Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $4207.46 per ounce after reaching a high of $4225.12 and a low of $4174.95 [1] Employment Data - In November, the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies dropped significantly by 53.4% to 71,321 from 153,074 in the previous month [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week were recorded at 191,000, the lowest since September 24, 2022, and below the market expectation of 220,000 [3] - The four-week moving average for jobless claims decreased to 214,700, influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday [3] - The number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 1.939 million, the lowest level since early October [3] - Revelio Labs reported an expected net decrease of approximately 9,000 jobs in November, with layoffs concentrated in retail, leisure, and manufacturing sectors [3] Federal Reserve Insights - A Reuters survey indicated that 82% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December to support a cooling labor market [4] - The survey reflects a strong consensus among economists, contrasting with the growing divergence among policymakers regarding the need for further easing in the global economy [4] - The median forecast suggests two additional rate cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00-3.25% by year-end [4] - The hiring intentions for the year have decreased by 35% compared to the same period in 2024, marking the lowest level of recruitment plans since 2010 [4] Market Expectations - According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13% [5] - The likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January is 64.1%, with a 27% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to maintain a short-term oscillating trend, with a focus on trading strategies that involve both long and short positions [8][10]

Economic Policy & Job Market - US Treasury Secretary mentioned economic policies will not be altered based on a single data point [1] - The report suggests that revised 2024 job figures may show a reduction of 800,000 jobs [1] - The report indicates that employment data supports the view that the Federal Reserve's actions were slow, as criticized by Trump [1]

Core Insights - The report from the Pew Research Center indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with over 1.2 million immigrant workers disappearing from the job market between January and July 2020, closely linked to the strict immigration policies of the Trump administration [1][3][5] Labor Market Impact - Immigrant workers, including those with legal work visas and undocumented individuals, play an essential role in various key industries in the U.S. [3] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor market, with significant representation in specific sectors: 45% in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and livestock; 30% in construction; and 24% in the service industry [3][5] Employment Contribution - Over the past decade, immigrants have contributed to more than 50% of new job creation in the U.S. However, the recent halt in immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border has caused a "systemic shock" to the country's job creation capacity [5][6] Sector-Specific Challenges - The agricultural sector is facing a labor shortage crisis due to increased immigration enforcement, leading to significant losses, such as tons of ripe fruit left unharvested in Florida [5][6] - The construction industry is experiencing job losses in nearly 50% of metropolitan areas, with California being particularly affected, losing 7,200 jobs in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area and 6,200 in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area [5][6] Future Concerns - The healthcare sector may become the next area severely impacted, as 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about the availability of caregivers for hospitals and nursing homes [6]