Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pork price is expected to rise due to limited supply before the New Year, with the average price of live pigs at 11.43 yuan/kg as of December 12, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.22 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 4.33% [12][13] - The beef market is showing signs of a bullish cycle, with the wholesale price of beef at 66.24 yuan/kg, up 10.22% year-on-year, and calf prices at 32.23 yuan/kg, up 33.68% year-on-year [24] - The pig farming sector is facing accelerated losses, leading to a potential increase in the pace of pig culling, while the pet sector is benefiting from domestic brand growth due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [27][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The cold wave is boosting pork consumption as the pickled meat season approaches, with limited supply expected before the New Year [12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 129.63 kg, with a decrease in the proportion of smallholder sales [12][13] Weekly Market Performance (Dec 8-12) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.26 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34% and the agricultural index down 0.08% [32] - Leading stocks included *ST Zhengbang (+19.40%), Biological Shares (+17.16%), and Luoniushan (+13.73%) [32][39] Price Tracking (Dec 8-12) - The average price of live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, up 2.50% week-on-week, while the price of piglets was 19.04 yuan/kg, down 1.14% [41] - The average price of beef was 66.13 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease [48] Key News (Dec 8-12) - China's soybean imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 104 million tons, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, with a price drop of 10.7% [40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]