金十数据8月2日讯，特朗普在接受Newsmax采访时表示，"会毫不犹豫地解雇美联储主席鲍威尔"，但又 称"若解雇鲍威尔将扰乱市场"；他批评"美联储利率太高"，又表示鲍威尔"很有可能"会继续留任主席职 位。 特朗普扬言"会秒换鲍威尔"，后称其很可能继续留任 ...

2025/7/29 09:59 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA⻢棕7⽉前25⽇产量增加5.52% USDA美⾖优良率为70%⾼于市场预期 20250729 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕7月前25日产量增加5.52% USDA美豆优良率为70%高于市场预期 20250729 国富研究 国富研究 2025年07月29日 07:33 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油10(BMD) | 4242. 00 | -0. 87 | 0. 07 | | 布伦特10(ICE) | 69. 60 | 2.96 | 0. 81 | | 美原油09(NYMEX) | 66. 98 | 2.94 | 0. 74 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1011. 50 | -1.00 | -0. 27 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 279. 40 | -0. 82 | -0. 18 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 55. 97 | 0. 09 | -0. 41 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌 ...

"人们应当质疑"（美联储的）利率为何如此高。 美国副财长Faulkender：财政部希望，总统特朗普大范围地编织美联储官员的人选范围。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]

智通财经7月11日讯（编辑 刘蕊）今年上半年，美元经历了自1973年以来最糟糕的上半年表现，但美国 银行的分析显示，今年下半年，美元的下跌空间可能将有限。 美国银行是根据美、欧和亚州三个大的时区框架来进行分析的。 具体来说，美国银行发现，虽然美元整体价格走势不再与美联储降息概率高度相关，但在美国交易时间 内，美元累计回报率与2025年美联储利率的市场定价的相关性仍为+71%。 该行指出，如果美联储在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变，应该会在美国交易时段适度支撑美元。 而在亚洲时段内，亚洲投资者对于美元的抛售空间可能有限。 美国银行预计，后续亚洲投资者对于抛售美元的动力可能会有所减弱，他们可能会等待其他时区出现新 的看跌美元的催化剂，然后再推动美元走低。 相比之下，在欧洲交易时段，美元仍有很大的贬值空间，但美银指出，这可能需要全球股市在今年剩余 时间里跑赢美国股市。 随着美元年初以来持续下挫，外国投资者对于增持其他外汇、以对冲美元资产的动力已经明显减弱。 虽然全球股市在今年第一季度的表现优于美国市场，但在第二季度，美股显著反弹。美国银行表示，美 国和全球其他股票市场的相对表现，应该是2025年下半年全球外汇投资者关注 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump believes the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [1] - Trump claims that the high interest rates result in an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] - He argues that there is currently no inflation and that companies are flocking to the U.S., suggesting a need to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rates are perceived to be at least 3 percentage points too high, leading to significant financial losses for the U.S. economy due to increased refinancing costs [1] Group 1 - The annual loss attributed to each percentage point increase in refinancing costs is estimated at $360 billion [1] - There is a claim that there is no inflation currently affecting the economy [1] - Businesses are reportedly flocking to the U.S. market, indicating a positive sentiment towards the economic environment [1] Group 2 - A call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is emphasized, suggesting that a reduction could benefit the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump claims that the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high, resulting in an additional annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the United States [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rates are perceived to be excessively high by Trump [1] - The high interest rates are leading to increased refinancing costs for the U.S. government [1] - The additional annual cost attributed to these high rates is estimated at $360 billion [1]

Core Points - The recent passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" in the U.S. Congress reflects a significant shift towards austerity measures that disproportionately affect lower-income individuals and workers [4][10] - The act extends tax benefits for the wealthy while cutting food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor, indicating a regression to a more conservative societal structure reminiscent of the Cold War era [6][10][11] - The U.S. is facing a growing national debt, nearing $35 trillion, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually, prompting the need for spending cuts [9] Summary by Sections Legislative Changes - The "Big Beautiful Act" passed with a narrow vote of 218 to 214, with no Democratic votes in favor and only two Republicans opposing [4] - Key provisions include the extension of tax benefits for the wealthy and cuts to food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor [4][10] Economic Context - Over the past decade, average wage growth in the U.S. was around 3% annually before the pandemic, but real purchasing power has stagnated despite nominal increases of over 5% in recent years [6] - The wealth of the top 10% of Americans increased by over 15% in the past year, driven by stock market and real estate gains, while lower-income households have seen their savings diminish [7] Social Implications - The cuts to welfare programs, including a 4% reduction in food assistance and over 1% in children's health insurance subsidies, suggest a return to a society where the working poor must work harder for less support [10][11] - The current economic environment is characterized by a strong dollar and high interest rates, which may lead to further cuts in education and housing subsidies if fiscal pressures continue [13] Consumer Sentiment - Despite rising stock markets, consumer confidence remains low, with many Americans expecting negative economic conditions in the near future [15] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" indicates a prioritization of corporate interests and fiscal strength over the welfare of ordinary workers, raising concerns about the long-term societal impact [15][17]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a decline on June 19, opening at $3,392.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,395.71, a low of $3,347.48, and closing at $3,369.18 [1] News Highlights - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK's, with Europe increasingly willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Canada will adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 [3] Geopolitical Situation - Reports indicate that President Trump is cautious about bombing Iran, partly due to concerns that a regime change could lead to a situation similar to Libya. The decision on whether to participate in Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities has been postponed for two weeks [4] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 947.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 91.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 36.1%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 58.9% and 50 basis points at 5.0% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop to a low of $3,347 during the trading day. The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with short-term resistance levels identified [7] - The trading strategy suggests a cautious approach, maintaining a bearish outlook for short-term trading [8]