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宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250703
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:28
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025 年 7 月 3 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温,利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升,铜价上行 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:观望 核心逻辑:近期金价维持强势运行,海外金价拉升至 3350 美元一线,国内 ...
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250701
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, with short - term decline and mid - term oscillation. The core logic is the easing of geopolitical conflicts and significant technical pressure on gold prices. Also, market pricing of the Iran - Israel cease - fire and changes in interest - rate cut expectations impact the price [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is strong, with both short - term and mid - term upward trends. The core logic is the improvement of market risk appetite at the macro level and the strong overseas copper premium and continuous inventory reduction at the industrial level [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded. The market has fully priced in the short - term Iran - Israel cease - fire, leading to a market correction [3]. - **Market Factors**: The recent increase in market interest - rate cut expectations and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index provide strong support for the gold price. The probability of three interest rate cuts within the year exceeds 50% according to FedWatch Tool data [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The domestic gold price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions may increase. The overseas gold price is near the 60 - day moving average, with significant differences between bulls and bears. Focus on the 3300 - dollar long - short game of London gold and New York gold [3]. - **Ratio Trend**: The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the copper price continued to oscillate below 80,000, with a slight decrease in the position volume and an increase in the willingness of long - sellers to close positions [5]. - **Macro Factors**: After the Iran - Israel cease - fire last week, market risk appetite improved, causing a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The market cooled down on Monday [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: The overseas LME copper premium has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper spot. The domestic Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory is 123,500 tons, a reduction of 8,400 tons from last week, and the downstream replenishment willingness is strong [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5].
【期货热点追踪】宏观风险偏好回升,SC原油期货领涨期市,机构分析表示,多因素推动油价上涨,减产底区间压力有待观察,短期内油价仍有机会在地缘宏观等因素配合下冲击上档阻力区域。
news flash· 2025-06-09 03:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in macro risk appetite, with SC crude oil futures leading the commodity market [1] - Multiple factors are driving the increase in oil prices, indicating a complex market environment [1] - There is an ongoing observation of the pressure from production cuts, suggesting that the lower boundary for oil prices is still under scrutiny [1] Group 2 - Short-term opportunities for oil prices to challenge upper resistance levels are anticipated, influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [1]