Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT US soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space below the 01 contract is limited. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Spot and Spread Data - **Spot Basis**: The 43% soybean meal spot basis varies by location. For example, in Dalian it's 96, in Tianjin it's 46 - 4, and in different regions it shows different values and changes. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 34 with a change of 25 [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 386 with a change of 5, and the futures price spread of the main contract is 541 with a change of - 1. The RM1 - 5 spread is 107, and the M1 - 5 spread is 240 [6][7]. - **Other Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal price spread and relevant data are also presented, along with the soybean CNF premium - continuous month data and the relationship between the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and relevant profits [7]. 2. Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The ISDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre, but lowered the planting area in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is reduced to 290 million bushels. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans this week reached 69%, but due to less rainfall and low temperature in the producing areas, the good - excellent rate may decline slightly [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The expected arrival of soybeans in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the inventory is in the accumulation cycle. In October, the inventory is expected to start decreasing, and the supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7][8]. 3. Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the feed demand. However, policy guidance aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which will affect the long - term supply of pigs. Some regions use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the提货 volume is at a high level. The downstream transactions of soybean meal this week are cautious [8]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level and is in the accumulation cycle [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal inventory is increasing, lower than the same period last year, and is expected to continue accumulating. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the projections for soybean and oilseed production, highlighting changes in planting area, yield, and total supply for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons [1][2] - For soybeans, the harvested area is expected to decrease slightly from 86.1 million acres to 82.5 million acres, while the yield remains stable at 50.7 bushels per acre for 2024/25 [1] - The total soybean production is projected to decline from 4,366 million bushels to 4,335 million bushels in 2025/26, with a corresponding decrease in total supply from 4,734 million bushels to 4,705 million bushels [1] Group 2 - The oil production is forecasted to remain stable at 28,800 million pounds for 2024/25, with a slight increase in total supply from 30,851 million pounds to 31,871 million pounds in 2025/26 [2] - Domestic usage of oil is expected to decrease from 26,800 million pounds to 26,700 million pounds in 2024/25, while biodiesel usage is projected to drop significantly from 12,900 million pounds to 12,250 million pounds [2] - The total demand for oil is anticipated to decline slightly from 29,400 million pounds to 29,300 million pounds in 2024/25, with an increase in ending stocks from 1,451 million pounds to 1,531 million pounds in 2025/26 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant short-selling activity by hedge funds, with Brent crude short positions reaching their highest level since October of the previous year, indicating a bearish sentiment towards oil prices [3]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have collectively increased their short positions in Brent crude by over 16,000 contracts, bringing the total to 130,000 contracts, the highest in eight months [3]. - WTI crude's short positions have also risen to a three-week high, reflecting a broader trend of bearish bets on oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The anticipated OPEC+ meeting, where discussions about potential production increases are expected, is a key driver behind the surge in short positions. There are rumors of a third significant production increase, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [3][4]. - The potential easing of sanctions on Iran could allow Iranian oil back into the market, further increasing supply and contributing to bearish sentiment [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The short-selling trend reflects a short-term bet on OPEC+ production increases and the return of Iranian oil, while also indicating a longer-term market view on the pace of global economic recovery [4]. - If global demand does not keep pace with increased supply, oil prices could face significant downward pressure, but if demand rebounds, the impact of increased supply may be mitigated [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on supply-demand balance and macroeconomic cycles rather than short-term market sentiment, as these factors are critical in determining oil price trends [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that high short positions can lead to price rebounds if production increases do not materialize as expected or if global demand exceeds forecasts [4].