继内蒙古之后，第二个符合退出债务重点省份条件的地区 随着一揽子化解地方政府隐性债务举措快速落地，又一个省份将退出债务高风险省份名单。 近日，吉林省财政厅在《中国财政》杂志上公开撰文称，当地风险防控实现历史性突破。截至2025年9月末，全省存量隐性债务余额下降近90%， 融资平台数量压减比例超70%，经国家专班复核评估，已符合退出债务重点省份条件，化债经验被财政部作为首期专报模板推广示范。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经，这是继内蒙古退出债务重点省份之后，第二个符合退出债务重点省份条件的地区。这不仅使得当地 政府投融资行为政策限制减少，推动当地经济发展，而且也给其他一些省份化债提供可复制范例，提振各地化债信心，也展示了中央化解地方债 务风险的决心与能力。 此前为了防范地方债务风险，中国将12个省份纳入债务高风险地区名单，政府投资项目受到约束。其中纳入上述名单中的内蒙古今年已经公开表 示当地退出债务高风险地区名单，吉林则是第二个公开表示符合退出上述名单条件的省份。 胡恒松分析，吉林省能够以较快的速度满足退出债务重点省份的条件，除了财政保障能力显著增强、资源资产改革成效突出和金融生态稳步优化 等原因外，还跟 ...

摘 要 融资平台出清不仅仅是形式上的"退平台"和"隐性债务清零"，更是政府融资职能的剥离、 政府信用的脱钩、政企关系的结构性调整、政企债务风险的隔离，以及更深层次上的地方国企改 革、地方政府财税体制改革和投融资机制体制的创新。实现融资平台出清是支持实体经济高质量 发展的必要举措、适应城镇化发展阶段转变的基本需求、关闭地方政府融资后门的直接手段以及 提升地方国企市场化竞争力的前提条件，其最终目标是化解地方债务风险、实现地方经济和国有 企业的可持续发展。有力有序有效推进融资平台出清，需要态度积极坚定、节奏合理稳妥、效果 符合预期。 转型后的融资平台短期内仍将与地方政府保持较紧密的关联联系，长期看与地方政府关系将 逐步弱化。短期来看，实现"真转型"需要过渡期，叠加"一揽子化债"的政策保护期，融资平 台整体信用资质不会显著下降，但需关注信用风险的分化。长期看，出清后融资平台的信用风险 水平则更多地取决于自身的现金流和偿债能力，受其市场化转型的进程和效果影响较大。 破局重整，信用重塑 --融资平台出清后信用风险变化浅析 联合资信 公用评级四部 |刘亚利|胡元杰 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 地方融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Local debt risk is considered one of the three major "gray rhinos" in the economic field, crucial for the overall construction of Chinese-style modernization. The exit of financing platforms and the market-oriented transformation of urban investment companies are essential for establishing a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve local debt risks, as well as achieving "development through debt reduction" [1]. Financing Platform Exit Situation - The local debt, primarily carried by financing platforms, has played a significant role in promoting local economic and social development. A series of government documents since 2010 have aimed to regulate and reduce the functions of these platforms, culminating in the 2024 "Document No. 150," which mandates the complete exit of financing platforms by June 2027, requiring them to clear hidden debts and transform into market-oriented entities [2][3]. Progress and Path of National Financing Platform Exit - By 2025, significant progress has been made in reducing the number of financing platforms, with a total reduction of 4,680 platforms, accounting for over two-thirds of the annual decrease. Some provinces, such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, have achieved exit rates of 76% and 66.5%, respectively, surpassing the national average [3][4]. Challenges and Difficulties in Financing Platform Exit - The exit process faces several challenges, including pressure to clear hidden debts, difficulties in obtaining consent from financial creditors, and unclear operational standards. The current economic environment, characterized by declining land transfer revenues and tight finances, exacerbates these challenges [6]. Urban Investment Company Transformation Path - Urban investment companies are experiencing a "three weaknesses" phenomenon in operations, management, and assets. The transformation process is focused on market-oriented, refined, and specialized development, with a shift towards becoming state-owned capital investment/operation companies, urban comprehensive operators, or industrial groups [7][8]. Transition to State-Owned Capital Investment/Operation Companies - The primary model involves integrating industrial investment with state-owned asset management, focusing on optimizing state capital layout and enhancing value preservation and appreciation. This transition is guided by national policies and aims to improve operational efficiency [9]. Transition to Urban Comprehensive Operators - Urban comprehensive operators are expected to provide a full range of services, from planning and construction to operation and management. This transition requires a clear urban development strategy and the expansion of diversified business operations [13][14]. Transition to Industrial Companies - The trend of urban investment companies rebranding as "industrial investment" reflects a strategic intent to alleviate local debt pressure and effectively promote industrial development. This involves optimizing industrial park operations and leveraging regional resource advantages [16][17]. Recommendations for Financing Platform Exit and Urban Investment Company Transformation - To achieve effective exit and transformation, a top-level design approach is necessary, focusing on short-term survival and long-term development. This includes establishing clear exit goals, optimizing asset and debt structures, and enhancing financial support mechanisms [19][20][21].

近期，多家媒体披露了地方政府强制接管民营供热企业的事件，引发广泛关注。这些事件虽发生在不同地点，时间也略有差异，但都暴露出相似的问题。让 我们深入剖析这两起典型案例，探寻其背后隐藏的深层原因。 首先聚焦甘肃岷县。宏源清洁热力有限公司董事长表示，公司于2018年与岷县政府签订了一份为期30年的《集中供热改造建设项目合作投资协议书》，并由 此获得了当地的供热特许经营权。随后的五年，该公司投入高达3.7亿元，用于建设供热管网和换热站等基础设施。然而，到了2023年，公司突然收到岷县 住建局发出的律师函，被告知将取消其供热特许经营权，并由岷县政府收回集中供热的经营权。 更深层次的原因可能与地方债务问题有关。岷县的案例中，民营企业直接质疑地方政府强制收回特许经营权是为了应付审计。据了解，2023年定西市审计局 出具的审计报告显示，岷县城投公司实施的多个项目未落实资金平衡方案融资要求，无铺垫流动资金，建议政府多方筹措资金确保项目完工，防止形成"半 拉子"工程。而2020年发行的三年期地方政府专项债恰好在2023年到期需要偿还，这与主管部门强行接管企业、收回特许经营权的时间点高度吻合。 在山东博兴县，这场供热民企争议的源头 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province's plan to issue 11.13465 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds reflects a refined approach to local debt management and is a significant step in the national strategy to mitigate local debt risks [1][3][4] Group 1: Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bonds differ fundamentally from ordinary refinancing bonds, as they are specifically designed to replace hidden debts with explicit government bonds, enhancing debt management transparency [3][4] - The issuance is part of a broader national strategy, with over 2.2 trillion yuan allocated for local government bonds in 2023 and an additional 1.2 trillion yuan planned for 2024, indicating a concerted effort to manage local debt risks [3][4] Group 2: Financial and Structural Impacts - The bond issuance is expected to optimize Hubei's finances by replacing high-cost, short-term hidden debts, thereby reducing interest expenses and alleviating short-term repayment pressures [4][5] - By incorporating hidden debts into a regulated government debt management system, the initiative aims to improve transparency and regulatory efficiency, allowing local governments to focus resources on investment, consumption, and public welfare [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - While the refinancing bonds provide immediate relief, they are seen as a short-term solution that does not fundamentally resolve the underlying debt issues, necessitating concurrent fiscal reforms and economic restructuring [5] - The issuance of these bonds marks a shift from a "coarse" to a "refined" approach in local government debt management, emphasizing the need for long-term balance through economic development and institutional innovation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fiscal achievements during the 14th Five - Year Plan include enhanced financial strength, stable macro - regulation, improved people's livelihood, and effective risk prevention. Over 60% of financing platforms have exited, and in the 15th Five - Year Plan, debt reduction and development will go hand in hand to promote a positive cycle between economic development and debt management [5][8][11]. - Gansu issued the first provincial - level implementation plan for the construction and operation of PPP stock projects, aiming to solve related problems and promote the compliance and stable operation of projects [5][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. News Reviews 3.1.1. Fiscal Achievements during the 14th Five - Year Plan - Fiscal macro - regulation has achieved new breakthroughs, with fiscal policies becoming more proactive, enhancing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and emphasizing expectation management. The deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 4%, and the total national general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The expenditure structure has been further optimized, with a more prominent people - oriented focus. Fiscal investment in people's livelihood is nearly 100 trillion yuan, and in 2025, 100 billion yuan is allocated for child - rearing subsidies and 20 billion yuan for free pre - school education [10]. - Local debt risks have significantly converged, with over 60% of financing platforms exiting. The "6 + 4+2 debt - reduction combination" has achieved positive results, and the Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of some new local government debt quotas in 2026 [11][12]. - Fiscal and tax reform and management have advanced in depth, forming a good pattern of more scientific budget management, more perfect tax systems, and more sound fiscal systems [13]. 3.1.2. Gansu's PPP Stock Project Plan - Gansu issued the "Implementation Plan for the Standardized Construction and Operation of Government - Social Capital Cooperation Stock Projects" on September 8, 2025. The plan has three - stage goals and proposes multiple measures to ensure the smooth construction of ongoing projects and the stable operation of operational projects [15]. 3.1.3. Early Repayment of Bonds by 29 Urban Investment Enterprises - 29 urban investment enterprises early - repaid the principal and interest of 29 bonds, with a total scale of 5.067 billion yuan, a decrease of 127 million yuan compared to the previous period. Most of the enterprises are in the eastern region, and the main rating is AA [17][18]. 3.1.4. Cancellation of Issuance of 4 Urban Investment Bonds - Four urban investment bonds with a planned issuance scale of 2.1 billion yuan were cancelled from September 10 - 12, 2025. As of September 12, 79 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 50.264 billion yuan [19]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds 3.2.1. Local Government Bonds - This week, 53 local government bonds were issued, with the issuance scale rising 223.02% to 301.672 billion yuan and the net financing rising 425.16% to 192.779 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose 13.59 BP to 2.17%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed 1.72 BP to 19.47 BP [20]. - Shenzhen issued 1 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau on September 9, and Hainan issued 5 billion yuan of RMB local government bonds in Hong Kong on September 12 [20][21]. 3.2.2. Urban Investment Bonds - This week, 131 urban investment bonds were issued, with the issuance scale rising 26.02% to 94.766 billion yuan and the net financing rising 56.269 billion yuan to 21.563 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.38%, a 0.56 BP increase, and the issuance spread was 80.48 BP, a 4.37 BP narrowing [25][27]. - Three overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2.84 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate was 4.11% [27]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 1.0684 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan [31]. - Short - term capital interest rates all increased. The trading volume of local government bond spot reached 434.793 billion yuan, a 15.64% increase, and most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 4.67 BP [31]. - The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 253.397 billion yuan, a 0.57% increase, and all maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 5.63 BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds all widened [33]. - Ten urban investment entities had 14 abnormal transactions of 10 bonds, with the number of entities and abnormal transactions increasing compared to last week, while the number of bonds remained unchanged [33]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 56 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, name changes, business scope changes, and changes in the use of raised funds [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady growth and positive performance of China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. as of mid-2025, with total assets reaching 1.68 trillion yuan, a 2.62% increase from the previous year [1] - The company's total liabilities amounted to 1.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.80% growth year-on-year, indicating stable business expansion [1] - Shareholder equity stood at 197.29 billion yuan, up 1.60% from the end of the previous year, demonstrating ongoing value creation for shareholders [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 2.281 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.78%, showcasing robust operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - In terms of risk management, China Cinda actively participated in the reform and risk mitigation of small and medium-sized financial institutions, acquiring nearly 60 billion yuan in non-performing loans from 54 local small banks, a year-on-year increase of 85.4% [2] - The company has been involved in real estate risk resolution, successfully implementing 19 projects in the first half of 2025, with an investment of 5.4 billion yuan, ensuring the delivery of 14,000 housing units and facilitating the resumption of projects worth over 75.7 billion yuan [2] - China Cinda established four real estate relief funds to support key projects in risk mitigation, while also providing intellectual support and tailored products for local government debt resolution, aiding in the transformation of local investment companies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese government is undergoing significant changes in its financing system, with a notable increase in government net financing while city investment bonds (CIB) are experiencing negative net financing [1][2] - In the first half of 2023, the net financing of government bonds reached 7.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, representing a growth of approximately 129% [1][4] - The net financing of city investment bonds saw a decline of 763.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 149%, indicating a tightening supply of CIBs [1][4] Group 2 - The decline in CIB issuance and negative net financing is a result of stricter regulations aimed at controlling new hidden debts and enhancing oversight of CIBs [2][4] - Despite the decrease in CIB financing, the government still needs to increase debt funding for major project construction to sustain economic growth amid complex internal and external conditions [2] - Infrastructure investment in the first half of 2023 grew by 4.6%, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points, supported by the acceleration of special local government bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [4] Group 3 - The ongoing transformation of city investment companies is being accelerated, with over 7,000 companies withdrawing from the government financing platform list last year [1] - The report from China Chengxin International indicates that while the pace of debt resolution is increasing, local governments still face significant repayment pressures, and the effectiveness of monetary policy and tools needs continuous observation [4] - The quality of the transformation among city investment enterprises varies, raising concerns about the restructuring of government-enterprise relationships and the potential for increased debt burdens due to "fake transformations" [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.00% this week, following a previous increase of 3.77% [1][13] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has risen by 16.59%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1] - Key banks to watch include China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index fell this week, with 17 out of 42 banks seeing an increase in stock prices [2][12] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 1.08%, while joint-stock banks saw a slight decline of 0.08% [2][15] - Over the past month, state-owned banks increased by 8.98%, while joint-stock banks rose by 9.80% [2][15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank's reverse repo operations decreased, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan this week [3][28] - The overnight SHIBOR rate rose to 1.33%, and the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased to 1.48% [3][31] - The average overnight repo rate for deposit institutions was 1.34%, reflecting a rise of 3 basis points [3][31] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 17,057.9 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 2,087.7 billion yuan compared to last week [4][41] - Financial bonds issuance was 4,071.5 billion yuan, up by 2,030.5 billion yuan from the previous week [4][41] - Government bonds saw a rise in yields, with the 1-year yield at 1.37% and the 10-year yield at 1.67% [5][43] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The issuance of interbank certificates totaled 4,259 billion yuan, an increase of 1,833 billion yuan from last week [54] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.61%, down by 1 basis point [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of today's futures main contracts. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while silver, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures will oscillate with an upward bias. Rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will also have a relatively strong oscillation, and crude oil futures will oscillate weakly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with Egyptian Prime Minister Madbouly, expressing China's willingness to strengthen development strategy alignment and expand cooperation in emerging fields [8]. - Chinese Vice - Premier Ding Xuexiang met with former US Treasury Secretary Paulson, stating that China is a major stabilizing factor in the world and hopes the US to develop mutually beneficial and stable economic and trade relations [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Finance interpreted policies restricting EU medical device procurement, with specific budget thresholds and exceptions for EU - funded enterprises in China [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center aims to promote high - quality new urbanization actions [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US negotiations, rumors about Huang Renxun's visit to China, and refuted von der Leyen's remarks on over - capacity [9]. - China's retirees' basic pensions have increased by 2% since January 1, 2025 [9]. - In the first half of this year, local governments issued nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, and experts suggest continuing debt risk resolution in the second half [9]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and considered appointing a "shadow chairman" [10]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025 [10]. - Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July and reducing the balance sheet [10]. - Fed's Daly believes the Fed may cut rates twice this year, with policy uncertainties [11]. - Fed's Musalem said future inflation expectations may rise due to tariffs [12]. - The US Department of Defense will invest $4 billion in MP Materials [12]. - US initial jobless claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week, while continuing claims remained high [12]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for polysilicon futures contracts [12]. - International oil prices fell due to concerns about global demand and an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories [12]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, supported by inflation concerns and central bank gold purchases [13]. - London base metals mostly closed higher, with copper prices showing an oscillatory trend [13]. - OPEC adjusted its global oil demand forecast, and OPEC + is discussing production adjustments [13]. - China's summer grain production was stable in 2025 [13]. - China's auto production and sales increased in June, especially for new energy vehicles [14]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar strengthened, and the exchange rate is expected to appreciate further [14]. - The US dollar index rose due to global trade uncertainties [14] 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all showed an upward trend with varying degrees of increase. It is expected that in July 2025, these stock index futures will have a relatively strong oscillation, and on July 11, they will continue this trend with specific resistance and support levels provided [15][19][20]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures both declined. It is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate weakly, with specific resistance and support levels given [40][42][45]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures showed an upward trend on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Silver futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias and may reach new highs [45][46][52]. Base Metal Futures - Copper futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Aluminum futures rose on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias. Alumina, zinc, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures all showed upward trends on July 10, and it is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate with an upward bias [55][61][66]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, but on July 11, the main contract will oscillate weakly. PTA and methanol futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 11, while PVC and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [7][102][108]. Building Materials and Metals Futures - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures all showed upward trends on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will continue to oscillate with an upward bias, and soda ash futures will oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [4][82][90]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate futures had a slight decline on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, it will oscillate with an upward bias and may attack resistance levels [79].