Core Viewpoint - Nomura's chief economist Andrew Ticehurst expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to announce a hold on the official cash rate, likely with unanimous support, indicating a shift towards a less dovish stance compared to August's communication [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data shows stronger GDP growth, a low unemployment rate, and signs of rising inflation [1] - The RBA's forecast suggests a quarter-on-quarter increase in core CPI of approximately 0.65% for Q3 and Q4, while Ticehurst anticipates a higher increase of 0.95% for Q3 [1]

Group 1 - The official cash rate in New Zealand is 3.25%, matching both the expected and previous values [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the official cash rate in New Zealand will be influenced by further data on the speed of economic recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impact of tariffs [1] Economic Recovery - The speed of economic recovery in New Zealand is a critical factor that will affect monetary policy decisions [1] Inflation Persistence - Ongoing inflation trends will play a significant role in determining the future direction of interest rates [1] Tariff Impact - The effects of tariffs on the economy will also be a key consideration for the New Zealand central bank in its assessment of the official cash rate [1]

新西兰联储：委员会讨论了本次会议的两种选项，一是将官方现金利率（OCR）下调25个基点至3%， 二是维持官方现金利率在3.25%不变。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand advocates for maintaining the official cash rate unchanged, highlighting a high level of uncertainty [1] - Recent inflation risks have been noted, suggesting that waiting until August may provide benefits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) anticipates further reductions in the official cash rate if mid-term inflationary pressures continue to ease as expected [1] Group 1 - The RBNZ's outlook suggests a proactive approach to monetary policy in response to inflation trends [1] - The expectation of lower cash rates indicates a potential shift in the economic environment, which could influence investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - ASB Bank of New Zealand now expects the official cash rate set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to drop to a low of 3% [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a significant reduction in the cash rate, reflecting a shift in monetary policy [1] - This adjustment may impact borrowing costs and economic activity within New Zealand [1] - The anticipated rate cut aligns with broader economic trends and expectations for future inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, indicating potential for further rate cuts to support economic recovery impacted by U.S. tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The RBNZ's current interest rate is in a neutral range, with expectations to reach 3.12% by September 2025, down from a previous forecast of 3.23% [1] - By June 2026, the cash rate is projected to be 2.87%, revised from 3.1%, and is expected to remain at 3.1% by June 2028 [1] - The RBNZ suggests there is room for at least another 25 basis points cut in the official cash rate [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Economic recovery in New Zealand is under threat due to increased tariffs and uncertainty in overseas policies, which may slow down the recovery and reduce mid-term inflation pressures [2] - The RBNZ acknowledges that the full economic impact of rate cuts made since August of the previous year has yet to be realized [2] - Analysts indicate that while the RBNZ may consider further rate cuts, the timing may not align with market expectations [2] Group 3: Inflation Outlook - New Zealand's core inflation rate is declining and is expected to reach an annual CPI of 1.9% by June 2026, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2% [1] - The current situation suggests that inflation may return to the mid-point of the target range of 1% to 3% in the medium term [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand government bond yields have risen further following indications from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is now in a neutral range [1] Group 1 - The increase in bond yields reflects market reactions to the Reserve Bank's assessment of the OCR [1] - The Reserve Bank's statement suggests a shift in monetary policy stance, impacting investor expectations [1] - The neutral OCR indicates a balance between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation, influencing bond market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant uncertainty, as highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Chair, Hawkesby [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The trajectory of the official cash rate reflects that global inflation is not as high as previously thought [1] - Future interest rate decisions will be contingent on evolving circumstances [1]