穆迪：美国就业市场逼近"衰退边缘"，结构性疲软显现 标普全球：韩国企业信贷最坏时期或已过去，2026年困境有望缓解 野村证券：市场质疑日央行加息可持续性，实际利率为负制约日元反弹 转自：新华财经 东方汇理资产管理称意大利政府债券（BTP）为发达市场中的"绝佳机会"，对意德国债利差仓位持积极 看法，理由包括意大利政局稳定及改善债务轨迹的切实举措，并认为意大利已成为少数具备明确近期支 撑的发达市场主权债发行人之一。 野村外汇策略指出，市场普遍质疑日本央行能否将政策利率持续上调至1.00%或更高，这一疑虑正成为 制约日元走强的关键因素。尽管日本央行释放12月加息信号，但因实际利率仍为负，未能激发有效买 盘，美元兑日元维持在155上方。除非日本央行展现更明确鹰派立场并推动实际利率显著转正，否则难 见持续性日元多头布局。 标普全球评级表示，韩国企业信贷环境最艰难的阶段可能已经过去，尽管2026年整体信贷状况仍将承 压。分析师指出，美国政策调整和关税仍是挑战，但政策方向趋于明朗，有助于降低不确定性，预计韩 国企业困境将在明年有所缓解。 Neuberger Berman首席投资官指出，无论美联储本周是否降息，利率终将下行， ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家Mark Zandi担心美国劳动力市场已不再有缓冲。 这位首席经济学家指出，太多的美国人"已经生活在财务边缘"。"如果他们开始削减开支，那就是引发 衰退的素材"。 这一严峻的评估出炉之际，招聘已陷入停滞，失业率正在上升——特别是对于最脆弱的工人群体——而 且裁员公告正在堆积。 对Zandi来说，下一阶段已清晰可见："如果我们确实看到裁员增加，那么这无疑将是一场就业衰退。" Zandi是在美国周二发布长期推迟的JOLTS报告之前得出这一评估的，但官方数据在很大程度上证实了 他通过私人数据追踪到的回落趋势。 因此，对于Zandi来说，如果ADP提供了当下的快照，那么来自挑战者的数据则暗示了未来可能发生的 情况，后者显示，雇主今年已宣布了110万次裁员，这一数字仅次于2020年的疫情冲击和大衰退的深渊 时期。 Zandi建议道，这些公告是全球性的，并非所有都会变成美国的裁员，但他认为其规模意义重大，因为 它们反映了在实际离职前数月做出的决定。 "这将表明裁员即将来临，"他说。"它们似乎尚未发生。"裁员公告增加与处于历史低位的失业保险 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant downturn, with private sector data indicating a potential employment recession is imminent [1][2] - In October, corporate layoffs surged to 153,000, marking the highest level for that month in over 20 years, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas [1][3] - The WARN notices, which companies must submit before large layoffs, have reached a new high since 2016, excluding pandemic-related anomalies, signaling increased layoffs ahead [1][8] Group 2 - Alternative employment data from ADP and Revelio Labs show a rapid decline in job momentum, contrasting sharply with official statistics up to August [2][6] - ADP reported an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, suggesting a potential loss of approximately 45,000 jobs in the latter half of October [6][8] - Revelio Labs indicated a decrease of 9,100 jobs in October, marking one of the worst monthly performances since 2025, driven mainly by reductions in government positions [6][8] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the labor market is weakening, predicting a negative growth of 50,000 jobs in the official October non-farm payrolls [8][9] - The firm highlights structural issues, with rising WARN notices and layoffs exceeding pre-pandemic levels, suggesting an impending increase in initial unemployment claims [8][10] - The sentiment among companies regarding future hiring needs is increasingly pessimistic, as evidenced by a rising proportion of firms mentioning layoffs in earnings calls [8][9] Group 4 - The role of artificial intelligence in driving layoffs has become prominent, particularly since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, affecting industries like technology, finance, and real estate [9][10] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the median and average unemployment rates may reach 4.5% in six months, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase from August [9][10] - The probability of a significant rise in unemployment (0.5 percentage points or more) has increased to 20-25%, up from 10% six months ago, indicating heightened recession risks [10] Group 5 - Major companies have announced substantial layoffs, including UPS cutting 48,000 jobs, Amazon reducing 14,000 positions, and General Motors laying off over 1,700 employees [11] - Other notable layoffs include Paramount with 2,000 jobs, and Ford planning to cut up to 1,000 jobs in Germany [11] - The trend of layoffs is widespread across various sectors, reflecting a broader economic adjustment in response to rising costs and changing market conditions [11]