Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, silver has fallen from the oscillation platform, copper's price decline is limited by the reduction of domestic inventory, zinc's price stabilizes with fundamental support, lead's price decline is restricted by inventory reduction, tin recovers partially after a decline, aluminum experiences significant oscillations due to market panic, alumina is supported by cost, casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, platinum's sector is under significant pressure, a pessimistic view on palladium is maintained, nickel is pressured by macro - risk preference while the contradiction at the mine end limits the downward elasticity, and stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment with real - cost support [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of gold and silver futures and spot have declined. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,062.00, with a daily decline of 4.63%; the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18,023, with a daily decline of 9.69%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures have changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of gold and silver has changed, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have also changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was 0.39, unchanged from the previous day, and the spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 decreased by 10 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The UK and European central banks kept interest rates unchanged and warned of inflation risks. The Japanese central bank also kept interest rates unchanged. Israel and the US tried to ease energy - market anxiety, and the US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf [4][6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 94,420, with a daily decline of 4.25%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Copper and London Copper have increased [7]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 12,244 tons, and the inventory of London Copper increased by 1,325 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf. Zambia plans to triple its copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in the US. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,705, with a daily decline of 2.66%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc have changed [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 1,341 tons, and the inventory of London Zinc decreased by 175 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [10]. - **News**: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time, and the bond market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has changed [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,415, with a daily decline of 1.41%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Lead and London Lead have changed [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 5,113 tons, and the inventory of London Lead decreased by 125 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [13]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf, and China's relevant departments emphasized maintaining the stability of the financial market [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 345,730, with a daily decline of 6.61%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Tin and London Tin have changed [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 1,037 tons, and the inventory of London Tin decreased by 10 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US has no plan to ban oil and gas exports, and Trump asked Israel not to attack Iranian energy facilities [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy futures have changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,180, with a decrease of 620 compared to the previous day. The trading volume and positions of each variety have also changed [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy has changed, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have also changed [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and Israel will suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have declined. For example, the closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 506.95, with a decline of 7.49%. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium have changed [22]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory and spreads of platinum and palladium have changed [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The interest - rate futures market has priced in a very small Fed rate - cut this year and has started to bet on rate hikes. Israel will suspend attacks on Iranian gas fields [24][25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,550, with a decrease of 3,650 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,855, with a decrease of 165 compared to the previous day. The trading volume and positions of nickel and stainless steel have changed [26]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains have changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,087, with a decrease of 6 compared to the previous day [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore products, and some nickel - mine operations in different regions have changed, such as the restart of a nickel - mine in Guatemala and the suspension of operations due to a landslide in Indonesia [26][27][30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it's oscillating with a slight upward trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns about US tariffs are driving the dollar index down and leading to a rebound in gold prices [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it's expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the improvement in macro - risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction are driving up copper prices [1][5]. 3) Summary by Each Variety Gold (AU) - **View**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate with a slight upward trend; Recommended: wait and see [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas gold prices have reached around $3350, and domestic ones are approaching 780 yuan. The rising short - term interest rate cut expectations and concerns about US tariffs, along with the weakening dollar index, have led to a rebound in gold prices. The US small non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the focus is on today's non - farm data. The market risk appetite remains high, and attention should be paid to the long - short game around the 60 - day moving average [3]. Copper (CU) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday: rise; Recommended: be bullish in the short - term [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The copper price has been rising, with the night - session main contract approaching 81,000 yuan and the open interest at 600,000 lots. The rise is mainly macro - driven, including the improvement in global risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising Fed interest rate cut expectations, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction. Technically, the copper price has strong upward momentum after breaking through 80,000 yuan, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, with short - term decline and mid - term oscillation. The core logic is the easing of geopolitical conflicts and significant technical pressure on gold prices. Also, market pricing of the Iran - Israel cease - fire and changes in interest - rate cut expectations impact the price [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is strong, with both short - term and mid - term upward trends. The core logic is the improvement of market risk appetite at the macro level and the strong overseas copper premium and continuous inventory reduction at the industrial level [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded. The market has fully priced in the short - term Iran - Israel cease - fire, leading to a market correction [3]. - **Market Factors**: The recent increase in market interest - rate cut expectations and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index provide strong support for the gold price. The probability of three interest rate cuts within the year exceeds 50% according to FedWatch Tool data [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The domestic gold price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions may increase. The overseas gold price is near the 60 - day moving average, with significant differences between bulls and bears. Focus on the 3300 - dollar long - short game of London gold and New York gold [3]. - **Ratio Trend**: The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the copper price continued to oscillate below 80,000, with a slight decrease in the position volume and an increase in the willingness of long - sellers to close positions [5]. - **Macro Factors**: After the Iran - Israel cease - fire last week, market risk appetite improved, causing a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The market cooled down on Monday [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: The overseas LME copper premium has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper spot. The domestic Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory is 123,500 tons, a reduction of 8,400 tons from last week, and the downstream replenishment willingness is strong [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in macro risk appetite, with SC crude oil futures leading the commodity market [1] - Multiple factors are driving the increase in oil prices, indicating a complex market environment [1] - There is an ongoing observation of the pressure from production cuts, suggesting that the lower boundary for oil prices is still under scrutiny [1] Group 2 - Short-term opportunities for oil prices to challenge upper resistance levels are anticipated, influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [1]