Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the historical trend of deposit migration, highlighting a shift from resident fixed deposits to non-bank and corporate demand deposits, driven by a loose monetary policy environment and the recovery of the real economy [4][12] - The report identifies two significant periods of deposit migration in the past 20 years, occurring from January 2009 to August 2011 and from March 2015 to January 2018, where the proportion of resident fixed deposits decreased significantly [12][35] - Future deposit migration trends will depend on the pace of economic recovery, with current indicators showing initial signs of deposit migration as resident demand deposits and M1 growth rates increase [4][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Decline in Resident Fixed Deposit Proportion - Recent months have seen a decline in resident fixed deposits, with a corresponding increase in non-bank deposits, indicating a potential shift in deposit behavior [4][10] - As of November 2025, the proportion of resident fixed deposits is 36.98%, down 0.56 percentage points from the peak in April 2025, while non-bank deposits have increased by 1.13 percentage points to 10.68% [10][11] Section 2: Historical Review of Deposit Migration - The report reviews the historical context of deposit migration, noting two major phases: the first from January 2009 to August 2011, and the second from March 2015 to January 2018, where fixed deposit proportions fell significantly [12][35] - During these periods, the share of corporate demand deposits and non-bank deposits increased markedly, indicating a structural shift in deposit behavior [21][35] Section 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of deposit migration is contingent on the recovery of the real economy, with current monetary policy supporting a favorable environment for such shifts [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and the impact of monetary policy on deposit behavior, suggesting that the current trends may lead to sustained changes in deposit structures [4][12]

Group 1: Credit Bond Market Overview - The credit bond market is expected to maintain slight growth in scale, with a structure continuing from 2025, primarily focusing on industrial bonds supplemented by urban investment bonds [6][16] - The supply side is driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing "technological self-reliance," leading to an increased probability of expansion for technology innovation bonds [6][16] - The demand side is anticipated to remain stable overall, but structural changes may occur due to regulatory constraints affecting major buyers, potentially leading to weakened or more volatile demand [6][22] Group 2: Urban Investment Bonds Outlook - The urban investment bond sector is expected to continue facing a "zero tolerance" regulatory environment, maintaining a tight balance in financing, with a focus on debt resolution and market-oriented transformation [6][28] - The strategy for urban investment bonds suggests prioritizing regions with strong local financial resources and successful debt resolution progress, with a focus on extending durations for certain bonds [6][28] - The supply of urban investment bonds is projected to remain limited, with a significant reduction in issuance and net financing, reflecting ongoing regulatory pressures [6][28] Group 3: Industrial Bonds Outlook - The industrial bond sector is expected to maintain a stable issuance pace, with financing capabilities improving as the real economy gradually recovers [7][10] - Demand for industrial bonds is driven by new supply and spillover effects from other sectors, with certain industries like transportation and construction attracting institutional investors due to higher valuation ranges [7][10] Group 4: Perpetual Bonds Outlook - The perpetual bond market is likely to see a slight contraction in new issuance, as banks have less need to issue new perpetual bonds due to improved capital adequacy ratios [10][22] - Demand for perpetual bonds may weaken as institutional investors face challenges in adjusting their investment strategies amid regulatory changes [10][22] Group 5: Credit Expansion Signals and Fundamental Recovery - The overall credit expansion remains limited compared to pre-pandemic levels, with a structural rather than a broad recovery observed across different industries [10][22] - Industries such as electronics and public utilities show signs of credit expansion, while sectors like real estate and food and beverage are experiencing credit contraction [10][22]