Group 1: Economic Confidence and International Trade - The central government shows increased confidence in international trade, with China's trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2025[6] - China's export share reached 15.1% in the 12 months leading up to July 2025, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating a recovery in global competitiveness[6] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus remains on expanding domestic demand, with a shift towards service consumption and innovative products in subsidy policies for 2026[8] - The meeting emphasized the need to optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, indicating a potential shift in consumption subsidies towards sectors like elderly products and smart vehicles[9] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize investment, with measures including increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[9] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced to stimulate private investment, with a focus on digital economy and urban renewal projects[10] Group 4: Macro Policy Adjustments - The macro policy direction has shifted to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," indicating a more cautious approach compared to last year's focus on stability[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to remain at 4% for 2026, with an increase in special bonds to support key projects[12] Group 5: Real Estate Market Stability - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by controlling supply and encouraging the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[16] - Reforms to the housing provident fund are proposed to broaden its usage and improve access for first-time buyers[17] Group 6: Supply-Side Optimization - The meeting acknowledged the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand, emphasizing the need for supply-side reforms[19] - The focus on "anti-involution" aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent rapid price declines in key industries[20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton has been maintaining a low - level volatile trend, lacking fundamental guidance and upward drivers. It is expected to continue this trend, and its bottom is difficult to determine without clarity in international economic and trade situations [5][18] - Domestic cotton futures are in a rebound trend. In the short term, new cotton listings and strong hedging intentions of ginning factories will limit the rebound, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices will provide support. Therefore, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [1][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 64.17 | 64.78 | 63.65 | 64.18 | - 0.11 | - 0.17 | 90058 | - 19512 | 154286 | - 12704 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13360 | 13610 | 13350 | 13540 | 205 | 1.54 | 1157468 | 163138 | 590909 | 4442 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19490 | 19875 | 19490 | 19810 | 340 | 1.75 | 61434 | 7471 | 24050 | 3379 | [4] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has maintained a low - level volatile trend around 64 cents per pound due to the suspension of USDA data and reports, lack of fundamental guidance and upward drivers, but supported by commercial buying and rising crude oil prices [5] - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of the USDA's weekly export sales data [6] - India: In August, cotton exports increased year - on - year. Cotton imports in August were 62,940 tons, up 8% from July and 34% from the same period last year. Cotton exports were 19,000 tons, up 89% from August 2024. Cotton yarn exports were 83,700 tons, up 4% year - on - year. In September, cotton textile product exports (excluding clothing) decreased by 5.5% from August and 13.2% from the same period last year. Garment exports decreased by 19.2% month - on - month and 10.1% year - on - year. Since April 2025, total textile exports have increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - Brazil: In October, cotton exports rebounded. The pre - sale ratio of the 2025 production is about 70%, and that of the next season's expected total production is 32%. The estimated export volume in the first half of October is about 177,000 tons, and the full - month export volume is expected to reach 350,000 tons [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains average. Local factories have lowered price expectations due to quality decline, while ginning factories with high - quality inventory are reluctant to sell. Most factories mainly purchase domestic cotton, and import demand remains moderate [8] - Bangladesh: Low prices have stimulated import inquiries. Buyers are mainly interested in recently deliverable or in - transit cotton, and some are planning for long - term purchases. Yarn prices have risen due to improved downstream demand, but order volumes are still lower than normal levels [9][10] - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week of October 24, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 65.5%, Vietnam's was 61.5%, and Pakistan's was 65% [10] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand, with prices rising slightly and the basis weakening slightly. Spinning mills' acceptance of current spot prices is average, and some have made small pre - sales [11] - Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton purchase prices have risen rapidly, with some ginning factories having a cost of 14,700 - 15,000 yuan per metric ton (gross weight), and some having a cost below 14,600 yuan per metric ton (gross weight) [12] - As of October 24, there were 2503 registered cotton warrants and 685 pending warrants, totaling 3188 warrants, equivalent to 133,896 tons [12] - The situation of spinning mills is slightly better than that of weaving mills. Some spinning mills have tentatively raised prices, but actual transactions are limited. New orders for conventional varieties are insufficient, and only low - count yarns and yarns related to autumn and winter fabrics are selling well. Spinning mills' raw material purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and inventories have slightly increased and are higher than the same period in previous years. The sales of the cotton fabric market are dull, with production maintained by order re - orders, and inventories are accumulating [13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' startup rate (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' startup rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton fabric CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warrants [15][16][17] 3.4 Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range volatile trend. If the international economic and trade situation becomes clear, it may be beneficial for an increase in commercial buying. Otherwise, the bottom of ICE cotton is difficult to determine [18] - Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures rebounded after reaching a low of 62.71 cents per pound, and its short - term trend is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the commodity market, which is influenced by the international economic and trade situation, expected to last until late October to early November. Domestic cotton futures stabilized and rebounded. In the short term, the large - scale listing of new cotton and strong hedging willingness of ginning mills will limit the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices will support it. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [1][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Futures Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 64.00 | 64.50 | 62.71 | 64.29 | 0.52 | 0.82 | 109,570 | - 15,776 | 166,990 | - 2,793 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13,265 | 13,380 | 13,210 | 13,335 | 10 | 0.08 | 994,330 | 400,307 | 586,467 | 31,567 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19,290 | 19,505 | 19,235 | 19,470 | 95 | 0.49 | 53,963 | 39,489 | 20,671 | 10,758 | [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: It first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of the week, it continued the weakness of the previous two weeks, reaching a low of 62.71 cents per pound. Without data from the US Department of Agriculture, it was affected by technical selling pressure and stopped falling after getting support from commercial buyers. It was also affected by external market factors, mainly the market sentiment towards the international economic and trade situation [1][4]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: Due to the US government shutdown, the weekly export sales data from the US Department of Agriculture stopped being released [5]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: Good rainfall is expected to increase yield. From June to September, rainfall in the northwest was 27% higher than the long - term average, and 15% and 10% higher in the central and southern regions respectively. The estimated cotton yield this year is about 460 kg per hectare, a 3% increase from the 2023/24 season. The daily arrival volume is accelerating, reaching about 89,200 bales on October 15, the highest since the 2020/21 season [6]. - **Brazil**: CONAB predicts that the cotton planting area in the new season will increase by 2.5% to 2.138 million hectares, but its forecast of 4.031 million tons of cotton production is slightly lower than the previous season due to a downward adjustment of the yield assessment. Other institutions have different predictions. CONAB slightly raised the 2024/25 season cotton production forecast to 4.077 million tons. The Esalq index of local SLM cotton in Brazil fell to 352.05 (about 64.40 cents per pound) on October 14, a 21% drop from the recent high in early June [7]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand remains average. The estimated cotton production is 6 - 6.5 million bales. Imported cotton transactions did not increase significantly despite the new low of December ICE cotton futures. Domestic cotton prices fell, factories had sufficient inventory, and textile retailers only placed short - term orders. The local yarn and textile market remained weak. In September, the export value of the five major textile products was $1.3 billion, a 2.5% month - on - month increase but a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. In the first three months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the cumulative export value of the five major textile products was $3.97 billion, a 6% increase from the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year [7]. - **Bangladesh**: Policy uncertainty restricts cotton import purchases. Although the decline in US cotton futures has attracted some buying interest, most spinning enterprises are worried about weak cotton prices and low demand. Some enterprises may reduce production or shut down if the situation does not improve. Clothing manufacturers face narrowing profit margins due to US import tariffs [8][9]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week of October 17, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 68.5%, 62%, and 65% respectively [9]. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot Price**: It was slightly weaker. In the week of October 17, the domestic cotton spot price center decreased slightly. New cotton was gradually increasing in volume, and buying power was average. Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly under cost support and hedging pressure. Spinning enterprises made rigid purchases this week, with better point - price transactions in the first half of the week and slightly weaker in the second half. After the rise of Zhengzhou cotton futures, fixed - price spot transactions were relatively smooth. Most fixed - price quotes remained stable, and some lower - priced quotes appeared. Many cotton merchants lowered the sales basis of cotton spot [10]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: This week, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was relatively stable, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan per kilogram, the higher price at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram, and the local high price at 6.3 - 6.4 yuan per kilogram. The theoretical cost of new cotton was 13,800 - 14,600 yuan per ton [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, there were 2,653 registered warehouse receipts and 183 pending warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 2,836 receipts, equivalent to 119,112 tons [11]. - **Yarn and Fabric Mills**: The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was weaker than last week, and sales slowed down. Overall, new orders were insufficient, with large factories having better orders than small ones, and non - conventional yarn selling better than conventional yarn. In terms of price, due to low inventory and seasonal rigid demand, the price was stable with a slight decline in the first half of the week and basically stable in the second half. In terms of profit, the cash flow of inland yarn mills turned positive, with a theoretical cash flow of about 50 yuan per ton, and Xinjiang spinning enterprises had good cash flow. The overall cash flow improvement led to a slight increase in the startup rate of some spinning enterprises, but the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly this week. The trading atmosphere in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fabric mills maintaining small - order shipments. The production - sales rate was lower than in September, mainly due to weak downstream demand. Fabric prices were discounted according to quantity, and fabric mills maintained a slight loss. Currently, fabric mills mainly had small and scattered orders, and overall orders were scarce. Inquiries and samples for spring and summer orders were not good, and actual orders still needed to be awaited. After the National Day, the inventory of conventional varieties in fabric mills accumulated, and the startup rate was lower than before the holiday. Due to poor order connection, fabric mills mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and purchased according to orders [12]. 3. Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' startup rate (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' startup rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton fabric CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16]. 4. Operation Suggestions Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, and market fluctuations may mainly come from the complex international economic and trade situation [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of cotton is stable, and attention should be paid to the international economic and trade situation [1] - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex, with domestic spot trading showing a certain situation, and the cotton textile enterprise market facing challenges, while ICE cotton maintains a weak trend [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,265 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.26% and a night - session closing price of 13,240 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.19%. CY2601 closed at 19,290 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.36% and a night - session closing price of 19,280 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 63.43 cents/pound with a decline of 0.17%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 257,911 lots, a decrease of 166,826 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 850,743 lots, an increase of 11,250 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 10,684 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 16,412 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 2,823, a decrease of 44, and the effective forecast was 52, an increase of 21. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 6, unchanged [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,402 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.28%. The price in Shandong was 14,758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan or 0.30%. The price in Hebei was 14,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan or 0.21%. The 3128B index was 14,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan or 0.23%. The international cotton index M was 71.22 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.29%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,254 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan or 0.10% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was fair, and spinning enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement. The mainstream purchase price of 40% lint percentage machine - picked seed cotton in Beijiang was stable at 6.0 - 6.1 yuan/kg, with some higher offers around 6.2 yuan/kg. There were different price quotes for different grades and regions of cotton [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprise Situation**: The new orders in the pure - cotton yarn market were weak, the prices of medium - and low - count yarns were under pressure, and varieties below C40S were generally at a loss. The orders for high - count yarns and differentiated varieties were relatively stable, but the overall situation was still difficult to reverse. Xinjiang maintained a relatively high operating rate due to cost advantages [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE cotton futures first fell and then rose, closing slightly lower. Affected by market sentiment towards international economic and trade situations, the fundamentals of US cotton were still weak. Due to the suspension of the release of fundamental data by the US Department of Agriculture, the market lacked data guidance, and ICE cotton remained weak [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]