美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，他是否支持在下次货币政策会议上降息将取决于即将公布的劳动力 市场数据。 沃勒表示，如果2月就业数据如1月一样显示劳动力市场下行风险已经减弱，那么在3月17日至18日召开 的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上维持利率不变可能是合适的。 "但如果1月劳动力市场的好消息被修正，或在2月消失，那么这将支持我在上次FOMC会议主张将利率 下调25个基点的立场，并且应在3月会议上实施这一降息，"他在周一为全国商业经济协会活动准备的发 言中表示。 沃勒反对1月会议维持基准政策利率不变的决定，称鉴于劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，他倾向于降息25个 基点。随后公布的1月就业报告远好于预期，美国新增就业稳健且失业率下降。 通胀前景 沃勒再次表示，他在评估通胀时会剔除总统唐纳德·特朗普贸易政策的影响。 "我估计，我所说的基本通胀—不包含关税影响的通胀—接近FOMC的2%目标，"他说。 "假设基本通胀继续表明我们接近2%的目标，那么制定适当政策的关键将在于我对劳动力市场的看 法，"沃勒说。"就目前而言，我认为这两种可能性几乎各占一半。" 沃勒表示，他欢迎积极的数据，但担心其中"噪音可能多于信号"，尤其是报 ...

当地时间2月23日，美联储理事沃勒表示，3月份利率决议取决于2月份的劳动力市场数据。沃勒称，1月 份就业数据超出预期，如果2月劳动力市场数据与1月类似，显示劳动力市场面临的下行风险已减弱，那 么维持利率不变可能是合适的。沃勒也表示，若2月就业报告走弱，他将倾向于支持在3月降息。目前来 看，这两种可能性"几乎各占一半"。 ...

US equities posted modest gains on Thursday as investors digested a strong January jobs report, fresh corporate earnings, and new labour market data, while keeping a close watch on inflation indicators that could shape the path of interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 295 points, or about 0.6%. ...

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock futures declined, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.2%, S&P 500 futures also down 0.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures falling 0.4%, indicating a retreat from all-time highs [1] - Markets are exhibiting caution ahead of labor market updates, with the latest job cuts report showing planned layoffs at their lowest level since 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Defense Sector - Defense stocks are rebounding in premarket trading after President Trump announced a desire to increase military spending by 50% to $1.5 trillion annually, with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin both gaining around 8% [2] - Trump's threats to block share buybacks and dividends for defense companies unless they invest in weapons operations contributed to previous declines in defense stocks [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The US strategy regarding Venezuela and Greenland is under scrutiny, with Trump suggesting that the US could oversee Venezuela and control its oil revenue for an extended period [5] - Investors are also monitoring a potential Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of tariffs imposed during Trump's administration, with an opinion day scheduled for Friday [5]

Core Insights - The BlackRock Investment Institute indicates that the U.S. economic data schedule is returning to normal after delays caused by last year's government shutdown, which aids investors in assessing economic conditions, particularly labor market data [2] - The December employment report is set to be released on Friday, with analysts from The Wall Street Journal forecasting an increase of 73,000 jobs in December, up from 64,000 in November, making this data crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's next policy moves [2] Economic Data Recovery - The return to a normal economic data schedule is expected to clarify the labor market situation, which had been obscured by previous delays [2] - The focus on December's employment data is significant for market participants as it serves as a key indicator for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [2] Employment Forecast - Analysts predict a rise in non-farm payrolls for December to 73,000, indicating a positive trend in job creation compared to the previous month's figure of 64,000 [2] - This employment data is critical for market assessments regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to face downward pressure in early 2026 due to anticipated monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, labor market signals, and global risk sentiment [1][14]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut of 25-50 basis points in early 2026 [3]. - Such a dovish stance from the Fed is likely to weaken the dollar's yield advantage compared to other major currencies [4]. Group 2: Labor Market Data - Key labor market indicators, including non-farm payroll reports, unemployment rates, and wage growth, will influence expectations regarding the Fed's easing policies [5]. - Stronger-than-expected labor data may temporarily support the dollar, while weaker data could accelerate its decline [6]. Group 3: Risk Sentiment and Global Macro Factors - Positive risk sentiment, characterized by rising stock markets and easing global tensions, typically leads to a withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets like the dollar [8]. - Developments in geopolitical situations, particularly the recent US intervention in Venezuela, may temporarily increase demand for the dollar as a hedge [9]. Group 4: Forex Flows and Reserve Dynamics - There may be structural changes in reserve holdings in early 2026, potentially reducing demand for the dollar [10]. - A shift in capital towards non-dollar assets could exacerbate the dollar's weakness in the first quarter [10]. Technical Outlook - Daily timeframe indicates a bearish trend with a downward correction structure; resistance is at 100.0-100.5 and support at 96.5-97.2 [10]. - Weekly timeframe shows a continued bearish trend, with a need to test the 95-96 support area for potential stabilization [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, with gold futures for February 2026 dropping by $57.5 to $4328.8 per ounce, marking a decline of 1.31% [1] - The volatility in gold and silver prices has been severe, with both metals experiencing sharp daily price movements, which could be detrimental for short-term futures traders [1] - The CME Group announced a second increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures within a week, indicating heightened market volatility and risk [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar is facing its largest annual decline in eight years, with a year-to-date drop of 8.1% in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, influenced by expectations of larger interest rate cuts by the next Federal Reserve chair [2] - Recent labor market data showed a decrease in initial jobless claims, which may exert further pressure on gold prices, indicating a weakening trend in the gold market despite holding above the $4300 support level [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the next resistance level for February gold futures is $4584, while the next support level is $4200 [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the policy meeting on December 9-10, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut [1] - The decision was reached after extensive debate on the risks to the U.S. economy, with most policymakers supporting the cut as a necessary measure to stabilize the labor market amid slowing job growth and rising unemployment [1] - There were notable dissenting opinions among committee members, with some advocating for maintaining rates and others suggesting a more significant cut, indicating a rare level of disagreement within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have cooled, with projections now at approximately 50 basis points due to internal divisions and a cautious approach towards further easing [2] - The recent price movement of silver (TD) shows a decline of over 3% from the previous day's high, followed by a recovery of more than 2%, indicating a volatile trading environment [3] - Key support levels for silver (TD) are identified between 17,500 and 18,000, while resistance levels are noted between 18,500 and 19,000 [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the Federal Reserve may be more willing to cut rates next year than previously expected, following recent policy easing and Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on labor market risks [1] - Chief Strategist Josh Schiffman notes that Powell's recent press conference highlighted increasing concerns within the Fed regarding the sustainability of employment conditions, suggesting a lower threshold for additional rate cuts [1] - Powell acknowledged a gradual cooling of the labor market but warned that recent employment data might exaggerate potential job growth, emphasizing significant downside risks to labor conditions [1] Group 2 - Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs expects the easing cycle to extend until 2026, with the federal funds target rate potentially falling to 3% or lower, reflecting a view that inflation will continue to moderate and labor market slack will increase [2] - Schiffman anticipates that as short-term yields decline due to policy easing, long-term yields will be supported by supply dynamics and term premium factors, leading to a steeper yield curve [2] - The combination of declining interest rates and a steepening curve suggests a weaker medium-term outlook for the dollar, especially if labor data confirms the Fed's growing concerns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut has put continued pressure on the US dollar index, leading to discussions about whether the easing policy will extend into 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Factors Driving Dollar Movement - Weak signals from the labor market, uncertainty regarding the Fed's pause or continuation of rate cuts, and yield volatility are contributing to a bearish outlook for the dollar [1][2] - The dollar's performance is characterized by a tug-of-war rather than a clear trend, with market confidence wavering [5][9] Group 2: Labor Market Signals - A significant increase in initial jobless claims has sparked debate over whether the labor market's weakness is seasonal noise or a substantive signal, undermining confidence in the US economy's growth relative to the global economy [7][11] Group 3: Bond Market Anxiety - The bond market is increasingly focused on policy credibility and long-term interest rate risks, leading to defensive trading in the dollar when yields lack directional guidance [8][9] Group 4: Technical Outlook - The dollar index is expected to remain under pressure unless it can break through key resistance levels, with recent price movements indicating a corrective adjustment rather than a strong upward trend [12][15] - A bullish scenario for the dollar would require significant positive surprises in non-farm payroll data and CPI, alongside stabilization in US Treasury yields [17] Group 5: Bearish Scenario - The prevailing bearish outlook suggests that weak non-farm payroll data or rising unemployment rates, along with soft CPI readings, could reinforce easing expectations and lead to further declines in the dollar index [20]