| | 3、仔猪数量来看，2025年1-9月新生仔猪数量环比持续增加（仅7月环比下降），对 | | --- | --- | | | 应今年3月前生猪出栏头数仍呈增加趋势；2025年10、11、12月新生仔猪连续3个月 | | | 环比下降，分别下降1%、0.8%、1.2%，对应今年4月起供给压力有所缓解。 | | | 4、体重来看，生猪出栏体重环比继续回落。截至2月5日生猪出栏均重为124.27公斤 | | | ，较前一周减少0.23公斤，环比降幅扩大。 | | | 5、肥标价差来看，2月6日生猪肥标价差为0.47元/斤，较前一日持平。 | | | 6、仓单数量来看，2月6日生猪期货仓单较前一日增减0手，共计647手。 | | | 7、2月6日农业农村部发布 "关于落实《中共中央国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 | | | 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》的实施意见"，文件提及'强化生猪产能综合调控 | | | ，对头部生猪养殖企业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促 | | | 进市场供需更加适配。 | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | 短期来看，本周进入春节前集中备货阶段，养殖端积极出栏，生猪市场 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 场价格震荡略偏弱运行。盘面上，生猪2605合约收跌0.09%，技术性调整，上方均线压力较大。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 生猪产业日报 2026-02-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11685 | -50 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 144469 | -1506 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 647 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -49411 | 910 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12300 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12100 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 12100 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 615 | 50 | | 上游情况 | 全国:生猪存栏(月 ...

（来源：饲料行业信息网） 来源：饲料行业信息网 2026一号文件部署畜牧业路径：强化生猪产能综合调控 2026年中央一号文件正式发布，指明我国畜牧业实施路径。与2025年相比，今年文件中明确"促进'菜篮 子'产业提质增效"，并对生猪、奶业提出针对性措施。 生猪：产能调控从"监测调控"走向"综合调控" 对比2025年一号文件，2026年生猪政策从"做好生猪产能监测和调控，促进平稳发展"过渡为"强化生猪 产能综合调控"。 回顾2025年，国内生猪供应充裕，行业仍面临产能过剩。Choice数据监测显示，截至2025年12月31日， 全国生猪均价为12.13元/公斤，2024年12月31日为15.72元/公斤，年内跌幅达到23%。 在此背景下，农业农村部多次召集会议，明确调减100万头能繁母猪产能的目标，并配套出台了严禁二 次育肥、控制出栏体重等精细化措施。头部养殖企业牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)纷纷 响应，在2025年底，牧原股份能繁母猪已降至323万头。 不过生猪养殖周期较长，当前产能调减的效果预计最快在2026年第二季度才开始体现在市场供给端。 中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所 ...

场价格震荡略偏弱运行。盘面上，市场情绪受到短暂提振，生猪2605合约技术性调整，收涨0.95%，不过 上方技术阻力较大，且基本面利好有限，预计反弹空间有限。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2026-02-04 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11735 | 575 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 145975 | 53734 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the livestock industry in agriculture and outlines the 2026 Central Document's focus on "precise regulation, diversified supply, and supporting upgrades" to achieve a balance between supply and demand and promote healthy development [1][2] - The document highlights the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, indicating that policies will not only focus on the traditional metric of breeding sow inventory but will also utilize various methods such as adjusting import and export trade, optimizing storage policies, and guiding consumer markets [1][2] - The article notes that as of the end of December 2025, the breeding sow inventory is 39.61 million, slightly above the normal level of 39 million, suggesting that there is still room for capacity reduction [2] Group 2 - The current low prices of agricultural products present a significant opportunity for systematic structural adjustments in the industry, which can help avoid market volatility and enhance the industry's adaptability to policies [2] - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes the importance of joint prevention and control of major animal diseases, proposing a more systematic and comprehensive approach to food safety that covers the entire supply chain from feed and veterinary drugs to breeding, slaughtering, processing, and sales [3] - The document also calls for the diversification of agricultural product imports and the cultivation of internationally competitive agricultural enterprises, setting a new direction for the livestock industry focused on "quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, supply-demand balance, and high-quality development" [3]

Group 1 - In November, the national pork price was 23.05 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, while the national live pig price was 12.55 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% month-on-month [1][3] - The average daily market supply of white strip pigs in Beijing's Xinfadi market was 2,128.8 heads, an increase of 10.57% compared to October, leading to the highest pork supply level this year and prices at a low point compared to the same period in the last five years [3] - Continuous decline in pork and live pig prices for four consecutive weeks in November indicates a weak demand during the peak season, with southern regions experiencing delayed and scattered consumption [5] Group 2 - As of the end of October, the number of breeding sows nationwide was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, marking a significant reduction from the peak last year [7] - The slaughter volume of live pigs in designated enterprises increased by 7.0% month-on-month and 26.2% year-on-year in October, continuing a trend of over 35 million heads for two consecutive months, with November expected to maintain this growth [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese pig market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices continuing to decline despite the traditional peak consumption season in November [1][2][6] - The primary reason for the low prices is an oversupply in the market, driven by increased breeding and improved farming efficiency, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [6][9][15] Price Trends - The average price of pork in Shandong province dropped to 22.36 yuan per kilogram in mid-November, a decrease of 22.28% year-on-year and 0.40% month-on-month [1][3] - The average selling price for fat pigs fell to 12.11 yuan per kilogram, down 26.56% year-on-year and 1.06% month-on-month [1][3] Market Conditions - The supply of pork is currently abundant, with a notable increase in the number of breeding sows and improved production techniques contributing to the surplus [5][6] - The demand for pork has weakened, partly due to changing consumer preferences among younger generations who favor alternative meats and fast food options [6][7][9] Industry Challenges - Small and medium-sized pig farmers are facing severe financial difficulties, with many unable to cover their production costs, leading to a significant number exiting the market [3][6] - Larger farming operations are also struggling, with reports of losses exceeding 200 yuan per pig sold due to high production costs [3][6] Strategic Responses - Some farmers are adapting by shifting to niche markets, such as breeding specialty pigs, which can command higher prices despite longer growth periods [10][12] - Others are focusing on improving quality and efficiency through better feed management and diversifying their operations to mitigate risks [10][12][14] Government and Policy Actions - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is actively working on policies to stabilize pig production and improve market conditions, including comprehensive capacity regulation [15] - Recommendations include supporting small-scale farms, enhancing breeding quality, and promoting sustainable practices within the industry [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, pig prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors; in the medium - term, pig prices are likely to decline rather than rise under high supply pressure; in the long - term, as capacity optimization progresses, the supply - demand relationship will improve, and far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction. Currently, the supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and although demand increases with the drop in temperature, it cannot offset the supply increase. The oversupply situation is difficult to improve quickly, and pig prices may remain under pressure with the futures market likely to oscillate at a low level. Key factors to monitor include the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, terminal consumption, pig weight reduction, pig slaughter, and secondary fattening [8][115][116]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: In November 2025, the main contract of live - hog futures LH2601 traded between 11,300 - 12,050 yuan/ton. It rose slightly, then declined and rebounded, showing a wide - range oscillation with a significant monthly decline. As of November 28, 2025, the contract dropped 350 yuan/ton, a 2.96% decrease, closing at 11,465 yuan/ton [6][12]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the national average live - hog price was 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous month, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of November 28, 2025, the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of piglets was 24.14 yuan/kg, down 0.99 yuan/kg from the previous month. The prices of 20 - kg foreign - bred ternary piglets in some regions increased slightly compared to the previous month [16][20][24]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live - hog supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 13,929 thousand heads; the global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 505 thousand tons [31]. - **China**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live - hog supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 11,781 thousand heads; the pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 592 thousand tons [38]. Supply - Side Situation - **Live - Hog Inventory**: As of September 2025, the national live - hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, at a historically low level [44]. - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national breeding sows inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, at the lowest level in the past five years [49]. - **Live - Hog Slaughter**: In the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live - hog slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.85%, at a relatively high level in the past five years [54]. - **Pork Output**: As of the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 3.02%, at the highest level in the past five years [60]. - **Pork Imports**: In September 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 70 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%, at the lowest level in the past five years [64]. Demand - Side Situation - **Slaughter Volume of Designated Slaughter Enterprises**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of China's designated live - hog slaughter enterprises was 38.34 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million heads or 6.98%, at the highest level in the past five years [70]. - **Pork and Main Meat Output**: As of September 30, 2025, the national cumulative output of main meats was 731.2 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 436.8 million tons, accounting for 59.74% [74]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.43 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month; the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.29 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of October 2025, the feed output was 29.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, at the highest level in the past five years [77][83]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - **Profit from Purchasing Piglets for Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 248.82 yuan per head, at the lowest level in the past five years [89]. - **Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 147.99 yuan per head, at a relatively low level in the past five years [95]. - **Profit from Broiler Chicken Breeding**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 0.86 yuan per bird, at an intermediate level in the past five years [100]. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of November 28, 2025, China's pig - grain ratio was 5.1. The pig - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 recently, triggering a second - level early warning of excessive price decline, and the state has carried out multiple state reserve operations [105]. Recent Policies and Conferences in the Pig Industry - **Stable Livestock Production Promotion Meeting**: Held from November 18 - 19, 2025, in Bengbu, Anhui. It emphasized ensuring market stability of major livestock products, accelerating the comprehensive regulation of live - hog production capacity, preventing and controlling epidemic risks, and strengthening quality and safety supervision [108][109]. - **Executive Meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs**: On November 21, 2025, it passed in principle the "Opinions on Strengthening Comprehensive Capacity Regulation to Promote High - Quality Development of the Pig Industry", aiming to build a high - quality development pattern of the pig industry, improve competitiveness across the chain, and guide enterprises of different scales to develop [110]. Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Price**: In November 2025, the national average live - hog price increased slightly from the previous month, the price of binary sows remained unchanged, and the price of piglets decreased slightly [111]. - **Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025, but the actual capacity reduction was slower than expected, and the supply pressure remained. However, national policies are conducive to the long - term market. The decline in the inventory of breeding sows in October indicates accelerated capacity reduction, supporting far - month contracts [113]. - **Inventory**: Recently, the low pork price and seasonal demand led to an increase in the product digestion of slaughterhouses, but the slow start of seasonal demand such as curing caused inventory to shift from the breeding end to the slaughter end. However, slaughterhouses are actively reducing inventory before the Spring Festival, so the inventory may decline slightly [113]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises increased. With the drop in temperature, consumption demand recovered to some extent, but it may not be sufficient to digest the supply [114]. - **Cost - Profit**: In November 2025, the breeding profit continued to decline, and the pig - breeding industry fell into deep losses [114]. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main live - hog contract will oscillate in a low - level range in December. For unilateral trading, consider going long at low prices with a light position; for arbitrage, maintain the idea of reverse arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [9][117][118].

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture (02419) experienced a significant stock price increase, attributed to government policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing the quality of the pig industry [1] Company Summary - Dekang Agriculture's stock rose over 6% in early trading, currently at 77.15 HKD with a trading volume of 34.26 million HKD [1] - The company has a competitive advantage in breeding costs, ranking among the top in profitability per head among listed pig companies [1] - Dekang's light asset model has allowed the company to improve its profitability, transitioning from catching up to surpassing competitors [1] Industry Summary - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss comprehensive capacity regulation to promote high-quality development in the pig industry [1] - The meeting emphasized the need for dynamic supply-demand matching and collaborative enhancement of the industry chain [1] - Analysts predict that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices will lead to increased regulatory efforts on industry capacity, benefiting cost-efficient and community-oriented companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the positive market response to Dekang Agriculture (02419) following a government meeting aimed at enhancing the quality development of the pig industry through comprehensive capacity regulation [1] Company Summary - Dekang Agriculture's stock rose over 6% in early trading, currently at 77.15 HKD with a trading volume of 34.26 million HKD [1] - The company is recognized for its significant cost advantages in pig farming, particularly in the southwestern region of China, positioning it among the top tier in terms of per-head profitability among listed pig farming companies [1] - The company's light asset model has allowed it to improve its profitability, transitioning from catching up to surpassing competitors [1] Industry Summary - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China is focused on strengthening comprehensive capacity regulation to promote high-quality development in the pig industry [1] - There is a strong commitment to maintaining stable pig prices, with expectations of increased regulatory efforts on industry capacity [1] - The operational variance within the industry suggests that companies with cost advantages and strong community ties are likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [1]