市场投机情绪

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黑色建材日报:煤矿供应扰动,商品估值抬升-20250723
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: The strategy for steel is to be bullish with oscillations. [2] - Iron ore: The strategy for iron ore is to oscillate. [4] - Coking coal and coke: The strategies for coking coal and coke are both to be bullish with oscillations. [7] - Thermal coal: There is no investment strategy provided for thermal coal. [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are all showing upward trends. The supply of coal is facing disturbances, which has led to an increase in the valuation of commodities. [1][3][5][8] - The steel market is in the off - season for consumption, but the de - stocking performance is slightly better than the seasonal expectation. The plate shows strong consumption resilience. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment, and the implementation of policies and demand changes need to be followed up. [1] - In the iron ore market, under the influence of macro - policies, the market speculative sentiment has improved significantly, and the supply and demand fundamentals are good in the short term. However, in the long term, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is tight, and the demand for coke is strong. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round increase. [6] - In the thermal coal market, the price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and the market sentiment at ports is weak. The supply is expected to change, and the future supply and demand are expected to be tight. [8] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3,264 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract was 3,431 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market increased significantly, and the spot price followed the increase. The national building materials trading volume was 126,000 tons. [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The building materials are in the off - season, with slightly increased inventory and slightly decreased production. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment. [1] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 823.0 yuan/ton, with a 2.49% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports continued to rise, but the trading sentiment was cold. The total transaction volume of main ports was 1.233 million tons, a 30.20% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 920,000 tons, a 42.50% decrease. [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Macro - policies have increased disturbances, and the market speculative sentiment has improved. The supply has strong support, and the global shipment has increased. The demand is guaranteed as the molten iron production remains high, and the inventory at ports has not increased significantly. In the long term, the supply and demand are relatively loose. [3] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to oscillate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black varieties all rose. The coking coal futures had multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The second - round price increase of coke spot was implemented, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase. The price of Mongolian coking coal continued to rise. [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight due to restricted coal mine production. The demand for coke is strong as steel mills' profits are good and the molten iron production remains high. The trading volume of spot coking coal and coke has increased. [6] - **Strategy**: The strategies for coking coal and coke for a single - side position are both to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and some coal mines' prices have decreased. The market sentiment at ports is weak, and the trading volume is small. The price of imported coal is high, but the trading activity is low. [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Some coal mines have resumed production, and the supply is gradually being released. With the continuous high temperature, the demand is expected to strengthen. The market expects future supply and demand to be tight. [8] - **Strategy**: There is no investment strategy provided. [9]
市场投机情绪放缓,钢价震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 06:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]