Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price of glass may maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as potential production line cold repairs improving the supply - demand situation, but weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass futures main contract opened higher and closed lower, with a weaker intraday trend. The trading volume decreased by 412,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 19,672 lots. The intraday high was 1,059, the low was 1,042, and the closing price was 1,047, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: In the North China market, the trading was average, and some prices declined with increased market wait - and - see sentiment; in the Central China market, the prices were stable with some enterprises' quotes loosening; in the East China market, the procurement was rational with a large proportion of rigid demand and stable prices; in the South China market, the transactions were good, and producers mostly maintained stable prices; in the Southwest market, the transactions slightly improved, while in the Northwest and Northeast markets, the demand was weak, the shipment speed slowed down, and the average price decreased [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1,010, and the basis was - 37 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the 18th. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong was shut down for cold repair yesterday, with a designed daily capacity of 900 tons, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repairs [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - Demand: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, the overall situation in the central and eastern regions changed little, the orders in South China still increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days slightly declining month - on - month [2] - Profit: As of December 25, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply: Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the production capacity clearance of some enterprises. Under the influence of factors such as the expectation of macro - level reserve requirement ratio cuts, anti - involution sentiment, and the expectation of supply decline, there may be short - term support [4] - Demand: The real estate development investment and the funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, the completion and new construction are weak, and the real estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on the spot price [4] - Outlook: Although the cold repair of production lines may improve the supply - demand pattern in the short term, the terminal is weak, the inventory accumulates, and there is insufficient upward driving force. The short - term price may maintain a volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in macro - policies and the situation of production line cold repairs [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term prices of both glass and soda ash may fluctuate. For glass, although there are short - term supports from macro - sentiment and coal price rebound, its upward driving force is insufficient. For soda ash, despite short - term support from continuous losses, slight de - stocking, and coal price rebound, the overall supply is still in surplus and the demand is expected to weaken [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Spot Market**: In the North China market, transactions are relatively flexible with prices weakly operating; in the East China market, enterprises purchase cautiously and some manufacturers' quotes are loose; in the Central China market, overall transactions are weak with a few prices falling; in the South China region, shipments are okay and most are on the sidelines. The market is generally not optimistic about year - end demand, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs [1] - **Supply**: As of December 18, the daily average output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with a weekly output of 1.0849 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.24%. The industry average operating rate was 73.99%, a 0.14% week - on - week increase; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repair [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.558 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 331,000 heavy boxes, a 0.57% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 8514.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a 4.2% week - on - week decrease and a 22.6% year - on - year decrease [2] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the profit of natural - gas - fired production lines was - 181.4 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 15.02 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production lines was - 0.07 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 35.71 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production lines was - 7.63 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 14.14 yuan/ton) [2] Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The spot market of soda ash fluctuates, with the trading center moving down. Enterprise devices fluctuate slightly, and the output of individual enterprises increases. Near the end of the month, downstream enterprises have poor purchasing sentiment, mostly on the sidelines, maintaining just - in - time procurement at low prices [4] - **Supply**: Last week, the soda ash output was 721,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, a decline of 1.91%. The output of light soda ash was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was 390,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.74%, down 1.61% from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. Although the new capacity of Alxa Phase II was put into production recently, the overall industry operating rate has been adjusted down, and the short - term supply pressure has been slightly relieved [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic manufacturers was 1.5004 million tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 0.07%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 729,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 771,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons [4] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash is relatively stable, while the overall situation of heavy soda ash downstream is weak. In the short term, the production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the overall rigid demand fluctuates little. However, there is still an expectation of glass cold repair at the end of the month, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash may weaken [4] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the combined - soda process was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 66.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt remained stable, and the price of thermal coal continued to decline, weakening the cost support [5]