3月5日，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），回顾2025年工作，研判当前形势，简要报 告"十五五"时期的主要目标和重大任务，提出2026年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署重点工作任 务。 总体上看，《报告》呈现四个主要特点。一是 历史方位上处于两个"五年"的交汇点，注重收官之年和开局之 年的有序衔接，增长目标设定与政府工作部署既考虑年内留足空间，也为未来五年夯实基础。 二是 高质量发 展贯穿始终，质的提升优于量的增长，不仅体现在年内发展目标的边际调整，也体现在"十五五"期间各类指标 设定兼具灵活性与坚定性。 三是 宏观政策保持力度，更加突出提质增效。财政总量温和扩张，持续优化支出 结构，增强可持续性。货币政策保持"适度宽松"，结构性政策工具发力或优于总量宽松，加强与财政政策协 同。 四是结构上注重科技与民生， 一方面科技引领提升全要素生产率，另一方面"投资于人"，提振消费推动 经济再平衡，同时充分发掘人力资本，为居民全生命周期基本需求兜底。 一、形势判断：外部影响加深，内部动能转换 《报告》首先回顾2025年工作成绩和"十四五"期间经济社会取得的重大成就，认为在宏观经济逆周期调节下， 着 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2026 年 03 月 06 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 邮箱：hemy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 学习政府工作报告后的七点思考 2026 年政府工作报告针对今年重点工作进行了系统全面的部署和安排， 并对"十五五"规划《纲要（草案）》作了简要报告。整体而言，与 2025 年政 策大幅"加力扩围"不同，"提质增效"成为今年经济工作的关键所在。目标方 面，降量提质，在淡化总量目标的同时对于调结构、防风险、促改革等方面提 出更高要求。取向方面，稳量增效，在保持总量规模基本稳定的同时，在政策 精准性、协同性、可操作性等方面给予更多关注。策略方面，问题导向，针对 经济系统堵点卡点针对性强化政策配置，为实现全年预期增长目标注入更多确 定性。思路方面，创新为要，将加紧培育壮大新动能和加快高水平科技自立自 强作为"十五五"时期经济工作的重中之重。亮点方面，民生为大，牢固树立 和践行正确政绩观，站在全局视角更大力度保障和改善民生。保障方面，安全 为基，以高水平安全为高质量发展保驾护航。战略方面，规划引领，新质生产 力、高水平科技自立自强、民生保障、安全发展等领域值得 ...

Group 1: Economic Confidence and International Trade - The central government shows increased confidence in international trade, with China's trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2025[6] - China's export share reached 15.1% in the 12 months leading up to July 2025, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating a recovery in global competitiveness[6] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus remains on expanding domestic demand, with a shift towards service consumption and innovative products in subsidy policies for 2026[8] - The meeting emphasized the need to optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, indicating a potential shift in consumption subsidies towards sectors like elderly products and smart vehicles[9] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize investment, with measures including increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[9] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced to stimulate private investment, with a focus on digital economy and urban renewal projects[10] Group 4: Macro Policy Adjustments - The macro policy direction has shifted to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," indicating a more cautious approach compared to last year's focus on stability[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to remain at 4% for 2026, with an increase in special bonds to support key projects[12] Group 5: Real Estate Market Stability - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by controlling supply and encouraging the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[16] - Reforms to the housing provident fund are proposed to broaden its usage and improve access for first-time buyers[17] Group 6: Supply-Side Optimization - The meeting acknowledged the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand, emphasizing the need for supply-side reforms[19] - The focus on "anti-involution" aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent rapid price declines in key industries[20]