Group 1 - In November, the national pork price was 23.05 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, while the national live pig price was 12.55 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% month-on-month [1][3] - The average daily market supply of white strip pigs in Beijing's Xinfadi market was 2,128.8 heads, an increase of 10.57% compared to October, leading to the highest pork supply level this year and prices at a low point compared to the same period in the last five years [3] - Continuous decline in pork and live pig prices for four consecutive weeks in November indicates a weak demand during the peak season, with southern regions experiencing delayed and scattered consumption [5] Group 2 - As of the end of October, the number of breeding sows nationwide was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, marking a significant reduction from the peak last year [7] - The slaughter volume of live pigs in designated enterprises increased by 7.0% month-on-month and 26.2% year-on-year in October, continuing a trend of over 35 million heads for two consecutive months, with November expected to maintain this growth [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese pig market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices continuing to decline despite the traditional peak consumption season in November [1][2][6] - The primary reason for the low prices is an oversupply in the market, driven by increased breeding and improved farming efficiency, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [6][9][15] Price Trends - The average price of pork in Shandong province dropped to 22.36 yuan per kilogram in mid-November, a decrease of 22.28% year-on-year and 0.40% month-on-month [1][3] - The average selling price for fat pigs fell to 12.11 yuan per kilogram, down 26.56% year-on-year and 1.06% month-on-month [1][3] Market Conditions - The supply of pork is currently abundant, with a notable increase in the number of breeding sows and improved production techniques contributing to the surplus [5][6] - The demand for pork has weakened, partly due to changing consumer preferences among younger generations who favor alternative meats and fast food options [6][7][9] Industry Challenges - Small and medium-sized pig farmers are facing severe financial difficulties, with many unable to cover their production costs, leading to a significant number exiting the market [3][6] - Larger farming operations are also struggling, with reports of losses exceeding 200 yuan per pig sold due to high production costs [3][6] Strategic Responses - Some farmers are adapting by shifting to niche markets, such as breeding specialty pigs, which can command higher prices despite longer growth periods [10][12] - Others are focusing on improving quality and efficiency through better feed management and diversifying their operations to mitigate risks [10][12][14] Government and Policy Actions - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is actively working on policies to stabilize pig production and improve market conditions, including comprehensive capacity regulation [15] - Recommendations include supporting small-scale farms, enhancing breeding quality, and promoting sustainable practices within the industry [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, pig prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors; in the medium - term, pig prices are likely to decline rather than rise under high supply pressure; in the long - term, as capacity optimization progresses, the supply - demand relationship will improve, and far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction. Currently, the supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and although demand increases with the drop in temperature, it cannot offset the supply increase. The oversupply situation is difficult to improve quickly, and pig prices may remain under pressure with the futures market likely to oscillate at a low level. Key factors to monitor include the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, terminal consumption, pig weight reduction, pig slaughter, and secondary fattening [8][115][116]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: In November 2025, the main contract of live - hog futures LH2601 traded between 11,300 - 12,050 yuan/ton. It rose slightly, then declined and rebounded, showing a wide - range oscillation with a significant monthly decline. As of November 28, 2025, the contract dropped 350 yuan/ton, a 2.96% decrease, closing at 11,465 yuan/ton [6][12]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the national average live - hog price was 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous month, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of November 28, 2025, the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of piglets was 24.14 yuan/kg, down 0.99 yuan/kg from the previous month. The prices of 20 - kg foreign - bred ternary piglets in some regions increased slightly compared to the previous month [16][20][24]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live - hog supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 13,929 thousand heads; the global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 505 thousand tons [31]. - **China**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live - hog supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 11,781 thousand heads; the pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 592 thousand tons [38]. Supply - Side Situation - **Live - Hog Inventory**: As of September 2025, the national live - hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, at a historically low level [44]. - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national breeding sows inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, at the lowest level in the past five years [49]. - **Live - Hog Slaughter**: In the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live - hog slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.85%, at a relatively high level in the past five years [54]. - **Pork Output**: As of the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 3.02%, at the highest level in the past five years [60]. - **Pork Imports**: In September 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 70 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%, at the lowest level in the past five years [64]. Demand - Side Situation - **Slaughter Volume of Designated Slaughter Enterprises**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of China's designated live - hog slaughter enterprises was 38.34 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million heads or 6.98%, at the highest level in the past five years [70]. - **Pork and Main Meat Output**: As of September 30, 2025, the national cumulative output of main meats was 731.2 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 436.8 million tons, accounting for 59.74% [74]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.43 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month; the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.29 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of October 2025, the feed output was 29.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, at the highest level in the past five years [77][83]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - **Profit from Purchasing Piglets for Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 248.82 yuan per head, at the lowest level in the past five years [89]. - **Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 147.99 yuan per head, at a relatively low level in the past five years [95]. - **Profit from Broiler Chicken Breeding**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 0.86 yuan per bird, at an intermediate level in the past five years [100]. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of November 28, 2025, China's pig - grain ratio was 5.1. The pig - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 recently, triggering a second - level early warning of excessive price decline, and the state has carried out multiple state reserve operations [105]. Recent Policies and Conferences in the Pig Industry - **Stable Livestock Production Promotion Meeting**: Held from November 18 - 19, 2025, in Bengbu, Anhui. It emphasized ensuring market stability of major livestock products, accelerating the comprehensive regulation of live - hog production capacity, preventing and controlling epidemic risks, and strengthening quality and safety supervision [108][109]. - **Executive Meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs**: On November 21, 2025, it passed in principle the "Opinions on Strengthening Comprehensive Capacity Regulation to Promote High - Quality Development of the Pig Industry", aiming to build a high - quality development pattern of the pig industry, improve competitiveness across the chain, and guide enterprises of different scales to develop [110]. Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Price**: In November 2025, the national average live - hog price increased slightly from the previous month, the price of binary sows remained unchanged, and the price of piglets decreased slightly [111]. - **Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025, but the actual capacity reduction was slower than expected, and the supply pressure remained. However, national policies are conducive to the long - term market. The decline in the inventory of breeding sows in October indicates accelerated capacity reduction, supporting far - month contracts [113]. - **Inventory**: Recently, the low pork price and seasonal demand led to an increase in the product digestion of slaughterhouses, but the slow start of seasonal demand such as curing caused inventory to shift from the breeding end to the slaughter end. However, slaughterhouses are actively reducing inventory before the Spring Festival, so the inventory may decline slightly [113]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises increased. With the drop in temperature, consumption demand recovered to some extent, but it may not be sufficient to digest the supply [114]. - **Cost - Profit**: In November 2025, the breeding profit continued to decline, and the pig - breeding industry fell into deep losses [114]. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main live - hog contract will oscillate in a low - level range in December. For unilateral trading, consider going long at low prices with a light position; for arbitrage, maintain the idea of reverse arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [9][117][118].

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture (02419) experienced a significant stock price increase, attributed to government policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing the quality of the pig industry [1] Company Summary - Dekang Agriculture's stock rose over 6% in early trading, currently at 77.15 HKD with a trading volume of 34.26 million HKD [1] - The company has a competitive advantage in breeding costs, ranking among the top in profitability per head among listed pig companies [1] - Dekang's light asset model has allowed the company to improve its profitability, transitioning from catching up to surpassing competitors [1] Industry Summary - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss comprehensive capacity regulation to promote high-quality development in the pig industry [1] - The meeting emphasized the need for dynamic supply-demand matching and collaborative enhancement of the industry chain [1] - Analysts predict that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices will lead to increased regulatory efforts on industry capacity, benefiting cost-efficient and community-oriented companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the positive market response to Dekang Agriculture (02419) following a government meeting aimed at enhancing the quality development of the pig industry through comprehensive capacity regulation [1] Company Summary - Dekang Agriculture's stock rose over 6% in early trading, currently at 77.15 HKD with a trading volume of 34.26 million HKD [1] - The company is recognized for its significant cost advantages in pig farming, particularly in the southwestern region of China, positioning it among the top tier in terms of per-head profitability among listed pig farming companies [1] - The company's light asset model has allowed it to improve its profitability, transitioning from catching up to surpassing competitors [1] Industry Summary - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China is focused on strengthening comprehensive capacity regulation to promote high-quality development in the pig industry [1] - There is a strong commitment to maintaining stable pig prices, with expectations of increased regulatory efforts on industry capacity [1] - The operational variance within the industry suggests that companies with cost advantages and strong community ties are likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity to establish a high-quality development pattern for the pig industry that aligns supply and demand dynamically, has a reasonable scale structure, and enhances industry chain collaboration [1][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of strengthening production and market monitoring and early warning systems, dynamically adjusting the target for the normal retention of breeding sows, and proactively implementing counter-cyclical adjustments to prevent significant fluctuations [3] - The meeting called for improving the competitiveness of the pig industry across the entire chain, establishing a modern pig breeding system, promoting grain-saving actions in farming, optimizing the layout of pig slaughtering and processing, and ensuring the regular prevention and control of major animal diseases such as African swine fever [3] Group 2 - The meeting discussed the implementation of the "Ten Million Project" experience to promote comprehensive rural revitalization, emphasizing the need for high-quality creation of national rural revitalization demonstration counties and timely summarization and promotion of local innovative explorations [2] - It was stressed that a strong leadership system and promotion mechanism should be established, with local governments treating rural revitalization as a key responsibility, ensuring accountability, supervision, and motivation mechanisms are in place [2] - The meeting also addressed the need for a tailored approach to rural construction implementation mechanisms, ensuring farmer participation and a bottom-up approach in the process [2]