Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it's oscillating with a slight upward trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns about US tariffs are driving the dollar index down and leading to a rebound in gold prices [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it's expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the improvement in macro - risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction are driving up copper prices [1][5]. 3) Summary by Each Variety Gold (AU) - **View**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate with a slight upward trend; Recommended: wait and see [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas gold prices have reached around $3350, and domestic ones are approaching 780 yuan. The rising short - term interest rate cut expectations and concerns about US tariffs, along with the weakening dollar index, have led to a rebound in gold prices. The US small non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the focus is on today's non - farm data. The market risk appetite remains high, and attention should be paid to the long - short game around the 60 - day moving average [3]. Copper (CU) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday: rise; Recommended: be bullish in the short - term [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The copper price has been rising, with the night - session main contract approaching 81,000 yuan and the open interest at 600,000 lots. The rise is mainly macro - driven, including the improvement in global risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising Fed interest rate cut expectations, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction. Technically, the copper price has strong upward momentum after breaking through 80,000 yuan, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, with short - term decline and mid - term oscillation. The core logic is the easing of geopolitical conflicts and significant technical pressure on gold prices. Also, market pricing of the Iran - Israel cease - fire and changes in interest - rate cut expectations impact the price [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is strong, with both short - term and mid - term upward trends. The core logic is the improvement of market risk appetite at the macro level and the strong overseas copper premium and continuous inventory reduction at the industrial level [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded. The market has fully priced in the short - term Iran - Israel cease - fire, leading to a market correction [3]. - **Market Factors**: The recent increase in market interest - rate cut expectations and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index provide strong support for the gold price. The probability of three interest rate cuts within the year exceeds 50% according to FedWatch Tool data [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The domestic gold price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions may increase. The overseas gold price is near the 60 - day moving average, with significant differences between bulls and bears. Focus on the 3300 - dollar long - short game of London gold and New York gold [3]. - **Ratio Trend**: The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the copper price continued to oscillate below 80,000, with a slight decrease in the position volume and an increase in the willingness of long - sellers to close positions [5]. - **Macro Factors**: After the Iran - Israel cease - fire last week, market risk appetite improved, causing a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The market cooled down on Monday [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: The overseas LME copper premium has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper spot. The domestic Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory is 123,500 tons, a reduction of 8,400 tons from last week, and the downstream replenishment willingness is strong [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in macro risk appetite, with SC crude oil futures leading the commodity market [1] - Multiple factors are driving the increase in oil prices, indicating a complex market environment [1] - There is an ongoing observation of the pressure from production cuts, suggesting that the lower boundary for oil prices is still under scrutiny [1] Group 2 - Short-term opportunities for oil prices to challenge upper resistance levels are anticipated, influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [1]