Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province's plan to issue 11.13465 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds reflects a refined approach to local debt management and is a significant step in the national strategy to mitigate local debt risks [1][3][4] Group 1: Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bonds differ fundamentally from ordinary refinancing bonds, as they are specifically designed to replace hidden debts with explicit government bonds, enhancing debt management transparency [3][4] - The issuance is part of a broader national strategy, with over 2.2 trillion yuan allocated for local government bonds in 2023 and an additional 1.2 trillion yuan planned for 2024, indicating a concerted effort to manage local debt risks [3][4] Group 2: Financial and Structural Impacts - The bond issuance is expected to optimize Hubei's finances by replacing high-cost, short-term hidden debts, thereby reducing interest expenses and alleviating short-term repayment pressures [4][5] - By incorporating hidden debts into a regulated government debt management system, the initiative aims to improve transparency and regulatory efficiency, allowing local governments to focus resources on investment, consumption, and public welfare [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - While the refinancing bonds provide immediate relief, they are seen as a short-term solution that does not fundamentally resolve the underlying debt issues, necessitating concurrent fiscal reforms and economic restructuring [5] - The issuance of these bonds marks a shift from a "coarse" to a "refined" approach in local government debt management, emphasizing the need for long-term balance through economic development and institutional innovation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fiscal achievements during the 14th Five - Year Plan include enhanced financial strength, stable macro - regulation, improved people's livelihood, and effective risk prevention. Over 60% of financing platforms have exited, and in the 15th Five - Year Plan, debt reduction and development will go hand in hand to promote a positive cycle between economic development and debt management [5][8][11]. - Gansu issued the first provincial - level implementation plan for the construction and operation of PPP stock projects, aiming to solve related problems and promote the compliance and stable operation of projects [5][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. News Reviews 3.1.1. Fiscal Achievements during the 14th Five - Year Plan - Fiscal macro - regulation has achieved new breakthroughs, with fiscal policies becoming more proactive, enhancing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and emphasizing expectation management. The deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 4%, and the total national general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The expenditure structure has been further optimized, with a more prominent people - oriented focus. Fiscal investment in people's livelihood is nearly 100 trillion yuan, and in 2025, 100 billion yuan is allocated for child - rearing subsidies and 20 billion yuan for free pre - school education [10]. - Local debt risks have significantly converged, with over 60% of financing platforms exiting. The "6 + 4+2 debt - reduction combination" has achieved positive results, and the Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of some new local government debt quotas in 2026 [11][12]. - Fiscal and tax reform and management have advanced in depth, forming a good pattern of more scientific budget management, more perfect tax systems, and more sound fiscal systems [13]. 3.1.2. Gansu's PPP Stock Project Plan - Gansu issued the "Implementation Plan for the Standardized Construction and Operation of Government - Social Capital Cooperation Stock Projects" on September 8, 2025. The plan has three - stage goals and proposes multiple measures to ensure the smooth construction of ongoing projects and the stable operation of operational projects [15]. 3.1.3. Early Repayment of Bonds by 29 Urban Investment Enterprises - 29 urban investment enterprises early - repaid the principal and interest of 29 bonds, with a total scale of 5.067 billion yuan, a decrease of 127 million yuan compared to the previous period. Most of the enterprises are in the eastern region, and the main rating is AA [17][18]. 3.1.4. Cancellation of Issuance of 4 Urban Investment Bonds - Four urban investment bonds with a planned issuance scale of 2.1 billion yuan were cancelled from September 10 - 12, 2025. As of September 12, 79 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 50.264 billion yuan [19]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds 3.2.1. Local Government Bonds - This week, 53 local government bonds were issued, with the issuance scale rising 223.02% to 301.672 billion yuan and the net financing rising 425.16% to 192.779 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose 13.59 BP to 2.17%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed 1.72 BP to 19.47 BP [20]. - Shenzhen issued 1 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau on September 9, and Hainan issued 5 billion yuan of RMB local government bonds in Hong Kong on September 12 [20][21]. 3.2.2. Urban Investment Bonds - This week, 131 urban investment bonds were issued, with the issuance scale rising 26.02% to 94.766 billion yuan and the net financing rising 56.269 billion yuan to 21.563 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.38%, a 0.56 BP increase, and the issuance spread was 80.48 BP, a 4.37 BP narrowing [25][27]. - Three overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2.84 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate was 4.11% [27]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 1.0684 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan [31]. - Short - term capital interest rates all increased. The trading volume of local government bond spot reached 434.793 billion yuan, a 15.64% increase, and most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 4.67 BP [31]. - The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 253.397 billion yuan, a 0.57% increase, and all maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 5.63 BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds all widened [33]. - Ten urban investment entities had 14 abnormal transactions of 10 bonds, with the number of entities and abnormal transactions increasing compared to last week, while the number of bonds remained unchanged [33]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 56 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, name changes, business scope changes, and changes in the use of raised funds [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady growth and positive performance of China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. as of mid-2025, with total assets reaching 1.68 trillion yuan, a 2.62% increase from the previous year [1] - The company's total liabilities amounted to 1.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.80% growth year-on-year, indicating stable business expansion [1] - Shareholder equity stood at 197.29 billion yuan, up 1.60% from the end of the previous year, demonstrating ongoing value creation for shareholders [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 2.281 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.78%, showcasing robust operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - In terms of risk management, China Cinda actively participated in the reform and risk mitigation of small and medium-sized financial institutions, acquiring nearly 60 billion yuan in non-performing loans from 54 local small banks, a year-on-year increase of 85.4% [2] - The company has been involved in real estate risk resolution, successfully implementing 19 projects in the first half of 2025, with an investment of 5.4 billion yuan, ensuring the delivery of 14,000 housing units and facilitating the resumption of projects worth over 75.7 billion yuan [2] - China Cinda established four real estate relief funds to support key projects in risk mitigation, while also providing intellectual support and tailored products for local government debt resolution, aiding in the transformation of local investment companies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese government is undergoing significant changes in its financing system, with a notable increase in government net financing while city investment bonds (CIB) are experiencing negative net financing [1][2] - In the first half of 2023, the net financing of government bonds reached 7.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, representing a growth of approximately 129% [1][4] - The net financing of city investment bonds saw a decline of 763.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 149%, indicating a tightening supply of CIBs [1][4] Group 2 - The decline in CIB issuance and negative net financing is a result of stricter regulations aimed at controlling new hidden debts and enhancing oversight of CIBs [2][4] - Despite the decrease in CIB financing, the government still needs to increase debt funding for major project construction to sustain economic growth amid complex internal and external conditions [2] - Infrastructure investment in the first half of 2023 grew by 4.6%, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points, supported by the acceleration of special local government bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [4] Group 3 - The ongoing transformation of city investment companies is being accelerated, with over 7,000 companies withdrawing from the government financing platform list last year [1] - The report from China Chengxin International indicates that while the pace of debt resolution is increasing, local governments still face significant repayment pressures, and the effectiveness of monetary policy and tools needs continuous observation [4] - The quality of the transformation among city investment enterprises varies, raising concerns about the restructuring of government-enterprise relationships and the potential for increased debt burdens due to "fake transformations" [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.00% this week, following a previous increase of 3.77% [1][13] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has risen by 16.59%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1] - Key banks to watch include China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index fell this week, with 17 out of 42 banks seeing an increase in stock prices [2][12] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 1.08%, while joint-stock banks saw a slight decline of 0.08% [2][15] - Over the past month, state-owned banks increased by 8.98%, while joint-stock banks rose by 9.80% [2][15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank's reverse repo operations decreased, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan this week [3][28] - The overnight SHIBOR rate rose to 1.33%, and the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased to 1.48% [3][31] - The average overnight repo rate for deposit institutions was 1.34%, reflecting a rise of 3 basis points [3][31] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 17,057.9 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 2,087.7 billion yuan compared to last week [4][41] - Financial bonds issuance was 4,071.5 billion yuan, up by 2,030.5 billion yuan from the previous week [4][41] - Government bonds saw a rise in yields, with the 1-year yield at 1.37% and the 10-year yield at 1.67% [5][43] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The issuance of interbank certificates totaled 4,259 billion yuan, an increase of 1,833 billion yuan from last week [54] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.61%, down by 1 basis point [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of today's futures main contracts. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while silver, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures will oscillate with an upward bias. Rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will also have a relatively strong oscillation, and crude oil futures will oscillate weakly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with Egyptian Prime Minister Madbouly, expressing China's willingness to strengthen development strategy alignment and expand cooperation in emerging fields [8]. - Chinese Vice - Premier Ding Xuexiang met with former US Treasury Secretary Paulson, stating that China is a major stabilizing factor in the world and hopes the US to develop mutually beneficial and stable economic and trade relations [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Finance interpreted policies restricting EU medical device procurement, with specific budget thresholds and exceptions for EU - funded enterprises in China [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center aims to promote high - quality new urbanization actions [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US negotiations, rumors about Huang Renxun's visit to China, and refuted von der Leyen's remarks on over - capacity [9]. - China's retirees' basic pensions have increased by 2% since January 1, 2025 [9]. - In the first half of this year, local governments issued nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, and experts suggest continuing debt risk resolution in the second half [9]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and considered appointing a "shadow chairman" [10]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025 [10]. - Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July and reducing the balance sheet [10]. - Fed's Daly believes the Fed may cut rates twice this year, with policy uncertainties [11]. - Fed's Musalem said future inflation expectations may rise due to tariffs [12]. - The US Department of Defense will invest $4 billion in MP Materials [12]. - US initial jobless claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week, while continuing claims remained high [12]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for polysilicon futures contracts [12]. - International oil prices fell due to concerns about global demand and an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories [12]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, supported by inflation concerns and central bank gold purchases [13]. - London base metals mostly closed higher, with copper prices showing an oscillatory trend [13]. - OPEC adjusted its global oil demand forecast, and OPEC + is discussing production adjustments [13]. - China's summer grain production was stable in 2025 [13]. - China's auto production and sales increased in June, especially for new energy vehicles [14]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar strengthened, and the exchange rate is expected to appreciate further [14]. - The US dollar index rose due to global trade uncertainties [14] 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all showed an upward trend with varying degrees of increase. It is expected that in July 2025, these stock index futures will have a relatively strong oscillation, and on July 11, they will continue this trend with specific resistance and support levels provided [15][19][20]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures both declined. It is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate weakly, with specific resistance and support levels given [40][42][45]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures showed an upward trend on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Silver futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias and may reach new highs [45][46][52]. Base Metal Futures - Copper futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Aluminum futures rose on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias. Alumina, zinc, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures all showed upward trends on July 10, and it is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate with an upward bias [55][61][66]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, but on July 11, the main contract will oscillate weakly. PTA and methanol futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 11, while PVC and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [7][102][108]. Building Materials and Metals Futures - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures all showed upward trends on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will continue to oscillate with an upward bias, and soda ash futures will oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [4][82][90]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate futures had a slight decline on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, it will oscillate with an upward bias and may attack resistance levels [79].

Core Viewpoint - Local government debt risks have become a significant concern, necessitating a dual challenge of resolving existing debt and restructuring financing models under the constraints of "preventing defaults" [1] Group 1: Project Selection Logic - Incremental projects by urban investment platforms must align with both "serving local functions" and "market-driven revenue generation" [2] - Projects should anchor on national strategic directions such as "Yellow River Basin ecological protection" and "rural revitalization," which attract policy resources and funding [2] - A closed-loop revenue model must be established during the feasibility study phase, exemplified by affordable housing projects that combine commercial space to cover construction costs [3] - Urban investment companies need to transition from "infrastructure builders" to "urban operators," integrating various public utility services to ensure stable revenue streams [4] Group 2: Funding Source Optimization - A mixed funding model of "policy funds as a base + market financing as a supplement" is essential under tight fiscal constraints [5] - Innovative debt instruments and capital raising strategies are necessary, such as leveraging special bonds and policy financial loans to achieve a leverage ratio of 1:5 [5] Group 3: Avoiding Hidden Debt - Breaking the "fiscal dependency inertia" is crucial to avoid new hidden debts, which involves redefining the responsibilities between government and enterprises [6] - Techniques such as market-driven decision-making and cash flow packaging can help mitigate direct fiscal support and reduce the risk of hidden debt recognition [7][8] - Utilizing gray areas in policies, such as indirect fiscal payments and transforming specific project subsidies into broader industry policies, can further reduce hidden debt risks [8] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - While current practices have shown some success, potential risks remain, including regulatory scrutiny and the sustainability of market-driven revenues [9] - Future reforms should focus on balancing risk prevention and growth stabilization, requiring both technical innovations and deeper fiscal reforms [9]

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a deficit rate reaching approximately 4%, the highest since the implementation of active fiscal policies in 2008, reflecting a strong commitment to economic recovery[2] - The total deficit scale is set at 5.66 trillion, significantly higher than last year's 1.6 trillion, indicating a substantial increase in fiscal spending[2] - Special bonds are planned at 4.4 trillion, exceeding last year's 500 billion, while the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds will increase to 1.3 trillion, up from 300 billion last year[2] Economic Impact - The increase in the deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long bonds collectively amounts to 11.86 trillion, surpassing last year's total of 8.96 trillion by 2.9 trillion, indicating a robust fiscal stimulus[2] - The 1.3 trillion ultra-long bonds, 500 billion special bonds, and 4.4 trillion special bonds correspond to an increase in the deficit rate by 0.9, 0.4, and 3.1 percentage points respectively, leading to an overall deficit rate of 8.4% for 2025, higher than last year's 6.6%[2] Policy Objectives - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand total demand, optimize supply structure, stabilize expectations, and mitigate economic risks, particularly in real estate and finance[3] - The government emphasizes the importance of enhancing transfer payments to local governments, ensuring basic public services, and alleviating fiscal pressures at the grassroots level[12] Structural Reforms - The report highlights the need for deepening fiscal and tax reforms, including zero-based budgeting and consumption tax reforms, to improve fiscal efficiency and support high-quality development[16] - The focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure aims to increase efficiency and effectiveness, with a notable rise in spending on healthcare, education, and social security, which accounted for 39.7% of the general public budget in 2024, up 4.4 percentage points from 2013[14]