Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has seen frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period, boosting market sentiment and economic expectations. The China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, and the domestic manufacturing PMI in October was 49, with production and new orders declining [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks, and the US government shutdown continues [1] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals [2] Market Analysis - The "15th Five - Year Plan" sets clear goals, and the expected average GDP growth rate during the period is around 5%, which boosts market sentiment [1] - The China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, including solutions to the TikTok issue, suspension of some US investigations and rules, and cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" [1] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8 and a difference of - 0.6 from the recent average. Production and new orders declined [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. The short - term funding shortage has not been significantly alleviated, and there is a 67.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 37th day, breaking the historical record. The 10 - month ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and the "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 new jobs in October [1] Commodity Analysis - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and there are price fluctuation risks. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation [2] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector's long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply [2] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after short - term sharp fluctuations [2] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Key News - The market strengthened with fluctuations throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 4000 points, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon. Over 2800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.07 trillion [4] - The US government shutdown has reached 36 days, a record high. Trump expects the stock market to reach a new high and calls for an end to the "lengthy debate" rule to restart the government [4] - Fed Governor Milan believes that the ADP small non - farm employment report is better than expected, and the labor demand is not as strong as expected. He believes that the Fed's monetary policy is too restrictive and further interest rate cuts are reasonable [4] - Key conservative Supreme Court justices questioned the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the final ruling may shake Trump's signature economic policy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Domestic market has positive news, but economic foundation needs strengthening. The "15th Five-Year Plan" boosts market sentiment and economic expectations, and the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be around 5%. The Sino-US economic and trade teams have reached consensus on three aspects, and the A-share market showed an upward trend on November 5th [1]. - The Fed's stop of QT is still slow, and liquidity risks need attention in November. There are differences among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks. The US government shutdown continues, and the 10 - month ISM manufacturing index has declined [1]. - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in the second half of inflation, such as non - ferrous metals and energy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic market: The "15th Five - Year Plan" sets goals, and the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be around 5%. Sino - US economic and trade teams reached three - point consensus. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8. On November 5th, the A - share market had an upward trend, and the ChiNext Index rose by over 1% [1]. - US market: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. There are differences among Fed officials on inflation and employment risks. The US government shutdown entered its 36th day on November 5th. The 10 - month ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and the ADP employment number increased by 42,000 [1]. - Commodities: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and changes in agricultural products and precious metals [1] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [2] To - do News - The State Council Tariff Commission will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for one year while retaining the 10% tariff from November 10, 2025 [3]. - The US federal government shutdown entered its 36th day on November 4th, breaking the historical record [3]. - The US 10 - month ADP employment number increased by 42,000, higher than the expected 30,000 [3]. - The US Supreme Court will decide on Trump's tariff policy, and Treasury Secretary Bessent will go to the Supreme Court to emphasize the importance of tariffs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures [5] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown has tied the record, putting pressure on global liquidity. The Fed's slow stop of QT and potential liquidity risks in November need attention. The domestic market has positive news, but the economic foundation needs to be strengthened. Commodities should be on the sidelines for now, with a focus on potential breakthroughs in the second half of inflation [2][3][4] Market Analysis - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, with clear goals. The average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan may be around 5%. On October 30, the China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus. The October national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8. The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October. On November 4, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2% [2] Fed and US Economic Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. The short - term funding shortage persists, with the spread between the general collateral rate and the reserve balance rate reaching 0.32%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues, and the October ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months. The dollar index broke through 100 on November 4 [3] Commodity Analysis - Commodities should be on the sidelines. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector's medium - term supply is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ increasing production. The chemical sector's "anti - involution" space for some varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, focus on China's procurement plan and weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [4] Key News - The central bank's net open - market treasury bond trading in October was 200 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 200 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 400 billion yuan. The market adjusted on November 4, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The US government shutdown entered the 35th day. The dollar index broke through 100. Iraq's prime minister ordered a halt to gasoline, diesel, and kerosene imports [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has received frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be strengthened. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposals were released, and the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5%. The A-share market rebounded on November 3rd, and the thorium-based molten salt reactor concept stocks soared [2] - The Fed's pace of ending QT is still slow, and liquidity risks need to be monitored in November. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues, and the selection of the Fed chair candidate will also affect future monetary policy [2] - For commodities, the overall strategy is to be neutral. Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: basic metals are strong, black sectors are affected by downstream demand, the energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, the "anti-involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, and the focus on agriculture products is on China's procurement plan and weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposals set goals for national development, and the average GDP growth rate during this period is expected to be around 5%, which boosts market sentiment. The China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, which includes resolving the TikTok issue, suspending some US investigations and export control rules, and canceling the "fentanyl tariff" [2] - The manufacturing PMI in October showed a decline. The China-US export and import rush needs to be digested. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, down from the previous value of 51.2 [2][5] - The China-EU export control dialogue was held, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2][5] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. However, short - term capital tensions persist. The probability of a December rate cut is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues and may become the longest in history [2] Commodity Analysis - The basic metal market is strong, with aluminum prices likely to reach the highest closing price since May 2022, and copper prices approaching the historical high [3][5] - The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted [3] - The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations [3] - The energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium term. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November and December, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [3] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other products is worthy of attention [3] - For agricultural products, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations [3] - Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after short - term fluctuations. A new gold tax policy was announced, which will increase retailer costs [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Risk - Geopolitical risks may cause an upward risk in the energy sector; global economic downturn, Fed tightening, and overseas liquidity shocks may lead to a downward risk for risk assets [4] To - Do List - The RatingDog manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from the previous value [5] - The China - EU export control dialogue was held in Brussels to promote the stability of the industrial and supply chains [5] - The A - share market rebounded on November 3rd, with the GEM index rising 0.29%. The thorium - based molten salt reactor concept stocks soared [2][5] - Aluminum prices are likely to reach the highest closing price since May 2022, and copper prices are approaching the historical high [3][5] - OPEC+ will increase production in November and December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [3][5] - A new gold tax policy was announced, which will increase retailer costs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: The Fed's hawkish stance and the historical high level are pressuring copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest, indicating an increasing willingness of short - term bulls to close positions. After the October Fed interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. The 25 - basis - point rate cut met market expectations, but internal policy disagreements and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts cooled the rate - cut expectation, which is negative for copper prices. Also, after the meeting and the APEC China - US summit, the copper market showed a trend of "good news exhausted." Copper prices have risen sharply in the short term and face historical high - level pressure, so bulls are more willing to close positions. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum: The expectation of "anti - involution" in China has heated up again, and aluminum prices are running strongly. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated, and there was a sign of upward breakthrough in the night session on Friday. Compared with copper, China has stronger pricing power for aluminum. At the macro level, the decline in overseas rate - cut expectations is negative for aluminum prices, while the warming of the domestic macro - economy and the rising "anti - involution" expectation are positive. In the industry, both the inventories of electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods are decreasing, which also supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the high - level pressure in November 2024 above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - On October 30, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected in the October meeting. Milan supported a 50BP rate cut, and Schmid hoped to keep rates unchanged. The balance - sheet reduction will end on December 1. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and officials have serious disagreements on December policies. The data vacuum due to the government shutdown has made more people cautious and inclined to keep rates unchanged. Powell also mentioned that this is a risk - management rate cut and that the current AI boom is different from the previous Internet bubble [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The report presents multiple charts related to copper's quantity - price trend, including copper futures price trends, copper's Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper's seasonal premium and discount, Shanghai copper's open interest, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc. [12][18][22] 2.2 Copper Ore Inventory Depletion - Charts show the port inventory of copper concentrates and the TC processing fees of copper concentrates, reflecting the situation of copper ore inventory depletion [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory - The report shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper and the overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) of electrolytic copper [28]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - Stage - A chart shows the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper's downstream industries [31]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The report presents multiple charts related to aluminum's quantity - price trend, including aluminum price trends, aluminum's Shanghai - London ratio, LME aluminum's premium and discount, Shanghai aluminum's spot premium and discount, etc. [30][32][34] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Charts show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina, reflecting the situation of the upstream industry chain [37][38]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Depletion - The report shows the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, indicating the inventory depletion situation [40]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - Stage - Charts show the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, reflecting the situation of the downstream initial - stage [43][46][48]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. After the October Fed interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. The rate - cut expectation cooled, and the market showed a "good news exhausted" trend. Copper prices face historical high - level pressure, and bulls are more willing to close positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a sign of upward breakthrough on Friday night. China has stronger pricing power for aluminum. Overseas rate - cut expectation decline is negative, while domestic macro - warming and "anti - involution" expectation rise are positive. Industry inventory depletion supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the high - level pressure in November 2024 above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [49].

Report Title - PTA&PX承压于高库存，聚酯分化格局抑制反弹 [1] Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA and PX are pressured by high inventories, and the differentiated pattern of polyester restrains the rebound. The supply pressure of PX and PTA is increasing, while the demand is weak, and the inventory of PTA is accumulating, which may lead to the continued weakening of their prices. The polyester industry shows a differentiated pattern, with low inventory of filament supporting price resilience and high inventory of staple fiber having回调 pressure [1][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA&PX**: On October 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,588.0 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -103.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,570.0 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -10.0 yuan/ton. The cost support of PX is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing, the demand for PTA is lack of elasticity, and the inventory is accumulating [2][3] - **Polyester**: On October 30, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,268.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 97.0 yuan/ton. The terminal textile demand is weakening, the inventory of polyester filament is significantly lower than the average level in the past five years, while the inventory of polyester staple fiber is higher than the average level in the past five years. It is expected that the industrial chain will maintain the cost-driven logic in the short term, but the decline in demand may limit the increase of PTA, the low inventory of filament may support price resilience, and the high inventory of staple fiber may have回调 pressure [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.96%, the trading volume increased by 5.96%, and the open interest increased by 1.54%. The spot price of PX in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 0.13%. The basis of PX increased by 48.76% [5] - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 1.42%, the trading volume increased by 28.41%, and the open interest increased by 0.40%. The spot price of PTA in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged. The basis of PTA increased by 89.58%, the 1-5 spread decreased by 15.38%, the 5-9 spread decreased by 22.22%, and the 9-1 spread increased by 17.14%. The import profit of PTA increased by 2.40% [5] - **Short Fiber**: The main contract price of short fiber futures decreased by 1.02%, the trading volume increased by 16.07%, and the open interest decreased by 8.18%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.08%. The basis of PF increased by 60.82%, the 1-5 spread decreased by 600.00%, the 5-9 spread remained unchanged, and the 9-1 spread increased by 50.00% [5] - **Other Products**: The price of the Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.42%, the price of the WTI crude oil main contract decreased by 0.12%, the price of CFR Japanese naphtha increased by 0.26%, the price of ethylene glycol remained unchanged, the price of polyester chips remained unchanged, the price of polyester bottle chips decreased by 0.35%, the price of polyester POY remained unchanged, the price of polyester DTY remained unchanged, and the price of polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - **Processing Spreads**: The processing spread of naphtha increased by 3.13%, the processing spread of PX decreased by 0.61%, the processing spread of PTA increased by 14.20%, the processing spread of polyester chips decreased by 17.64%, the processing spread of polyester bottle chips decreased by 11.18%, the processing spread of polyester short fiber decreased by 35.59%, the processing spread of polyester POY decreased by 18.60%, the processing spread of polyester DTY decreased by 9.94%, and the processing spread of polyester FDY decreased by 4.60% [6] - **Light Textile City Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of the Light Textile City increased by 9.60%, the trading volume of long fiber fabrics increased by 10.00%, and the trading volume of short fiber fabrics increased by 8.72% [6] - **Industrial Chain Load Rates**: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [6] - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of polyester short fiber increased by 0.97%, the inventory days of polyester POY decreased by 27.97%, the inventory days of polyester FDY decreased by 16.44%, and the inventory days of polyester DTY decreased by 16.95% [6] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Macroeconomic Dynamics**: On October 30, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and hinted at a pause in rate cuts. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ended the balance sheet reduction on December 1, and there were serious differences among officials regarding the December policy. Middle Eastern Gulf countries collectively announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. On October 29, Citibank lowered the short-term price targets for gold and silver. Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was either incompetent or bad and would leave his position in "a few months" [7] - **Supply and Demand - Demand**: On October 29, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 708.0 million meters, a month-on-month decrease of 3.01%, with a trading volume of 560.0 million meters for long fiber fabrics and 149.0 million meters for short fiber fabrics [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts on PX and PTA futures, spot prices, basis, processing spreads, industrial chain load rates, inventory days, and Light Textile City trading volumes [9][11][13][15][17][19][22][23][27][28][30] 3.5 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - Supply-side: PX and PTA may face increased supply pressure, and the decline in crude oil prices reduces costs. Demand-side: Affected by downstream polyester and terminal textiles, demand is weak. Inventory-side: PTA factory inventories are accumulating. These factors may lead to the continued weakening of PX and PTA prices [35][36]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with significant divergence among officials regarding future policy direction [1] - Powell emphasized that the December rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating a cautious approach among officials due to data uncertainty [1] - The Fed's recent rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, distinguishing the current AI boom from the previous internet bubble [1] Group 2: Commodity Markets - Gold prices fell by 0.56% to $3930.61 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 1.1% to $47.57 per ounce [1] - Oil prices rebounded after a decline, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.27% to $60.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.70% to $64.20 per barrel, following a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories [1] Group 3: Sanctions and Global Markets - The U.S. announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two oil companies [1] Group 4: Company Milestones - Nvidia became the first company globally to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion [2]

市场正从"美国例外论"转向"美国否定"，美银全球策略师Michael Hartnett建议投资者 逢高卖出美股，逢低买入国际股票与黄金。 Hartnett在其24日发布的研报中表示，近期资金流向显示， 美国股票录得8亿美元流出，而黄金流入33亿美元， 表明市场对黄金的偏好正在增 加。 随着全球经济的再平衡，资金从美国市场流向其他地区，尤其是新兴市场和欧洲， 这种资金流动趋势对黄金价格形成支撑。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 Hartnett建议， "Stay BIG, sell rips" ，即做多债券（Bonds）、国际股票（International Stocks）和黄金（Gold）。投资者应该在美股市场反弹 时逢高卖出，而不是盲目追涨。 H a r t n e t t ： 市 场 正 处 于 历 史 性 转 折 点 Hartnett表示，年初至今，金融资产表现显示出明确趋势： 黄金领涨(+26.2%)，债券表现良好(政府债券+5.6%，投资级债券+3.9%)，而美股 (-3.3%)和美元(-8.5%)显著下跌。 近期资金流向显示， 所有地区股票市场均录得流入 (欧洲34亿美元，新兴市场10亿美元，日本10亿美元 ...