近日，长江商学院发布2025年第四季度《投资者情绪调查报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示，A股投资者情 绪整体较为乐观。 2025年，A股市场回暖向好，交投活跃，上证综指全年累计涨幅达18.4%，深证综指全年累计上涨29.3%，投 资者情绪与市场走势基本同步。本次调查中，认为A股会上涨的受访者占比约62.3%；其中，散户投资者对于 股市信心持续增强，认为A股会上涨的散户比例进一步提升至64.2%，较9月份的调查提高2.5个百分点。 在问及如果把A股上市公司的市值和其盈利能力作比较，如何看待目前A股市场价格时，大部分受访者认为当 前A股价格相对其基本面基本合理。从投资意愿来看，本次调查中，愿意投资股票的净增加人数占比为 13.9%，其中，散户投资意愿进一步上升，净增加占比达20.3%，较上期调查提高2.2个百分点。 从投资产品来看，贵金属备受投资者关注。2025年，黄金价格一路走高，全年涨幅达62.7%。"当前，全球经 济高波动，地缘政治不确定性加剧，推升了全球投资者对于黄金的避险需求。"长江商学院会计与金融学教 授、投资研究中心主任刘劲表示，这种风险感知已直接反映在资产配置偏好上，近年来，愿意投资黄金和债 券等避 ...

Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on various industries is significant, with the U.S. relying heavily on imports of manufactured goods from China, while China imports mainly commodities from the U.S. [4] - Over 70% of products imported by the U.S. from China account for 36% of total imports, while only 10% of products imported by China from the U.S. have a similar reliance [4] - The contribution of exports to the U.S. from China is less than 3% of China's GDP, indicating that excessive tariffs may not significantly harm China's economy [4] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to indirectly affect the profitability of Chinese companies through a slowdown in global GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs lowering its U.S. economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 2.5% to 0.5% [5][6] - The anticipated increase in China's fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP and a 60 basis point cut in interest rates are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of tariffs [6] Group 3 - The Chinese government may increase fiscal support for affected export products and consider measures to assist the 10-20 million jobs linked to exports to the U.S. [7] - Infrastructure projects may be expedited to stimulate GDP growth amidst trade tensions [7] Group 4 - The current market response to U.S.-China relations is less intense than in previous years, with the Goldman Sachs U.S.-China Relations Index indicating lower pressure compared to the peaks of 2022-2023 [8][9] Group 5 - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the A-share market have shown effectiveness, with a focus on attracting long-term investments and improving shareholder returns [10] - The national team's intervention has provided market stability, with sufficient liquidity support available if needed [11] Group 6 - Overseas funds have increased their positions in Chinese stocks, particularly in the AI sector, with a notable rise in allocations to emerging markets and Asia [12] - A-shares are expected to outperform H-shares in the next three months due to domestic investor stability and government support [13][14] Group 7 - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and government-related industries, which are expected to be less negatively impacted by external risks [15][16] Group 8 - The likelihood of Chinese companies being forced to delist from U.S. markets is lower than in previous trade disputes, as many have already listed in Hong Kong [17] Group 9 - The extent of tariff increases will depend on the desired outcomes, balancing revenue generation and the potential loss of exports [18] Group 10 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has raised questions about who is selling U.S. debt, with diversification of foreign reserves being a potential factor [19]