Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has created a tense atmosphere in the market, with gold surpassing $4,526 per ounce and silver reaching $75 per ounce, leading to rapid re-evaluation of positions by traders [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The price increase is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical uncertainties, a temporary weakening of the dollar, and expectations of declining real interest rates, which have disrupted traditional asset allocation models [5]. - The demand for silver from industrial sectors such as photovoltaics and electronics is increasing, raising concerns about supply chain bottlenecks and inventory adjustments [5][9]. Regulatory Environment - Exchanges and public funds are facing dual constraints: physical limits on positions imposed by exchanges and prohibitions on high leverage by public funds, creating a complex situation where relaxing purchase limits could lead to default risks [3][5]. - Notifications from exchanges urging members to strengthen risk management highlight the regulatory focus on position limits and compliance issues [3]. Investor Behavior - Ordinary investors exhibit polarized views, with some seeing gold as a safe haven while others fear a potential bubble, reflecting broader anxieties about household finances [5][9]. - Experts advise investors to focus on asset allocation and risk management, emphasizing the importance of understanding personal investment experience and financial needs [7]. Supply Chain Implications - Businesses are considering delaying inventory replenishment or switching to alternative materials due to compressed profit margins, which could amplify changes in the entire supply chain and impact gold and silver prices [7][9]. - The logistics capabilities of major banks are being expanded to capture profit opportunities from liquidity and settlement capabilities, indicating a shift in market participant risk preferences [7].

Core Viewpoint - The medium-term outlook for gold prices is expected to rise, supported by two main factors: the anticipated decline in real interest rates and the continuous accumulation of gold by major central banks since 2018 [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a decline in real interest rates is a significant factor supporting the upward trend in gold prices [1] - Major central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves since 2018, which further supports the bullish outlook for gold [1]