-month high of 1.4016 reached on May 13 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the expectation of a decline in USD interest rates is influencing market behavior, with potential implications for investment strategies [2][3] - A decline in USD interest rates is generally beneficial for the global stock market, akin to gravitational pull on assets [4] - The anticipated decline in USD interest rates is particularly advantageous for non-USD assets, with significant gains observed in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks since the Fed's first rate cut in September 2024 [5] Group 2 - If the yield on 10-year USD Treasury bonds falls to a normal range of 2%-3%, caution is advised as it may signal the start of a new rate hike cycle, negatively impacting non-USD assets [6][7] - Interest rates exhibit cyclical behavior rather than a one-way trend, having experienced multiple cycles of increases and decreases over the past 10-20 years [7] - Interest rates are not a long-term market driver but can create short-term opportunities for undervalued buying and overvalued selling [8]

Group 1: Interest Rate Cycle - The current economic adjustment phase is characterized by a rate cut cycle aimed at stimulating the economy, which is a typical response during such periods [3] - In the early to mid-stage of the rate cut cycle, both LPR and deposit rates decrease, leading to pressure on bank performance as asset re-pricing occurs faster than liabilities, resulting in challenges such as increased asset quality control [3][4] - Towards the end of the rate cut cycle, the reduction in LPR slows down, allowing banks to enter a more comfortable performance zone as net interest margins begin to recover [3] Group 2: Stable Interest Rate Period - After the rate cut cycle, a stable interest rate period is expected, where banks benefit from lower liability costs and improved asset quality, leading to increased net interest income and reduced credit impairment losses [5][6] - In the later stage of the stable period, while asset quality continues to improve, the cost of liabilities remains stable, allowing banks to maintain comfortable performance levels [6][7] Group 3: Interest Rate Hike Cycle - An interest rate hike cycle occurs when the economy overheats, with both LPR and deposit rates increasing, leading to a faster re-pricing of assets compared to liabilities, which enhances net interest margins [8][9] - In the later stage of the hike cycle, the impact of rising deposit rates becomes evident, but the increase in asset yields slows down, which may suppress net interest margins and return on equity [9][10] Group 4: Overall Economic Cycle Understanding - The cyclical nature of bank performance is crucial for long-term investors, as banks typically reserve profits during prosperous years and release provisions during challenging times, reflecting a normal phenomenon in banking operations [11] - The discussion around declining ROE during this period lacks significance without recognizing the cyclical nature of bank performance, which can lead to linear extrapolation errors [11]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the need to monitor domestic economic policy changes due to the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the focus on countering "involution" [1] Fixed Income - The report discusses why domestic commercial banks are unlikely to reduce their balance sheets, citing factors such as the need to support the economy during a slowdown, the current accommodative monetary policy, and the role of state-owned capital in maintaining financial services to the real economy [2][22] - It emphasizes that the probability of a sector-wide balance sheet reduction is low, despite some smaller banks potentially facing this situation [22] Industry Analysis - The environmental industry report indicates that the waste incineration sector saw a revenue increase of 1% year-on-year in H1 2025, with net profit rising by 8% and an improvement in cash flow [4][6] - The report notes that operational efficiency improvements and reduced financial costs are driving performance growth, with a significant increase in return on equity (ROE) for pure waste operation companies [4][6] - It highlights the importance of enhancing operational efficiency and expanding both B-end and C-end markets to boost profitability and cash flow [6] Food and Beverage Industry - The beer industry report suggests that the sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumption, particularly in dining and retail scenarios, with a focus on high-growth companies like Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer [7] - The health supplement sector is noted for its potential valuation reconstruction, with a focus on quality stocks [8] Company-Specific Insights - The report on Yingke Recycling indicates strong growth in the decorative building materials business, with a focus on expanding its recycling capabilities and global presence [9] - The analysis of Magmi Te highlights a revenue increase of 16.5% year-on-year in H1 2025, despite a significant drop in net profit due to increased strategic investments [10][11] - The report on Weirgao emphasizes its leadership in the power PCB sector, projecting significant revenue growth driven by AI server demand and production capacity expansion [12] - The analysis of Dacilin shows a revenue increase of 1.33% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a notable profit growth of 21.38% [13] - The report on Dazhu CNC highlights its position as a leader in PCB equipment, benefiting from the demand for high-layer PCB devices driven by AI server needs [14]

Macro Strategy - The domestic economy is expected to face slight pressure in the second half of the year, but the annual growth target of 5% remains achievable, supported by policy tools and consumption recovery [8] - Key risks include potential declines in exports, consumer spending pressures, and slowdowns in real estate and infrastructure investments [8] - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases are anticipated to show increased volatility, with a higher likelihood of significant deviations from expectations [8] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses why domestic commercial banks are unlikely to reduce their balance sheets, citing factors such as the need to support the economy during a slowdown and the current accommodative monetary policy [2][12] - The analysis highlights that the banking sector's capital adequacy ratios and non-performing loan ratios are above regulatory standards, providing a buffer against credit risks [12] - The report suggests that while some smaller banks may consider balance sheet reductions, the overall probability for the entire industry is low [12] Company-Specific Insights 越疆 (02432.HK) - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.53 billion for H1 2025, a 27.1% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in six-axis collaborative robot sales [17] - The gross margin improved to 47.0%, with a notable reduction in net losses due to operational efficiencies [17] - The company has signed a strategic partnership with Yaoshi Bang to explore applications of intelligent robotics in the pharmaceutical sector [17] 伟仕佳杰 (00856.HK) - The company is a leading ICT solutions provider in the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on cloud computing and AI, expecting revenue growth of 15% to 14% from 2025 to 2027 [18][19] - The Southeast Asian market is a key growth area, with revenue from this region projected to increase significantly [19] - The company has established partnerships with major tech firms, enhancing its service offerings across various sectors [19] 亿纬锂能 (300014) - The company is set to launch its solid-state battery production facility, with an expected annual capacity of nearly 500,000 cells [20] - It anticipates a significant increase in shipments, projecting a 60% year-on-year growth in 2025 [20] - The company is focusing on differentiated products, with plans to expand its production capacity significantly by 2027 [20] 比亚迪 (002594) - The company expects net profits of RMB 450 billion, RMB 589 billion, and RMB 710 billion for 2025 to 2027, maintaining a growth trajectory [20] - The focus on high-end products and international expansion is expected to drive future growth [20] 科士达 (002518) - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 5.8 billion, RMB 8.2 billion, and RMB 11.7 billion for 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the growth in data centers and energy storage [20] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the rapid development of the charging and storage industries [20]