中国经济丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 房价回暖之前，消费何处掘金？ ——消费第二曲线系列之一 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 通过研究房价与消费的关系，我们得到 3 个核心结论：1）当前房价下行可能仍对消费有压制 作用，但影响集中在东南沿海地区。2）当前国内仍处在居民缩表前期，但区域分化大。中部、 西部、东北地区消费受缩表影响小，即便房价下行，居民消费也仍可能随经济景气复苏率先改 善。3）消费表现更好的区域，服务消费复苏势头良好，消费表现更弱区域，服务消费增速也相 对有韧性。地产周期后半段，服务消费强度或持续高于耐用品消费。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 房价回暖之前，消费何处掘金？ 2] ——消费第二曲线系列之一 [Table_Summary2] 当前，为什么需要观察房价与消费的关系 宏观层 ...

Core Insights - The financial data for June exceeded expectations, driven by three main factors: improved corporate liquidity due to debt resolution policies, strong foreign exchange settlement intentions under the expectation of currency appreciation, and a narrowing of household balance sheet contraction [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - The growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% in June, up from 8.7%, with new social financing amounting to 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan [1]. - New government debt reached 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, while new loans amounted to 2.36 trillion yuan, up 171 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - The balance of loans remained stable at a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%, with foreign currency loans increasing by 32.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.3 billion yuan, marking the third-largest contribution to June's social financing [1]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Financial Data - **Factor 1: Debt Resolution Policies** Corporate liquidity has significantly improved under debt resolution policies, with a notable increase in government debt and stable government deposits, leading to a substantial rise in corporate deposits and short-term loans [6]. - **Factor 2: Currency Appreciation Expectations** Following a weakening of the US dollar, corporate willingness to settle in foreign currency has surged, contributing positively to corporate deposits amid expectations of renminbi appreciation [6]. - **Factor 3: Household Balance Sheet Adjustments** The contraction of household balance sheets has narrowed, with a noticeable decrease in early repayment rates for housing loans in June, although the elasticity of household loan growth remains to be observed [6].