尿素供需基本面

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尿素周报:盘面回归基本面-20250825
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:15
【冠通研究】 制作日期:2025 年 8 月 25 日 尿素周报:盘面回归基本面 摘要:上周尿素盘面冲高回落,周一开盘低开高走,小幅收涨。周末以 来,上游工厂降价吸单,市场活跃度不高。周末以来,尿素价格呈现震 荡下行波动趋势,需求依旧弱势,今日山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗 粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多在 1650-1680 元/吨,较上周五普遍下滑 60- 70 元/吨。基本面来看,尿素工厂本周计划停车企业多,预计产量继续 下行为主,目前日产维持在 19 万吨左右波动,河南心连心,山西潞安 等本周有检修计划。需求端,近期复合肥工厂开工已至历史同期高位, 后续攀升高度有限,近期受阅兵环保限产的影响,复合肥工厂出现限产 减产情况,开工负荷略有下调,后续将复产,但整体增量有限,需求呈 现韧性,厂内成品库存近两个月位于五年同期高位水平,工厂无出货压 力,集中备肥概率低;其他工业需求也多受环保限产问题而减产停车。 内需不足,产量又增加,库存表现为累库,且目前位于近五年高位,大 量库存压制行情上涨空间。整体来说,本次出口利多情绪基本兑现消化, 而内需不足拖累盘面下滑走弱,九月印标情况或还将对市场有影响。目 前供需呈现双弱,盘 ...
银河期货尿素日报-20250724
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 13:40
能源化工研发报告 大宗商品研究 尿素日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 尿素日报 【逻辑分析】 今日,市场情绪表现一般,主流地区尿素现货出厂报价明稳暗降,成交乏力。山东 地区主流出厂报价暂稳,市场情绪表现一般,工业复合肥开工率略有提升,原料库存充 裕,成品库存偏高,基层订单稀少,刚需补货为主,农业刚需采购,贸易商出货,新单 成交转弱,待发消耗,预计出厂报价弱稳为主;河南地区市场情绪偏低,出厂报价暂稳, 贸易商观望,收单量下滑,成交乏力,待发充裕,预计出厂报价暂稳为主。交割区周边 区域出厂价明稳暗降,区内市场氛围表现降温,东北地区追肥结束,交投情绪一般,农 业刚需采购,期现商和贸易商出货,外发订单量下滑,新单成交平平,待发充裕,预计 出厂价下跌为主。部分装置检修,日均产量降至 19 万吨附近,仍位于同期最高水平。 需求端,新一轮印标价格公布,东海岸最低投标价 495 美元/吨,西海岸最低投标价 494 美元/吨,当前国内外价差较大,在出口放松背景下,对国内市场情绪有一定提振。华 中、华北地区复合肥积极性不高,基层暂无备货医院,复合肥厂开工率略有提升,但尿 素库存可用天数在一周后,对原料采购情绪不高。本周,尿素 ...
【期货热点追踪】出口相关利好传闻叠加印度新一轮招标影响下,尿素领涨期市!未来能否继续追涨?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-25 11:58
Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing fluctuations driven by export-related rumors and India's new round of urea import tenders, leading to a significant increase in futures prices and varying spot prices across different regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, the main urea futures contract rose by 2.47%, with a trading volume of 255,200 lots, an increase of 81,630 lots [1]. - The average spot price for medium-sized granular urea in Shandong is 1,754 RMB/ton, down by 10 RMB/ton from the previous working day; in Henan, the price is 1,760 RMB/ton, up by 9 RMB/ton; and in Hebei, it is 1,763 RMB/ton, down by 1 RMB/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of June 25, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises is 1,095,900 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons week-on-week, with a significant reduction of 353% [1]. - The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea manufacturers is 88.28%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous period, indicating a shift from a declining to an increasing trend [1]. - Daily production of urea in China exceeds 200,000 tons, with agricultural demand not showing strong support, particularly in the Northeast region where summer corn fertilization is starting [3][4]. Group 3: Import Tenders and Future Outlook - India's RCF has announced a urea import tender with an intended purchase volume of 2 million tons, split evenly between the east and west coasts, with the bid opening on July 7 and valid until July 17 [1]. - Market sentiment is currently buoyed by export rumors and the Indian tender announcement, but caution is advised as the demand for urea may not sustain the current price levels due to an oversupply situation [2].