Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In 2026, the non-ferrous metal market will continue to trade on the two themes of "macro-policy disturbances" and "mine supply security." The prices of different metals will significantly diverge based on their supply-demand fundamentals. It is advisable to focus on structural opportunities, such as the long-term allocation value of copper, aluminum, and tin, the internal and external arbitrage window in the zinc market, and the banded rebound opportunities of cobalt, nickel, and other varieties due to policy or cost support. The strength ranking of major global non-ferrous metals in 2026 is: tin > copper > aluminum > cobalt > zinc > nickel > lithium > lead [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry Background: Game, Deviation, and Resource Security - **Geopolitical Aspect**: Sino-US game remains a long-term core variable affecting global trade and the basic metal market. Although there was a period of relaxation since October this year, the long-term structural competition pattern remains unchanged, bringing continuous uncertainty to the market [2]. - **Economic Deviation**: The weak global manufacturing PMI data deviates from the strong performance of some basic metal prices. The OECD predicts that China's GDP growth rate will drop from 4.7% this year to 4.4% next year, confirming the weak real economy [2]. - **Monetary Environment**: The market highly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy path. Overall, global liquidity will remain relatively loose in the future. The long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit will provide systematic support for commodity prices [4]. - **Resource Dependence Crisis**: China has a very high external dependence on non-ferrous metal minerals. Any supply disturbances in overseas mines will be magnified and quickly transmitted to the price end [6]. - **Low Inventory Effect**: Globally, the exchange inventories of most basic metals are at historically low levels, which weakens the market's buffer capacity against sudden supply-demand changes and increases price volatility [6]. 2. Outlook for the Non-Ferrous Metal Market in 2026: Differentiation and Structural Opportunities 2.1 Copper - **Core Logic**: Tight mine supply is the dominant contradiction, and financial attributes determine price elasticity [9]. - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the spot TC price index has been low or even negative for nearly 8 - 9 months. Global mine disturbances are frequent, and the supply-demand shortage of copper concentrate is expected to be about 500,000 tons in 2026 [9]. - **Demand Side**: New energy is the core driving force. In 2026, the new energy sector is expected to bring 213,000 tons and 141,000 tons of copper consumption increments to the Chinese and overseas markets respectively [9]. - **Inventory and Balance**: Although the global refined copper inventory as of November 6 is at a five-year high, the fundamental shortage at the mine end will push the price center upward. The current copper price close to 90,000 yuan/ton is expected to break through the 90,000 mark in 2026 [9]. 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Logic**: The "ceiling" of production capacity formed by China's supply-side reform and the new production capacity in Indonesia are the main contradictions, and low inventory amplifies price volatility [12]. - **Supply Side**: China's production capacity has reached the ceiling, and the key variable next year is the progress of Indonesia's new production capacity of about 600,000 tons and power supply. Overseas disturbances intensify the tightness. The global electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.15 million tons [12]. - **Demand Side**: Consumption growth is concentrated in the new energy field, and the consumption growth rate of the transportation sector in 2026 is expected to be 5% [12]. - **Inventory and Balance**: The global inventory is about 1.49 million tons, and the domestic inventory is less than 800,000 tons. A supply gap of 180,000 tons is expected in 2026, maintaining a tight balance [12]. - **Attribute Evolution**: The strategic attribute of aluminum is becoming increasingly prominent, enhancing its financial attribute and increasing its linkage with copper [12]. 2.3 Lead & Zinc - **Zinc**: The core feature is the serious divergence of internal and external market inventories, which creates a historical window for internal and external arbitrage. The growth rate of global zinc concentrate is expected to fall below 4% in 2026. China's zinc ingot is expected to have a surplus of 1.15 million tons in 2026, while overseas may reverse the shortage situation [13]. - **Lead**: It has entered an "internal circulation" cycle dominated by recycled lead, with a proportion of over 50%. The domestic market maintains a tight balance, while overseas may have a slight surplus. China's production is expected to slightly increase from 6.92 million tons to 6.95 million tons in 2026 [14]. 2.4 Nickel & Cobalt - **Nickel**: The primary nickel market remains in surplus, and the supply-demand difference in 2026 is expected to be 46,000 tons. The sufficient supply of nickel pig iron and MHP continues to suppress the nickel price. The future core variables are Indonesia's industrial policies and cost competition among different process routes [17]. - **Cobalt**: The floating quota policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the biggest variable. This mechanism has become an "automatic stabilizer" for the price, giving the cobalt price strong elasticity [17]. 2.5 Tin & Lithium - **Tin**: The core logic is the rigid supply constraint versus the structural growth of demand. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is less than expected, and the grade of overseas tin mines is declining. The global supply gap in 2026 is expected to be 730,000 tons, which is the fundamental reason for the continuous strengthening of the tin price for three years [19]. - **Lithium**: The global supply surplus pattern continues. The concentrated release of medium and low-grade lithium resource production capacity and the maturity of technologies such as lithium extraction from salt lakes lead to a downward shift in the cost center. The lithium price still faces downward pressure in the medium and long term [19]. 3. Summary - **Supply-Driven First Echelon**: Tin, copper, and aluminum have the strongest foundation for a structural bull market [21]. - **Policy/Structural Disturbance Second Echelon**: Cobalt and zinc have significant banded and structural opportunities [21]. - **Surplus Suppression Type**: Nickel, lithium, and lead are under overall pressure, mainly based on the logic of rebound and cost support [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: The strategy for steel is to be bullish with oscillations. [2] - Iron ore: The strategy for iron ore is to oscillate. [4] - Coking coal and coke: The strategies for coking coal and coke are both to be bullish with oscillations. [7] - Thermal coal: There is no investment strategy provided for thermal coal. [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are all showing upward trends. The supply of coal is facing disturbances, which has led to an increase in the valuation of commodities. [1][3][5][8] - The steel market is in the off - season for consumption, but the de - stocking performance is slightly better than the seasonal expectation. The plate shows strong consumption resilience. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment, and the implementation of policies and demand changes need to be followed up. [1] - In the iron ore market, under the influence of macro - policies, the market speculative sentiment has improved significantly, and the supply and demand fundamentals are good in the short term. However, in the long term, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is tight, and the demand for coke is strong. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round increase. [6] - In the thermal coal market, the price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and the market sentiment at ports is weak. The supply is expected to change, and the future supply and demand are expected to be tight. [8] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3,264 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract was 3,431 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market increased significantly, and the spot price followed the increase. The national building materials trading volume was 126,000 tons. [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The building materials are in the off - season, with slightly increased inventory and slightly decreased production. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment. [1] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 823.0 yuan/ton, with a 2.49% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports continued to rise, but the trading sentiment was cold. The total transaction volume of main ports was 1.233 million tons, a 30.20% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 920,000 tons, a 42.50% decrease. [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Macro - policies have increased disturbances, and the market speculative sentiment has improved. The supply has strong support, and the global shipment has increased. The demand is guaranteed as the molten iron production remains high, and the inventory at ports has not increased significantly. In the long term, the supply and demand are relatively loose. [3] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to oscillate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black varieties all rose. The coking coal futures had multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The second - round price increase of coke spot was implemented, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase. The price of Mongolian coking coal continued to rise. [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight due to restricted coal mine production. The demand for coke is strong as steel mills' profits are good and the molten iron production remains high. The trading volume of spot coking coal and coke has increased. [6] - **Strategy**: The strategies for coking coal and coke for a single - side position are both to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and some coal mines' prices have decreased. The market sentiment at ports is weak, and the trading volume is small. The price of imported coal is high, but the trading activity is low. [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Some coal mines have resumed production, and the supply is gradually being released. With the continuous high temperature, the demand is expected to strengthen. The market expects future supply and demand to be tight. [8] - **Strategy**: There is no investment strategy provided. [9]