US stock futures moved lower on Thursday, retreating from all-time highs as investors braced for another labor data update and grappled with President Trump's salvos on defense and Venezuela. Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) dropped 0.2%, setting the tech-heavy index up for its first loss this week. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) also shed 0.2%, signaling a further pullback from record territory, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) fell 0.4% on the heels of a rocky session. Defense stocks are reboun ...

全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，1月5日白银etf持有量为16353.60吨，较上一交易日减少90.54吨。周一（1月5 日）现货白银尾盘收于76.57美元/盎司，上涨5.44%，盘中白银价格最高上探至77.86美元/盎司，最低触及72.88美元/盎司。 12月非农就业报告定于周五公布，《华尔街日报》调查的分析师预计12月新增就业人数为7.3万人，高于11月的6.4万人。该数据是 市场判断美联储下一步政策动向的关键依据。 贝莱德投资研究院表示，在去年美国政府停摆导致数据发布延迟之后，美国经济数据日程恢复正常，有助于投资者判断经济形 势，尤其是劳动力市场数据备受关注。贝莱德称："美国经济日程本周开始恢复常态。12月就业数据将有助于在此前因延迟发布而 显得嘈杂的情况下，厘清劳动力市场图景。" 【市场要闻速递】 ...

与此同时，全球增长预期可能削弱美元吸引力。交易者短期应密切关注美元指数的关键点位，并留意可能促使美 元走低的因素。 来源：滚动播报 汇通财经APP讯——美元在2026年初开局谨慎，第一季度将检验货币政策分歧、劳动力市场信号及风险情绪的影 响。周一（1月5日）亚欧时段，美元指数小幅走高，涨幅约0.3%，交投于98.70附近。因委内瑞拉总统被捕，强化 了美元作为避险资产的资金流入。从日线和周线时间框架看，除非美元指数能收复100关口附近的关键阻力位，否 则下行修正结构依然显著。 市场普遍预期美联储将释放宽松信号，通过一至两次降息来应对通胀趋缓及就业数据疲软，这将削弱美元的收益 率优势。 1、美联储政策与利率 市场预计美联储将在2026年初实施25-50个基点的降息。 2026年第一季度美元走势的潜在驱动因素 降息将削弱美元相对于其他主要货币的实际收益率优势。 影响：美联储鸽派立场通常会削弱美元，并支撑欧元、英镑和澳元等货币。 2、劳动力市场数据 2026年初的非农就业报告、失业率和薪资增长数据将影响市场对美联储宽松政策的预期。 若劳动力数据强于预期，可能短暂支撑美元；疲软数据则会加速其下跌。 影响：对美国就业数据 ...

美国劳工部31日公布的数据显示，截至12月27日当周，经季节性调整后，美国首次申请失业救济金人数 减少1.6万人，至19.9万人。前一周的数据向上修正为21.4万人。此前经济学家预计该数据将基本保持不 变。 黄金市场继续守住4300美元上方的支撑位，但价格走势表现越来越脆弱。好于预期的劳动力市场数据可 能将继续给黄金带来压力。 转自：新华财经 新华财经纽约12月31日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 31日下跌57.5美元，收于每盎司4328.8美元，跌幅为1.31%。 当日黄金价格走低，盘中一度跌至三周低点，白银价格也大幅下跌。两种贵金属价格均出现剧烈的日内 波动。这种剧烈价格震荡对做空、做多的短期期货交易者都可能是灾难性的。 黄金、白银价格29日大幅下跌，30日大幅反弹，今日再次大幅回落。这预示着看跌趋势。商品期货交易 员正密切关注金属期货市场及其剧烈的每日价格波动。芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）宣布，将 在一周内第二次提高贵金属期货保证金。集团在一份声明中表示，黄金、白银、铂金和钯金合约交易保 证金将于今日收盘后上调。 地缘政治方面，俄罗斯和乌克兰连 ...

今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于18192一线上方，今日开盘于18200元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报18422元/千克，上涨2.56%，最高触及18881元/千克，最低下探18130元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 会议中出现了多位委员的异议，有的建议维持利率不变，有的甚至主张更大幅度降息，这种分歧在美联 储历史上并不常见，且已连续两次会议出现。反对降息的六位决策者中，包括两位FOMC投票成员，他 们对通胀目标进展停滞表示担忧，并强调在下次会议前将有大量劳动力市场和通胀数据公布，这些数据 将有助于判断进一步行动的必要性。 内部分歧和对进一步宽松的谨慎态度，使得市场对2026年降息预期降温，仅为约50个基点。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，昨日白银td价格从上一日高位下跌超3%，今日白银td走势上方震荡，目前价格涨超2%，相 对强弱指数(RSI)在1小时图上偏向中性，DMI显示目前走势处于交界处，进一步则获得上涨动能，白银 td走势下方关注17500-18000支撑；上方关注18500-19000阻力。 【要闻速递】 在12月9-10日的政策会议上，美联储决定 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the Federal Reserve may be more willing to cut rates next year than previously expected, following recent policy easing and Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on labor market risks [1] - Chief Strategist Josh Schiffman notes that Powell's recent press conference highlighted increasing concerns within the Fed regarding the sustainability of employment conditions, suggesting a lower threshold for additional rate cuts [1] - Powell acknowledged a gradual cooling of the labor market but warned that recent employment data might exaggerate potential job growth, emphasizing significant downside risks to labor conditions [1] Group 2 - Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs expects the easing cycle to extend until 2026, with the federal funds target rate potentially falling to 3% or lower, reflecting a view that inflation will continue to moderate and labor market slack will increase [2] - Schiffman anticipates that as short-term yields decline due to policy easing, long-term yields will be supported by supply dynamics and term premium factors, leading to a steeper yield curve [2] - The combination of declining interest rates and a steepening curve suggests a weaker medium-term outlook for the dollar, especially if labor data confirms the Fed's growing concerns [2]

美联储降息25个基点后，美元指数持续承压，每逢反弹便遭遇阻力位抛售，市场正争论宽松政策是否将延续至2026年。 驱动因素：劳动力市场信号疲软、美联储暂停降息与继续降息的不确定性，以及收益率波动，使美元维持区间震荡且偏空。 技术展望：除非即将公布的红文件数据（非农就业、CPI、初请失业金人数）意外偏鹰，否则美元指数在未能重返关键阻力位后恐将开启新一轮下行。 DLS MARKETS认为美元走势的核心逻辑在于：美联储已启动降息，交易员正根据经济是"降温"还是"崩溃"来定价后续政策。美联储将利率下调25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%后，因鲍威尔表态谨慎，市场开始争论明年1月是暂停降息还是继续宽松，美元应声走软。 这种不确定性至关重要，因为美元下跌无需利空消息——有时仅需市场信心动摇。当收益率走势动荡时，美元失去明确优势；当就业数据解读出现分歧时， 美元指数更难形成持续动能。 美元走势的核心逻辑 当前美元走势更像是拉锯战而非趋势性运行。 1) 降息落地，但指引未能为多头铺平道路 降息本身在意料之中，但市场反应揭示了一个简单事实：当美联储实施宽松时，美元走强需要更强烈的避险冲击来抵消。由于鲍威尔给出了谨慎的指引，交 易 ...

Core Insights - The labor market data is not as strong as desired by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's assessment indicates that the current labor market conditions are weaker than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite warnings from the White House, the CPI and employment data for October are expected to be released soon, although the accuracy may be compromised due to government shutdown disruptions [1] Group 1: Economic Data - The government shutdown has affected data collection, but statistical agencies can still use retrospective questions in household employment surveys and more estimation methods for inflation indicators [1] - October's CPI data may be "less accurate than usual" due to the disruptions caused by the government shutdown [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Federal Reserve - Citigroup economists anticipate that labor market data will remain weak, which could lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, January, and March [1]

Group 1 - ADP Research will begin releasing weekly U.S. employment data to provide high-frequency insights into the labor market, supplementing its monthly reports [2][3] - The average new employment figure for the four weeks ending October 11 was 14,250, covering about 20% of the U.S. private sector workforce [3] - The release of this data comes amid a government shutdown, making third-party data sources increasingly valuable as official statistics are paused [3][4] Group 2 - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson stated that the new weekly employment data will offer a clearer picture of the labor market during this critical economic period [4] - There is a general expectation that Federal Reserve officials will lower interest rates in response to a cooling labor market, as hiring has slowed and demand for workers has eased [4] - ADP's data is compiled in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, based on weekly payroll data from over 26 million private sector employees [4]